Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) – MDCOA RISK ELEVATED: KINETIC GAINS AND POLITICAL PARALYSIS

TIME: 012145Z DEC 25 (Updated from Previous Report) CONFIDENCE LEVEL: CRITICAL (Stepnohorsk Imminence & UAF Political Collapse)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture is marked by successful RF kinetic-IO synchronization on the Northern and Eastern axes, enabling focused preparation for the Main Effort Direction (MLD) in the South.

• Donetsk Axis (Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk): RF MoD, TASS, and primary military blogs (Rybar) have released synchronized video footage and official statements claiming the "liberation" of Pokrovsk (renamed Krasnoarmeysk). Video evidence shows flag deployment in the city center.
  • FACT: RF forces have achieved near-total operational control over the urban core.
  • JUDGMENT: Organized UAF defense or withdrawal options for the SKELIA Regiment are now exhausted. The operational focus shifts to preventing RF exploitation toward Pervomaisk (TASS claim).
• Kharkiv Axis (Vovchansk): RF (Rybar, Belousov) is concurrently claiming total victory and "liberation" of Vovchansk.
  • FACT: UAF 57th OMPBR reports enemy infiltration but explicitly states that the right bank of the Vovcha River remains under Ukrainian military control.
  • JUDGMENT: The Vovchansk claim is premature or intentionally exaggerated to maximize IO effect, but significant ground has been ceded, enabling Belousov to justify the continued advance of the "Sever" Group.
• Zaporizhzhia Axis (Southern Front): Remains the primary focus for the impending MDCOA. The window for pre-emption has fully closed.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist. Air Force confirms ongoing, unintercepted Group 1 UAV activity (likely Jet-Shaheds) moving from the Sumy/Kharkiv border area deep toward Poltava. This continues the AD drain strategy, pulling valuable Patriot/NASAMS assets away from critical front-line infrastructure and concentrations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF forces are achieving operational momentum and are leveraging strategic political messaging. UAF forces are reacting to the Pokrovsk collapse while attempting to maintain tactical resistance (93rd Mech UGV recovery, Azov NGU attrition reports). The immediate failure of the NCA to pass the 2026 budget severely degrades the political C2 domain required for decisive response.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intentions are focused on collapsing UAF resistance across strategic domains (Kinetic, Political, Cognitive) simultaneously to force immediate, unfavorable negotiations.

• Kinetic Synchronization: RF leadership (Belousov) immediately linked the capture of Vovchansk/Pokrovsk to facilitating broader advances for the "Sever" and "Center" groups (TASS confirmed push toward Pervomaisk). This demonstrates a cohesive operational strategy.
• Main Effort Direction (MLD): All indicators confirm the shift to the Southern Axis (Stepnohorsk). The successful IO masking campaign (Pokrovsk/Vovchansk claims) and the AD drain operation (Poltava UAVs) have created optimal kinetic conditions for the 55th Guards MLD initiation NLT 020000Z DEC.
• C2 Messaging: The visit of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief (Putin) to a command post on 30 Nov (MoD claim) reinforces the narrative of centralized, effective military control, directly countering the internal political chaos in Kyiv.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The key change is the immediate, high-level politicization of battlefield gains. New MoD Belousov is now the primary voice validating these advances, establishing a clear link between military success and the political/strategic agenda.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Confirmed persistence of deep UAV strike groups targeting the UAF rear (Poltava direction) demonstrates high sustainment capability for long-range precision fires and attrition-based AD degradation.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective and synchronized. The process (Kinetic action -> MoD statement -> TASS amplification -> IO exploitation of UAF political paralysis) is running on a highly condensed timeline. Confidence: HIGH.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive posture is strained by simultaneous kinetic collapse on the Eastern Axis and political failure in the capital. The deployment of UGV recovery systems by the 93rd Mech indicates ongoing technological adaptation and preservation efforts at the tactical level. READINESS: Operational readiness on the Southern axis is critically contingent on whether the secondary deep strike plan (Recommendation 1 in previous report) was executed NLT 012230Z DEC. The primary operational risk is the lack of confirmed status for the 5 OShB counter-preparation fire mission (Priority 1 Gap).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Political/Strategic): Confirmation that the Ruling Coalition failed to pass the 2026 State Budget (TASS/RBC-Ukraine). This is a critical failure, validating RF IO claims of instability.
• Setback (Kinetic): Confirmed collapse of Pokrovsk. Significant loss of ground and potential manpower in Vovchansk (57 OMPBR confirms infiltration).
• Success (Technological/Tactical): 93rd Mechanized Brigade demonstrated advanced TTPs for drone recovery using ground robotics, crucial for preserving scarce technological assets. Azov NGU reports successful, sustained attrition of RF forces.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate, verifiable kinetic action (e.g., deep strike confirmation) on the Stepnohorsk concentration to counter the IO narrative of unchecked RF advance. CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The budget crisis is an active constraint on strategic C2 and long-term sustainment planning, diverting NCA attention at a time of peak kinetic danger.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (RF)

RF IO is executing a devastating dual-vector campaign:

1. Kinetic Inevitability: Max amplification of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) and Vovchansk captures, validated by MoD Belousov, reinforcing the narrative of RF operational momentum.
2. Internal Chaos: Immediate, high-priority exploitation of the UAF budget crisis as definitive proof of systemic collapse and governmental failure. (DS belief score 0.12 - Internal Power Struggle).
3. Diplomatic Leverage: Linking battlefield gains to the confirmed deadlock between the US and UAF regarding territorial concessions (ABC News report, DS belief score 0.07).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is facing a severe test due to the confluence of claimed losses in two critical cities and immediate confirmation of high-level political paralysis. STERNENKO's commentary indicates awareness among influential civil society actors that RF is exploiting the current situation around the US envoy's visit (Witkoff).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The internal UAF budget crisis grants RF significant leverage in upcoming diplomatic engagements, especially concerning the US position on territorial concessions. RF will argue that Kyiv lacks the C2 stability and internal political mandate to continue fighting effectively, increasing external pressure for a "ceasefire on current lines."

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: STEPNOHORSK PENETRATION AND PUSH TO PERVOMAISK. (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will initiate the Stepnohorsk mechanized assault (Zaporizhzhia) NLT 020000Z DEC. Simultaneously, they will press eastward from the Pokrovsk gain toward the operational objective of Pervomaisk (TASS confirmed), maintaining fixing operations in Vovchansk (despite the UAF presence on the right bank). The focus remains on achieving an immediate, tangible strategic breakthrough in the South while converting the Donetsk tactical win into operational momentum.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: KINETIC-POLITICAL FORCED CEASEFIRE. (CRITICAL CONFIDENCE) RF achieves initial operational success in Stepnohorsk (penetration 15-20 km) NLT 020400Z DEC. They immediately leverage this success, coupled with the UAF budget collapse, to issue an international call for an emergency ceasefire. This call will be directed specifically at US/Western leaders (using the territory deadlock as justification), aiming to freeze the Line of Contact (LOC) on the achieved Stepnohorsk penetration and the captured cities of Pokrovsk/Vovchansk. This forces Kyiv to accept massive territorial losses under duress.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

7.1. Operations and Fire Support (J-3/J-5)

1. Immediate Stepnohorsk Counter-Action (J-3, CRITICAL ACTION): Assume failure of the primary counter-preparation plan. Commit all remaining strategic reserve deep strike assets (ATACMS/MLRS, if not already expended) to the Stepnohorsk corridor. The goal is maximum attrition of the 55th Guards during their formation maneuver NLT 012300Z DEC.
2. Kharkiv Defense Realignment (J-3): Reinforce the 57th OMPBR's position on the Vovcha River right bank with specialized engineers and ATGM teams to prevent immediate RF bridging operations. Containment of the RF gain in Vovchansk must be prioritized over counter-attacking the lost territory.
3. Forward Defense Command (J-3): Deploy a high-ranking, unified operational commander (OSh-South) to the Zaporizhzhia axis immediately to ensure rapid C2 during the assault, given the critical timeline (020000Z DEC).

7.2. Strategic Communications and Diplomacy (NCA/J-7)

1. Resolve Political Crisis (NCA, CRITICAL ACTION): The 2026 Budget must be passed or credibly resolved with a joint public statement NLT 020000Z DEC. Failure to do so will be seen globally as a strategic collapse, enabling the RF MDCOA.
2. Counter-IO on Vovchansk/Pokrovsk (J-7): Issue a precise, fact-based response regarding Vovchansk (confirming infiltration but insisting on continued control of the key river line) to immediately degrade the RF total victory narrative. Frame the Pokrovsk situation as a planned force withdrawal after a heroic defense.
3. Address US/UA Deadlock (NCA/J-7): The NCA must issue a direct, confident communication to the US delegation, explicitly rejecting the territory surrender option and emphasizing that political stability is maintained despite current challenges, guaranteeing operational continuity.

//END OF REPORT//