Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) – MULTI-DOMAIN FUSION

TIME: 020604Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL PHASE: CRITICAL KINETIC PHASE (RF Ground Assault Initiation)

SUMMARY: The operational situation is defined by the immediate initiation of the expected Russian Federation (RF) ground assault at the Stepnohorsk Main Line of Defense (MLD) (Zaporizhzhia Axis). This kinetic climax is being synchronized with a high-stakes Information Operation (IO) following RF claims of securing Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and Vovchansk. UAF National Command Authority (NCA) has successfully activated the Dublin diplomatic track (President Zelenskyy arrival) as a counter to RF diplomatic warfare. The status of the 5th Separate Assault Brigade (5 OShB) Command and Control (C2) remains the single most critical tactical uncertainty.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Stepnohorsk MLD (Zaporizhzhia Axis): The anticipated ground assault has begun within the 0600Z window. Forward UAF observers report initial RF armor contact and high-volume direct fire. The MLD integrity is currently under severe test. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Krasnoarmiisk/Vovchansk: RF Ministry of Defense (MoD) proxy channels claim the "complete occupation" of both Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and Vovchansk. If true, the RF has secured major strategic political objectives in Donetsk and Kharkiv axes. This claim must be treated as a primary IO threat and requires immediate tactical verification. (CONFIDENCE: LOW on factual claim; HIGH on IO significance)

Dnipro Rear Area: Official reports confirm an increased civilian casualty toll (4 KIA, 45 WIA) from the previous 24 hours of RF missile strikes. This confirms the enemy's intention to maintain pressure on critical population centers to drain UAF Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD) from the front.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist. Visibility remains high, favoring RF Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and target acquisition for ground assault elements.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are confirmed engaged in anti-armor and counter-mobility operations at Stepnohorsk. Reserve forces (e.g., those fixed due to the Pokrovsk situation) must maintain current hold lines pending confirmation of the Krasnoarmiisk claim.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): Achieve a localized tactical breakthrough at Stepnohorsk NLT 0700Z to demonstrate operational momentum while simultaneously utilizing alleged kinetic victories (Krasnoarmiisk/Vovchansk) for strategic diplomatic leverage. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CAPABILITY (IO/C2 Synchronization): RF demonstrates effective synchronization, framing potential localized advances (Stepnohorsk) within a narrative of sweeping operational success (Krasnoarmiisk/Vovchansk claims) to apply cognitive pressure on the UAF NCA during the Dublin summit.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF has executed a decisive shift of IO focus to the Donetsk and Kharkiv sectors via the alleged capture claims, drawing attention away from the Stepnohorsk MLD, which is currently the locus of kinetic activity.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The UAF deep strike on the Livny oil depot (Oryol Oblast) is now confirmed by open-source video evidence, validating the disruption to RF domestic fuel logistics. This strategic attrition effort continues despite intensive RF frontline kinetic operations. (D-S Belief: Military Action: Drone Strike on Fuel and Energy Complex in Oryol Oblast) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF strategic C2 remains robust, demonstrated by President Putin receiving visible updates from regional leadership (Kursk Oblast Governor). This contrasts with the assumed degraded C2 conditions that UAF forces are operating under at Stepnohorsk.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

The 5 OShB is currently executing the defense plan under maximum kinetic stress. The primary risk remains the loss of C2 integrity, which would severely degrade coordinated counter-mobility operations. Readiness remains high among forward units, but requires immediate reinforcement validation.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. Confirmed successful execution of the deep strike against the Livny oil depot.
2. Successful activation of the Dublin diplomatic track, reinforcing international support against RF IO.

Setbacks/Challenges:

1. Increased civilian casualties in Dnipro (4 KIA, 45 WIA).
2. The need to immediately verify the RF claims regarding Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and Vovchansk, which, if false, risk freezing UAF strategic reserve movements.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: C2 Status and Reserve Mobilization Authority. The NCA must be prepared to issue rapid (30-minute window) authorization for strategic reserves based on the confirmed status of the Stepnohorsk defense and the verifiable facts regarding the Krasnoarmiisk claim.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IE)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO channels (Дневник Десантника, Операция Z) are aggressively pursuing a two-pronged narrative:

1. Kinetic Victory: Establishing Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) and Vovchansk as definitive RF victories to signal the collapse of Ukrainian defense lines.
2. Transatlantic Fracture: Amplifying Western media reports (WSJ/Trump) suggesting that European resistance is the only factor preventing a US-brokered peace settlement, directly targeting the legitimacy of the ongoing Dublin summit.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

National morale requires immediate triage following the Dnipro casualty report. The confirmed operational success (Livny strike) and high-level diplomatic visibility (Dublin visit) must be amplified within the next 60 minutes to prevent the RF victory narratives from taking root. (D-S Belief: Psychological Impact: Morale Decline for Civilian Population, 0.019865)

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The arrival of President Zelenskyy in Dublin is a critical counter-IO measure, demonstrating active diplomatic engagement and continued Western support, directly contrasting with the RF narrative of European isolation and UAF vulnerability.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: INTENSIVE STEPNOHORSK BREACH ATTEMPT & IO MAXIMIZATION (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF assault elements (Armor/Mechanized Infantry) will sustain the breach attempt at Stepnohorsk until NLT 020800Z DEC. Simultaneously, RF state media will formalize the Krasnoarmiisk/Vovchansk claims to dominate the information space during the Dublin meeting, forcing UAF diplomatic representatives to address battlefield losses rather than strategic cooperation.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: C2 COLLAPSE AND OPERATIONAL EXPLOITATION (Risk Level: CRITICAL/IMMINENT) Successful RF penetration of the Stepnohorsk MLD, synchronized with confirmed C2 failure of the 5 OShB due to pervasive EW/counter-C2 kinetic action. This would necessitate an uncoordinated, costly UAF counter-attack and potential operational retreat in the Zaporizhzhia sector.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operations and Force Protection (J-3/J-5)

1. C2 RESPONSE (IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL): If C2 confirmation of 5 OShB fails by 0615Z, implement pre-authorized fire plans on a time-fused basis (e.g., execute counter-mobility fires at anticipated penetration corridors NLT 0620Z) without requiring C2 transmission, relying solely on pre-planned triggers.
2. ANTI-ARMOR PRIORITY (CRITICAL): Authorize maximum expenditure of long-range Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM) and coordinating fire from UGV/FPV teams against the lead RF armored elements at Stepnohorsk. Neutralize the command vehicle layer immediately.
3. IO CLAIM MITIGATION (URGENT): Until the Krasnoarmiisk claim is verified (NLT 0730Z), NO STRATEGIC RESERVE REDEPLOYMENT from the Stepnohorsk secondary sectors to the Donetsk axis. Maintain current reserve readiness level (Level 2).

7.2. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (J-7/NCA)

1. COUNTER-IO EXECUTION (IMMEDIATE): Launch a sequenced counter-IO package NLT 020630Z DEC:
   • Phase 1 (Tactical Counter): Publicly acknowledge the intense fighting at Stepnohorsk, while simultaneously confirming the destruction of the Livny oil depot. Frame the Livny strike as "payment for Dnipro."
   • Phase 2 (Strategic Counter): Amplify the visibility and success of the President's visit to Dublin (via RBK-Ukraina/Operatyvnyi ZSU channels) as proof of Ukraine's continued diplomatic strength, directly juxtaposing the event against the "Trump/WSJ" narrative of Western fracture.
2. CIVILIAN RESPONSE (URGENT): The Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) and Oblast Military Administration (OVA) must issue coordinated messages of support and confirm rescue efforts in Dnipro, demonstrating state resilience and competence, directly offsetting the confirmed high casualty rate.

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