Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) – MULTI-DOMAIN FUSION

TIME: 021000Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL PHASE: CRITICAL KINETIC PHASE // STEPNOHORSK BREACH IMMINENT // DIPLOMATIC BLACK SWAN WINDOW OPENING

SUMMARY: The RF kinetic main effort in Zaporizhzhia is validated by confirmed RF claims of capturing Zelenyi Hai. This puts the 5 OShB sector of the Stepnohorsk Main Line of Defense (MLD) under direct, immediate threat. Operationally, RF deep strike capability is confirmed effective, with UAF Ministry of Energy reporting widespread power outages across four oblasts following the mass-UAS attack. Strategically, the diplomatic timeline has accelerated: the Putin-Witkoff meeting is confirmed to begin NLT 021400Z DEC, creating the immediate pressure window for the anticipated kinetic breakthrough. UAF must prioritize decisive counter-fire on Zelenyi Hai and synchronized strategic communications regarding the 1400Z Moscow talks.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Weather remains cold, clear, and conducive to high-altitude ISR, UAS operations, and continued KAB employment. RF Air Force continues saturation strikes using Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) targeting Zaporizhzhia, Eastern Kharkiv, and Southern Sumy (confirmed multiple Air Force alerts 08:36Z - 08:46Z).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF: Defensive posture across the Southern and Eastern Axes. AD resource triage is critical following the confirmed power outages. Key maneuver units (5 OShB) are required to hold the Stepnohorsk MLD under high threat conditions. UAF C2 has demonstrated strong anti-corruption capability (Sheyko arrest), which mitigates internal risk but does not address kinetic shortfalls.

RF: RF is committed to a maximally leveraged synchronization strategy: kinetic advance (Zelenyi Hai consolidation) timed precisely with the opening of a high-stakes diplomatic channel (Moscow 1400Z). This forces UAF National Command Authority (NCA) to manage a kinetic crisis and a potential strategic diplomatic rupture simultaneously.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): RF intends to secure a tactical breakthrough at Stepnohorsk and use the resultant battlefield leverage to anchor the Putin-Witkoff 1400Z talks. The goal is to force the US special envoy to accept a conditional ceasefire based on the newly advanced Forward Line of Troops (FLOT). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CAPABILITY (CRI Attack): RF demonstrates confirmed and sustained capability to target and degrade UAF energy infrastructure across four major regions, successfully diverting AD resources away from frontline defense and maintaining strategic pressure on population centers. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

COA: Vostok Group will commence final preparation fires on the Stepnohorsk MLD NLT 021300Z DEC, aiming for armor-led breach NLT 021400Z DEC.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

1. Diplomatic Acceleration: RF shifted the timing of the Witkoff meeting forward, establishing an immediate strategic synchronization point earlier than the previously anticipated Trump 2100Z statement.
2. Long-Term Force Generation Messaging: RF is explicitly messaging new, comprehensive financial benefits for demobilized SVO veterans (08:55Z), signaling confidence in long-term campaign sustainability and successful internal resource management.
3. IO Response to Maritime Attacks: Pro-RF military channels are publicly debating "solutions" to UAF attacks on commercial shipping (Midvolga 2), indicating UAF deep strike operations are creating internal debate and requiring RF C2 to develop countermeasures.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Logistics remain sufficient to sustain high-volume KAB and UAS attacks across the theater. The confirmed power outages (Odesa, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk) suggest significant sustained resource commitment to AD attrition. The domestic focus on veteran support ensures stable morale and recruitment pools. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness is assessed as HIGH. The rapid, synchronized timing of the Zelenyi Hai kinetic capture claim, the confirmation of the Midvolga 2 UAV attack, and the precise scheduling of the critical Moscow diplomatic talks demonstrate excellent cross-domain synchronization designed to maximize pressure on the UAF NCA within a tight 5-hour window.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture is highly challenged due to confirmed AD exhaustion and consequent power grid degradation. The necessary dispersal of AD assets to protect population centers (confirmed by outages) directly reduces readiness to defeat the expected mechanized assault on Stepnohorsk. Units in the Kupiansk sector (15 NGU "Kara-Dag") report continued successful defense against "meat assaults," maintaining localized morale.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. Strategic Strike: Successful UAV attack on the RF vessel Midvolga 2 maintains pressure on RF maritime economic routes and forces resource diversion for defense.
2. Domestic Governance: High-profile arrest of former high-ranking energy official Yuriy Sheyko demonstrates unwavering commitment to anti-corruption efforts, boosting domestic confidence.

Setbacks/Challenges:

1. CRI Degradation: Confirmed power outages across four key regions stress civilian infrastructure and potentially impede military logistics/C2 redundancy.
2. Stepnohorsk Kinetic Threat: RF consolidation of Zelenyi Hai places the Stepnohorsk MLD at immediate risk of breach.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Constraint: Time and Kinetic Fire Superiority. The 5 OShB requires immediate, high-volume counter-fire support to dislodge/attrit the RF forces consolidating in Zelenyi Hai NLT 021130Z DEC. Failure to achieve this denial mission will result in high probability of MLD breach.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IE)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF is leveraging the Zelenyi Hai capture claim to project an image of operational momentum ahead of the 1400Z talks. Internal RF IO is focused on stability (veteran benefits) and counter-UAF maritime narratives (TASS and military bloggers discussing responses to Midvolga 2). Pro-Russian disinformation includes the claim of capturing Vovchansk (Rybár 08:37Z), likely to distract from operational reality.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is supported by the highly publicized anti-corruption sweep against the energy sector official (Sheyko), reinforcing public trust in governance during a critical military phase. Military morale is bolstered by tactical success reports (Kara-Dag Brigade video). However, the widespread confirmed power outages will inevitably test civilian resilience.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The immediate strategic priority is the Putin-Witkoff meeting at 1400Z. This meeting frames the entire operational picture for the next 24 hours. The potential for RF to demand a ceasefire based on current kinetic gains (Pokrovsk GLOC severed, Stepnohorsk MLD breached) is the central diplomatic risk. The later Trump statement (2100Z) remains a major factor but is now secondary to the immediate Moscow talks.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: KINETIC PUSH SYNCHRONIZED WITH DIPLOMATIC ULTIMATUM (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF Vostok Group completes consolidation of Zelenyi Hai by 021200Z DEC. Between 021400Z and 021600Z DEC, RF launches the maximum effort mechanized assault on the Stepnohorsk MLD. This breakthrough, even if localized, will be immediately amplified by RF media channels and used by the Russian delegation at the Moscow talks (1400Z start) to demand an immediate "de-escalation" (read: ceasefire on advanced lines), attempting to paralyze UAF and allied NCA response.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: CASCADING AD FAILURE AND STRATEGIC CAPITULATION DEMAND (Risk Level: CRITICAL/HIGH) RF launches a localized, high-precision electronic attack (EA) against remaining UAF C2/MRAD assets defending the Southern Axis, immediately following the confirmation of the widespread power outages. This opens a decisive air corridor, allowing heavy KAB saturation and close air support (CAS) that collapses the 5 OShB defense in the Stepnohorsk sector. Simultaneously, the Putin-Witkoff meeting leads to an ultimatum that, if rejected, is immediately backed by a strategic policy negative shift announced by the Trump 2100Z statement, maximizing strategic isolation and forcing UAF internal paralysis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operations and Force Protection (J-3/J-5)

1. Denial of Zelenyi Hai (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): Execute maximum density counter-fire mission against confirmed/suspected RF assembly areas and fire bases within Zelenyi Hai NLT 021130Z DEC. Utilize all available long-range artillery and HIMARS support. Objective: Delay RF operational timeline and degrade assault capacity to prevent synchronization with the 1400Z diplomatic window.
2. AD Triage and Hardening (CRITICAL): Direct immediate AD resource triage. Shift MRAD priority to protect the Stepnohorsk MLD reserves and established logistics routes over non-critical infrastructure targets. Implement reinforced EMCON protocols for AD assets confirmed operating in the four affected oblasts to prevent subsequent targeting.
3. Forward Counter-Mobility: Immediately deploy specialized UGV/mine-laying teams to critical gap sectors flanking the 5 OShB position at Stepnohorsk to maximize friction in the expected mechanized corridor (validated by previous successful TTPs).

7.2. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (J-7/NCA)

1. Counter-Moscow Narrative (CRITICAL/IMMEDIATE): NCA/MFA must release a statement NLT 021300Z DEC firmly rejecting any RF attempts to use tactical gains (Zelenyi Hai, Pokrovsk encirclement) as leverage for an imposed ceasefire. Emphasize that the Ireland Summit (Zelenskyy/Witkoff) is the only legitimate multilateral track.
2. Highlight Domestic Resilience: Immediately amplify the success of the high-profile energy sector corruption arrests (Sheyko case) to pivot the domestic narrative away from the kinetic setbacks and power outages, reinforcing UAF governance strength.
3. Black Sea Response: Leverage the Midvolga 2 strike attribution to reinforce the narrative of UAF capability to project force against RF economic interests, ensuring the message reaches international maritime stakeholders.

//END OF REPORT//