Sitrep 2025-12-02 19:04:30

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

TIME: 2025-12-02 1930Z SUBJECT: OPERATIONAL UPDATE – STEPNOHORSK AXIS ESCALATION AND HYBRID COERCION SYNCHRONIZATION

This report assesses the critical operational picture following the confirmed shift of the Russian Federation (RF) Main Effort Land Drive (MLD) towards the Zaporizhzhia Axis, synchronized with strategic information and diplomatic coercion.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

Domain	Assessment	Confidence
Battlefield Geometry	The primary operational focus is the Stepnohorsk Salient (Zaporizhzhia Oblast). RF Vostok Group elements, primarily the 37th Guards MRB, are consolidating staging areas, likely utilizing the confirmed flank position at Zelyony Gai. The defensive line of the UAF 5th Assault Brigade is exposed on the eastern flank.	HIGH
Environmental Factors	Confirmed enemy strike resulted in a significant power outage (approx. 5,000 subscribers) in the wider Zaporizhzhia district, potentially impacting tactical C2 reliability and civilian infrastructure immediately behind the front lines. Continued operational success of RF aerial assets (KABs, Gerbera loitering munitions) suggests favorable flying weather for both ISR and precision strike platforms.	MEDIUM
Force Dispositions	RF Sever Group continues fixation efforts in the Kharkiv region (Vilcha strike confirmed by MRLS fire). UAV groups (suspected Shahed/reconnaissance) detected moving north over Dnipropetrovsk (Vasilkivka), indicating potential deep strikes against UAF reserves or logistics supporting the Zaporizhzhia front.	HIGH

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Intentions & COAs	RF intention remains the rapid, synchronized execution of the Stepnohorsk MLD (MLCOA defined in previous report). This kinetic action is tied directly to high-level coercion, aiming to force a diplomatic concession while achieving a tactical breakthrough.	HIGH
Tactical Adaptations	The deployment of the "Gerbera" guided loitering munition targeting Mobile Fire Groups (MOGs) is confirmed as effective, creating a critical vacuum in tactical Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD). First observations of "Kuryer" Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) equipped for mine breaching confirm RF preparation for complex, high-speed penetration.	HIGH
Logistics Status	Logistics throughput remains high and critical. SAR score for the 260th Central Rocket Artillery Base is holding at 29.50, confirming the massive volume of ammunition required for the Stepnohorsk saturation fires is flowing forward. No immediate disruption observed.	HIGH
C2 Effectiveness	RF tactical C2 remains functionally effective, protected by systems like the Pantsir-S in critical fixation sectors (Kharkiv). However, the information domain shows signs of internal friction (detention of Z-blogger Ulyanov, milblogger infighting), indicating potential central security consolidation efforts that distract supporting IO narratives.	MEDIUM

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Posture & Readiness	UAF 5th Assault Brigade readiness is under severe stress due to flank exposure (Zelyony Gai), technological compromise (Gerbera), and energy infrastructure degradation in the rear. Readiness levels depend heavily on the successful implementation of the recommended HARP-1 AD doctrine shift (Emission Control and proxy fire).	MEDIUM
Tactical Status	Strategic setback confirmed with the operational loss of Pokrovsk (Donetsk Sector). Immediate tactical defensive stability is contingent on successfully interdicting the RF assembly in Zelyony Gai before the MLD initiation.	HIGH
Resource Constraints	The most acute constraints are tactical AD coverage and the uncertainty regarding immediate US aid shipment status. The kinetic gap left by MOG suppression must be filled by either high-value systems (risky) or active EW solutions (collection requirement).	HIGH

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

Domain	Assessment	Confidence
Propaganda/Disinformation	RF Information Operations (IO) are actively attempting to delegitimize US aid using sensational claims (Trump quote alleging "cash aid") to erode international public support and domestic Ukrainian morale. RF diplomatic IO is simultaneously generating maritime risk narratives (denial of ship attacks following Putin threats).	HIGH
Public Sentiment	UAF leadership (President Zelensky) is actively managing expectations regarding the strategic implications of the Moscow talks, emphasizing the national resolve ("no simple solutions") and the red line of "nothing decided without Ukraine." This messaging aims to stabilize morale against diplomatic coercion.	HIGH
Diplomatic Developments	The immediate operational timeline is now linked to the diplomatic timeline. UAF is awaiting signals from the US delegation following the Moscow meeting, defining the next strategic steps. European partners (Rutte) are signaling resilience and resistance to RF diplomatic signaling, suggesting alignment remains solid but stressed.	HIGH

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

Based on the confirmation of continued RF fixation (Kharkiv), high logistical throughput, and the successful tactical suppression of UAF AD capabilities, the operational tempo is assessed as accelerating toward the predicted MLD trigger time.

COA	Description	Trigger/Timeline	Confidence
MLCOA (Mechanized Breach & Ultimatum)	RF Vostok Group initiates the Main Land Drive on Stepnohorsk NLT 2025-12-02 2100Z. Utilizing "Kuryer" UGVs to breach the outer defensive belts under KAB saturation fires. The assault is expected to penetrate 5-8 km, securing ground for delivery of a synchronized political ultimatum via the Moscow channel NLT 2025-12-03 1200Z.	Confirmed RF consolidation in Zelyony Gai; Window for optimal breach conditions.	HIGH
MDCOA (Collapse Scenario)	RF exploits the MOG vacuum to neutralize UAF C2. Precision strikes (hypersonic/high-speed cruise missiles) target identified 5th Assault Brigade C2 nodes and rear logistics (e.g., Dnipropetrovsk) simultaneously with a verifiable leak confirming the comprehensive suspension of critical US AD interceptors. This aims to trigger a localized tactical collapse and a rapid RF operational breakthrough toward the Dnipro River.	Immediate C2 node failure; Confirmed public report on US aid cutoff.	MEDIUM

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Collection Requirement (CR)
PRIORITY 1 (EW/TECHINT)	Precise guidance system, frequency band, and operational range of the "Gerbera" anti-MOG munition.	CR-1: Immediate tasking of EW assets (SIGINT/ELINT) to the Stepnohorsk sector to characterize Gerbera emissions for rapid development of counter-EW (C-EW) jamming profiles.
PRIORITY 2 (HUMINT/GEOINT)	Confirmation of the specific contents and timeline of the reported US aid suspension.	CR-2: Dedicated HUMINT tasking in Washington D.C./EU capitals. CR-3: High-resolution SAR/GEOINT over Zelyony Gai and adjacent RF assembly areas to quantify the density and disposition of the 37th Guards MRB assault columns (Tanks, IFVs, support vehicles).
PRIORITY 3 (OPEVAL)	Operational performance and anti-mine effectiveness of the "Kuryer" UGVs.	CR-4: Capture or observation of disabled "Kuryer" UGV to determine control method, armor vulnerability, and exact mine-clearing capability.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate threat is the synchronized kinetic-diplomatic offensive centered on Stepnohorsk. Friendly forces must disrupt the kinetic trigger while navigating the strategic information environment.

Kinetic Interdiction (URGENT - J3):
- Execute maximum feasible fires (HIMARS/MLRS/Heavy Artillery) against pre-identified RF concentration zones in Zelyony Gai and surrounding support nodes NLT 2025-12-02 2000Z. This aims to delay the assault past the MLCOA trigger time and reduce the initial momentum of the 37th Guards MRB. The window for delay is extremely narrow.
Anti-UGV Countermeasures (IMMEDIATE - J3/J4):
- Task Force Implementation: Immediately establish dedicated, forward-deployed anti-UGV hunt teams within the 5th Assault Brigade, equipped with man-portable anti-materiel rifles and high-explosive charges, to prioritize the destruction of "Kuryer" UGVs before they breach the first defensive belt.
AD Doctrine Shift (CRITICAL - J6/J3):
- Full Enforcement of HARP-1 Protocol: All remaining MOGs and valuable tactical SHORAD platforms must move immediately to pre-prepared, hardened, concealed positions. Enforce strict EMCON, relying solely on passive detection and rapid shoot-and-scoot proxy fire to mitigate the Gerbera threat. Cessation of static open-ground AD posture is mandatory.
Strategic Communication (IMMEDIATE - NCA/J7):
- Proactive Narrative Control: Pre-empt the expected Russian diplomatic coercion by immediately publishing key points of the upcoming Dec 3rd meeting with US representatives. Reiterate the strength of the "Dublin Track" and confirm the recent €125M Irish aid package to provide a concrete counter-narrative against the unverified US aid suspension rumors and the RF propaganda about "cash aid."

Situation Report