Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) – CRITICAL ACTION WINDOW

TIME: 021245Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL PHASE: KINETIC-DIPLOMATIC CLIMAX UPDATE: The predicted synchronization of the RF kinetic main effort and high-level diplomatic talks is now confirmed and underway. Confirmed RF advances in Zaporizhzhia (Dobropolye claim) validates the imminent Stepnohorsk threat (ETA 1400Z). CRITICAL: UAF IO credibility has been severely compromised by the confirmed fabrication (AI video) by a key frontline unit (SKELIA Regiment) regarding Pokrovsk control. Immediate action is required to stabilize both the Southern flank and the national command authority's credibility.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Unchanged. Conditions remain favorable for mechanized maneuver and aviation support on the Southern Axis.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF: Tactical forces remain engaged (Chasiv Yar success). Strategic C2 is under extreme pressure from the convergence of RF kinetic threat, foreign diplomatic coercion (Moscow talks/German FM), and now a serious domestic IO scandal (SKELIA AI video).

RF: C2 synchronization remains maximal. Kinetic action (Dobropolye/Stepnohorsk) is directly coordinated with the opening of the Moscow negotiation track (Witkoff/Kushner arrival, 1400Z Putin meeting ETA).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): Achieve a demonstrative kinetic success (Stepnohorsk penetration or rapid capture of Dobropolye) precisely coinciding with the Putin/Witkoff/Kushner talks (ETA 1400Z). This is intended to force UAF concessions, potentially including a referendum on contested territory (German FM statement supports this RF strategic goal).

CAPABILITY (KINETIC): Confirmed high activity on the Stepnohorsk axis, leveraging the 37th Guards Motorised Rifle Brigade (Vostok Group). The advance on Dobropolye suggests the RF MLD is starting to maneuver, possibly seeking to outflank UAF defenses prior to the main armored thrust.

COA (IO/STRATEGIC): RF IO is now capitalizing on Western diplomatic participation (Kushner/Witkoff) to legitimize the Moscow track and is actively amplifying Western internal friction (German FM push for concessions). The SKELIA AI fabrication provides a massive, high-leverage opportunity for RF to globally delegitimize UAF claims of operational control.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF has immediately deployed tactical units (37th Guards MRB) to secure key peripheral settlements (Dobropolye) on the Stepnohorsk axis, moving the MLD threat line closer to the main defensive positions ahead of the 1400Z deadline.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Sustainment remains robust, evidenced by synchronized deployment (BMP-3s confirmed in previous ISR) and continued ability to execute strategic strikes against gas infrastructure.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly centralized and effective, achieving strategic synchronization across the political, diplomatic, and kinetic domains. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Tactical readiness is adequate in localized areas (Chasiv Yar). Strategic readiness and IO credibility are critically compromised. The SKELIA Regiment's use of AI deepfake technology to sustain an operational narrative is a severe failure of C2 and IO discipline, providing RF with irrefutable proof of UAF deception attempts regarding the Pokrovsk sector.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes: Successful defense and destruction of RF assault group in Chasiv Yar. Zelenskiy meeting with Irish Taoiseach Micheál Martin counters the Moscow narrative. Setbacks/Challenges:

1. SKELIA IO Failure: Catastrophic loss of IO credibility regarding the Pokrovsk sector.
2. Dobropolye Advance: Potential loss of Dobropolye or confirmed close proximity of 37th Guards MRB to the Stepnohorsk MLD line.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate confirmation of the status of Dobropolye and deployment status of reserves (e.g., 5th Assault Brigade) to Stepnohorsk. Given the confirmed RF maneuver, the window for preemptive reserve deployment is closed; attention must shift to immediate preparation for counter-attack or delaying actions.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is leveraging three simultaneous vectors:

1. Diplomatic Isolation/Coercion: Amplification of the Putin/Witkoff/Kushner meeting to signal Kyiv is being bypassed.
2. Western Friction: Dissemination of German FM comments regarding "painful concessions" and potential referendums.
3. IO Debunking: Using the SKELIA AI video incident to discredit all UAF operational claims, effectively framing UAF C2 as fundamentally dishonest.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public morale is under extreme duress from the simultaneous kinetic threat (Stepnohorsk), high-stakes diplomatic talks, and now the self-inflicted wound of the SKELIA deception. This requires an immediate and highly transparent counter-narrative from the NCA.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The presence of Jared Kushner (high-influence non-governmental actor) alongside Witkoff in Moscow significantly elevates the diplomatic threat, suggesting a US faction is serious about forcing a rapid settlement. UAF efforts (Ireland Summit) are essential but are fighting against the narrative of abandonment amplified by the Moscow track.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: STEPNOHORSK MLD SYNCHRONIZED WITH DIPLOMATIC ULTIMATUM (021400Z DEC) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) The assault begins at Stepnohorsk as planned (ETA 1400Z), exploiting the confirmed Dobropolye advance. Simultaneously, RF negotiators in Moscow will use the combined kinetic pressure (Stepnohorsk penetration) and the IO success (Pokrovsk deception crisis) to deliver an ultimatum demanding a ceasefire based on current or slightly advanced lines, with a high likelihood of demanding early talks on referendums or legal/political status changes.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: TACTICAL DECAPITATION STRIKE ON ZAPORIZHZHIA C2/RESERVES (Risk Level: CRITICAL/HIGH) RF leverages the ongoing AD drain and confirmed proximity to Stepnohorsk (via Dobropolye/other shaping operations) to execute a KAB/Missile strike against the forward operating base (FOB) or key logistical depot of UAF reserves (e.g., 5th Assault Brigade staging areas) necessary to defend Stepnohorsk, functionally paralyzing the kinetic response to the MLD.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operations and Force Protection (J-3/J-5)

1. Stepnohorsk Defensive Shift (J-3): Assume the Dobropolye advance is successful and has compromised the flank. Redirect all available long-range fires and reserve maneuver battalions (e.g., 5th Assault Brigade) to counter the confirmed 37th Guards MRB axis immediately. Use indirect fires to suppress the Dobropolye area to prevent RF consolidation before the main MLD hits.
2. AD Protection Priority (J-3): Given the confirmed infrastructure strikes and the MDCOA threat, temporarily prioritize SHORAD/MRAD protection for the Stepnohorsk operational reserve staging areas over general urban areas, specifically between Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. Defending the kinetic response capability is paramount.
3. Pokrovsk (J-3/J-5): Cease further attempts to reinforce the IO narrative regarding Pokrovsk control. Focus kinetic assets on interdiction fire out of the city to cover any potential organized withdrawal of the SKELIA Regiment, prioritizing preservation of combat power over holding the ground for political reasons.

7.2. Strategic Communications and Political Stability (NCA/J-7)

1. CRISIS IO RESPONSE (NCA/J-7): The President must issue a highly transparent, candid address NLT 021300Z DEC that executes the following:
   • Acknowledge SKELIA IO Failure: Publicly and immediately condemn the use of AI/fabricated media by the SKELIA Regiment as unacceptable and counter to Ukrainian values, while praising the regiment's defense efforts. Announce an immediate and public investigation to restore trust.
   • Frame Moscow Talks: Reiterate that the Moscow talks are RF’s desperate attempt to coerce peace through kinetic force, emphasizing that the legitimate track remains the Ireland Summit (Zelenskiy/Martin).
   • Reject Concessions: Explicitly and publicly reject the German FM's proposal for "painful concessions" or referendums as a non-starter, stabilizing the political red lines.
2. Strategic Diplomatic Push (J-7): Direct diplomatic channels (KYIV-LED TRACK) to push NATO allies to issue coordinated statements condemning the RF timing of the Stepnohorsk assault as an act of bad faith during the simultaneous Moscow "peace" talks.

//END OF REPORT//