Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) – MULTI-DOMAIN FUSION

TIME: 020545Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL PHASE: CRITICAL KINETIC/C2 STRIKE EXECUTION WINDOW (Stepnohorsk MLD)

SUMMARY: The operational picture remains dominated by the anticipated breakthrough attempt at Stepnohorsk (Zaporizhzhia Axis). RF kinetic preparations are confirmed to be at maximum intensity (663 strikes in 24 hours on the axis). The critical C2 decapitation strike window (020515Z - 020530Z) has expired without public confirmation of the strike. UAF deep strike capability remains robust, confirmed by successful nighttime operations against an oil depot in Livny, Oryol Oblast. The strategic IE has bifurcated, with critical positive news (Italy aid) offset by reports of a strategic financial setback (ECB rejection of frozen asset utilization). Immediate focus remains C2 survivability and tactical counter-battery action.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Stepnohorsk MLD (Zaporizhzhia Axis): Remains the primary main effort focus. The sheer volume of preparatory fires (663 strikes reported) indicates RF commitment to a breakthrough in this sector NLT 020600Z DEC. Huliaipole remains the publicly declared exploitation objective, fixing UAF operational thought processes on rear-area defense. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

Dnipropetrovsk Region: Continues to suffer from RF long-range strikes (KAB/Missile), resulting in four confirmed civilian casualties in Dnipro, emphasizing the requirement to drain UAF AD assets from the front. The situation in Kryvyi Rih is confirmed as "Controlled."

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist, continuing to favor high-fidelity RF ISR and the required precision targeting for the potential C2 strike execution.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF is maintaining high-tempo strategic attrition operations:

• Deep Strike Success: UAF kinetic assets successfully struck the Livny oil depot (Oryol Oblast). This confirms continued access to deep RF logistical nodes and sustained strategic pressure. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Front: UAF forces are enduring intense fire preparation. UAF defense posture must assume C2 systems are currently operating under redundancy/dispersal protocols, as the strike window has passed without confirmation of C2 integrity.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): Achieve kinetic contact and secure a breach head at Stepnohorsk. The current operational tempo strongly suggests the enemy intends to proceed with the ground assault even if the C2 strike was delayed or failed. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

CAPABILITY (Fire Support): RF has demonstrated the ability to sustain extremely high-volume fire support (663 strikes/24h) necessary for suppressing forward defense lines prior to the ground assault.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF continues to emphasize the effectiveness of its low-cost/high-yield weapons systems, specifically FPV drones, showcasing video evidence of attacks against UAF personnel. This highlights the continuing RF reliance on decentralized, tactical drone superiority to degrade UAF infantry resilience.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The UAF drone strike on the Livny oil depot (Oryol Oblast) represents a direct attack on RF domestic logistics required to sustain long-term conflict. While not immediately affecting frontline fuel reserves, it introduces supply chain friction and forces AD reallocation further into Russia. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in synchronizing kinetic operations (Zaporizhzhia fires) with layered Information Warfare (external distraction via Venezuela news; internal morale building via domestic donation praise).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are under critical pressure at the Stepnohorsk MLD. Resilience is confirmed by the ongoing deep strike campaign. Readiness is dependent on the ability of the 5 OShB to weather the current fire saturation and execute effective counter-mobility/anti-armor operations against the expected mechanized breach.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Successes:

1. Confirmed destruction of RF oil depot in Livny, Oryol Oblast.
2. Italy confirmed the 12th military aid package. Setbacks/Challenges:
3. 4 confirmed civilian fatalities in Dnipro, highlighting vulnerability to rear-area kinetic pressure.
4. The ongoing financial dispute regarding the €140B frozen assets (ECB report) threatens long-term strategic financing for UAF operations, which must be immediately addressed diplomatically.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Immediate verification of 5 OShB C2 status. The passing of the expected strike window demands immediate, low-emissions communication checks to confirm CP integrity and operational readiness.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IE)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO focus is shifting subtly:

1. Distraction: Amplifying US foreign policy (Trump/Venezuela) to dilute international focus on Ukraine.
2. Internal Cohesion: Highlighting domestic citizen support (donation reports) to reinforce the "people's war" narrative and boost troop morale.
3. Strategic Financing Sabotage: TASS report on the ECB refusal regarding frozen assets is designed to sow doubt among Western allies about the feasibility of long-term strategic financing for Ukraine. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

National sentiment is polarized: Grief over Dnipro casualties requires immediate, high-level official acknowledgment (Day of Mourning confirmed). This emotional strain must be immediately offset by amplifying the operational success (Livny oil depot strike) and confirmed external support (Italy aid package).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Positive: Italy approved the 12th aid package (kinetic support).
• Negative/Critical: The reported stance of the ECB regarding the €140B in frozen assets, if confirmed, represents a major block to UAF's long-term financial stability and must be treated as a priority diplomatic intelligence concern.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: MECHANIZED ASSAULT INITIATION WITH C2 STATUS PENDING (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF assault forces will initiate the ground assault NLT 020600Z DEC. The high volume of preparatory fires justifies the immediate commitment of lead elements. If the C2 strike was successful but unconfirmed, the assault will be executed into a degraded UAF defense. If the strike was aborted or failed, RF will rely on artillery saturation and FPV superiority to achieve initial breach points.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The Most Dangerous Course of Action remains the successful mechanized breach at Stepnohorsk accompanied by successful tactical electronic warfare (EW) to paralyze UAF C2. Given the expiration of the C2 strike window, the MDCOA threat now transitions from a single, high-yield kinetic event (Iskander) to a pervasive, multi-layered EW/C2 degradation effort synchronized with the ground assault. (Risk Level: CRITICAL/IMMINENT)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operations and Force Protection (J-3/J-5)

1. C2 EVASION (IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL): MAINTAIN RADIO SILENCE EXCEPT FOR URGENT FIRES/MANEUVERS. Assume that any confirmed RF EW activity is a substitute for the failed kinetic strike. Command authorities must use redundancy protocols and minimize emissions exposure during the 0600Z ground assault window.
2. COUNTER-MOBILITY FOCUS (CRITICAL): Authorize maximum density mine deployment (including remote/automated systems) and immediate authorization for coordinated anti-armor ambushes at anticipated MLD entry points. The 5 OShB UGV TTPs must be fully engaged immediately.
3. RESERVE HOLDING POSTURE (CONFIRM): Maintain current reserve positions. Do NOT redeploy forces toward Huliaipole based on RF IO shaping. Reserves must be held for the Stepnohorsk counter-attack or stabilization operations.

7.2. Information Operations and Strategic Communications (J-7/NCA)

1. IO COUNTER-PUNCH (IMMEDIATE): Launch a synchronized IO package NLT 020630Z DEC. Primary focus: Livny Strike Confirmation. Frame the Livny operation as "Direct Retaliation for Dnipro Civilian Casualties," emphasizing UAF capability to hold RF strategic assets at risk, regardless of frontline pressure.
2. DIPLO-IO MANAGEMENT (URGENT): The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) must immediately issue a statement welcoming the Italy aid package while simultaneously engaging European diplomatic channels to preemptively neutralize the negative narrative around the ECB/frozen assets. Frame the TASS/FT report as "RF diplomatic warfare designed to fracture Western cohesion."

//END OF REPORT//