Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 020304Z DEC 25 OPERATIONAL PHASE: Decisive Engagement (Stepnohorsk Axis) // Critical C2 Window Closure. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The operational situation remains volatile, centered on the confirmed RF decisive ground engagement in the Stepnohorsk MLD, now within the final 26 minutes of the kinetic peak window (020215Z - 020330Z DEC). The primary operational risk is the FAILURE TO CONFIRM 5 OShB C2 DISPERSAL COMPLIANCE, as the critical 020245Z DEC deadline has elapsed. The strategic deep-strike environment has momentarily stabilized, with the 'Yellow Level' air alert (likely tied to the previously reported Lipetsk UAV incident) being cancelled. This resolution frees RF attention/AD assets, increasing the probability of the MDCOA (C2 Decapitation Strike) if the ground assault stalls. Immediate action is required to implement C2 deception protocols for the 5 OShB.
The Stepnohorsk MLD (Main Line of Defense) remains the active kinetic CoG. RF armored thrust elements are currently engaged by UAF direct fire and anti-mobility barriers. Penetration depth is the critical measure NLT 020330Z DEC. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
No change. Clear, cold conditions favor high-altitude RF tactical aviation maneuvers and reconnaissance assets supporting the MLD assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
UAF forces are defensively committed. The situation regarding the 5 OShB C2 nodes is critical. The scheduled dispersal compliance deadline (020245Z DEC) is overdue. The assumption of operational success (execution of counter-mobility TTPs) must be balanced against the confirmed risk of exposed command nodes.
OPERATIONAL STATUS UPDATE: The previous "Red Level" deep operation status has been downgraded, evidenced by the general cancellation of a "Yellow Level" air alert in RF territory (020300Z DEC). This indicates the immediate UAF deep-strike threat has been resolved/contained, stabilizing RF rear areas. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): Achieve physical breach of the Stepnohorsk MLD before 020330Z DEC. CAPABILITY: RF continues to demonstrate highly effective integration of aviation shaping fires (FABs against near-rear, presumed CAS/PGMs at the front) synchronized with mechanized assault.
J-2 JUDGMENT (Adaptation): The cancellation of the internal air alert (020300Z DEC) signifies RF command is no longer distracted by an active domestic deep-strike threat. This improves RF C2 focus and increases the probability of rapid execution of the MDCOA (Precision C2 strike) should the Stepnohorsk ground assault falter or achieve only marginal gains in the next 20 minutes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
No change in frontline tactical adaptations at Stepnohorsk. RF focus remains fixed on breakthrough.
Adequate for current decisive phase. The successful suppression of the deep UAV threat secures near-term RF logistics and AD placement.
RF C2 remains HIGHLY EFFECTIVE. It has successfully managed a decisive frontline engagement while rapidly containing a strategic homeland threat. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Posture remains highly constrained by the C2 threat and the elapsed deadline. Operational readiness of the 5 OShB depends entirely on the resilience of its decentralized command structure. SHORAD resources are being stretched to cover deep logistics nodes and frontline C2.
Immediate Setback (C2 Integrity): The lack of timely confirmation regarding 5 OShB C2 dispersal compliance places the primary defensive force's command structure at heightened risk of targeted strike.
Deep Operations Status: The operational success of the deep strike (Lipetsk UAV threat) is now transitioning into the post-strike assessment phase, having achieved the operational objective of compelling RF attention and resource commitment.
CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Timely communication and confirmation of C2 status for the 5 OShB is the overriding operational requirement. The failure to confirm means resources (SHORAD/EW) must be diverted to protect assumed non-compliant locations until confirmation or deception protocols are established.
RF is executing a sophisticated, bifurcated IO strategy leveraging recent statements:
Morale must be protected from the dual impact of intense kinetic pressure at Stepnohorsk and RF geopolitical messaging designed to undermine faith in Western security guarantees.
The new CSTO narrative requires immediate and authoritative counter-messaging from the National Command Authority (NCA) to prevent perception of diplomatic weakness or RF success in isolating Ukraine from NATO.
MLCOA: MLD CONSOLIDATION/ATTRITION (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF ground forces will maintain maximum kinetic pressure on the Stepnohorsk MLD until the 020330Z DEC assessment window closes. If they achieve marginal gains (e.g., capture of forward trenches but fail operational depth >1.5 km), they will transition to high-attrition fire missions targeting UAF defensive lines and attempting to attrit reserves rather than commit the second echelon.
MDCOA: EXECUTION OF PRECISION C2 STRIKE (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) TIMELINE SHIFT: Given the clearance of the internal deep-strike threat (Lipetsk), the RF operational capacity to execute C2 decapitation has increased. If a decisive ground breakthrough is not achieved by 020330Z DEC, RF tactical aviation will execute high-value precision strikes (FAB/PGM) against high-probability UAF C2 nodes, particularly targeting the unconfirmed 5 OShB command locations.
| Event | Estimated Timeline (ETA) | Confidence | Decision Point/Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stepnohorsk MLD Penetration Assessment | 020304Z - 020330Z DEC (CRITICAL) | HIGH | Confirmed RF penetration depth >1.5 km (Execution of pre-planned counter-attack reserves). |
| RF Shift to MDCOA (C2 Strike) | 020330Z DEC - 020430Z DEC | HIGH | Confirmation that RF ground assault failed decisive breakthrough (e.g., attrition >30% or lack of penetration depth). |
| 5 OShB Deception Protocol Initiation | IMMEDIATE (NOW) | CRITICAL | CRITICAL DECISION POINT: Due to elapsed 020245Z DEC deadline, deception must begin now to protect nodes from impending MDCOA threat. |
| Priority | Gaps/Unresolved Questions | Collection Requirement (CR) |
|---|---|---|
| PRIORITY 1 (FRIENDLY C2 STATUS) | 5 OShB C2 Posture Verification. Has the required dispersal been achieved and are alternate CPs operational? Has the GHOST advisory been implemented since the 020245Z DEC deadline was missed? | SIGINT/HUMINT (Stepnohorsk Sector): Final confirmation of C2 status. If confirmation fails, assess compliance with emergency radio silence protocols. (Timeline: IMMEDIATE, NLT 020315Z DEC). |
| PRIORITY 2 (KINETIC EXECUTION) | Status of Pre-planned Fire Missions. Were the HIMARS/O-FAS strike missions targeting RF artillery/logistics (due NLT 020300Z DEC) successfully executed? | IMINT/TECHINT (Stepnohorsk Logistics): BDA on RF fire support positions to confirm execution and effectiveness. (Timeline: NLT 020400Z DEC). |
| PRIORITY 3 (STRATEGIC ATTRIBUTION) | Lipetsk UAV Target/Damage Assessment. What was the specific target type in Lipetsk, and what damage was confirmed? (Necessary for validating strategic deterrence impact). | OSINT/HUMINT (Deep Operations Zone): Collection on post-incident damage assessment and target identity. (Timeline: NLT 020600Z DEC). |
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