Sitrep 2025-12-01 07:34:31

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT 010/01 DEC 25

TIME: 010735Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS - TIME-CRITICAL KINETIC/COGNITIVE SYNCHRONIZATION. RF DEPLOYS TOS-1A. NCA DECISION WINDOW EXTREMELY NARROW (T-MINUS 25 MINUTES TO RESERVE COMMITMENT).

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kinetic pressure on the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) axis has reached the maximum projected intensity.

Pokrovsk CQC Confirmed: General Staff (GS AFU) reports confirm ongoing clashes near Shakhove, Pokrovsk, Hryshyne, and Rodynske (07:31Z). This validates the assessment of deep urban infiltration and direct threat to the Hryshyne-Pokrovsk sector.
GLOC Criticality: The M-30/H-20 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) remains the decisive point. Russian Ministry of Defence (RF MoD) confirmed the use of the TOS-1A Solntsepyok thermobaric system in the "Krasnoarmeysk direction" (07:06Z).
- Judgment: Use of the TOS-1A, a heavy, area-effect weapon, confirms RF intent to rapidly suppress UAF defensive strongholds and accelerate the collapse of organized resistance to secure the GLOC NLT 1000Z.
Southern/Northern Shaping: GS AFU reports ongoing high-intensity clashes in Lyman and South Slobozhansky directions (07:31Z), confirming RF continues fixing operations away from the main Pokrovsk effort.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Light snow reported earlier; currently insufficient to mitigate heavy weapon effects (TOS-1A).

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The UAF forward defense remains highly attrited but fighting. The use of advanced mechanical evacuation systems (NRK) by the Rubizh Brigade (07:10Z) is a direct indicator of high, immediate casualty rates in the urban environment. The National Command Authority (NCA) C2 system is severely compromised by synchronized political and informational crises.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Kinetic Capability	RF maintains capacity for overwhelming, concentrated fire (TOS-1A deployment) supporting deep infantry penetration. Air domain synchronization is confirmed by the 89-UAV overnight attack.	HIGH
Primary Intent	Immediate: Complete operational envelopment of Pokrovsk, severance of GLOC, and forced UAF withdrawal/entrapment. Cognitive: Leverage the political C2 paralysis (Yermak succession, US leak) to ensure the UAF strategic reserve commitment fails or is fatally delayed.	HIGH
Information COA	Maintain and accelerate the narrative of imminent UAF collapse, citing the US "Donbas Withdrawal Demand" as proof and the NCA political turmoil (Yermak succession) as evidence of incompetence. Claiming 700+ km² liberated in November (07:20Z) supports the strategic momentum narrative.	HIGH

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed deployment of the TOS-1A is an escalation designed to overwhelm UAF defenders using non-linear urban tactics. This indicates RF assesses the UAF defense structure in Pokrovsk outskirts requires extreme kinetic means to break quickly.

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF maintains highly effective, synchronized C2 between kinetic (TOS-1A, UAV surge) and cognitive (strategic leak exploitation, political crisis amplification) domains. RF state media (TASS) is actively tracking and reporting on the UAF NCA's attempts to replace the Head of the Presidential Office (07:30Z), directly feeding the instability narrative. (D-S Belief in Internal Power Struggle: 0.013, HIGH for an IO target).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Forward units (Rubizh, SKELIA) are engaged in survival combat, maximizing tactical innovation (NRK evacuation, drone success 5 OShB). The readiness of the strategic reserve remains the critical variable, dependent on the 0800Z NCA decision. The resilience story of a 47 OMBr soldier surviving 61 days of encirclement (07:30Z) highlights extreme dedication but also the cost of holding against overwhelming pressure.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Status	Event	Operational Impact	Confidence
Success (AIR DEFENSE)	UAF Air Force shot down/suppressed 63 of 89 RF UAVs overnight (70.8% efficiency).	Mitigated infrastructure damage and demonstrated sustained air defense readiness despite high volume, but the sheer size of the attack demands ongoing resource commitment.	HIGH
Setback (POLITICAL C2)	TASS and RF sources confirm active speculation and discussion regarding Yermak’s replacement, amplifying the impression of a national leadership vacuum.	Directly undermines public and international confidence 25 minutes before the kinetic decision point.	HIGH
Success (DEEP ASYMMETRIC)	5th Mechanized Brigade’s "Morok" unit demonstrated successful precision drone targeting against personnel.	Sustains localized attrition and reinforces UAF psychological superiority in precision asymmetric warfare.	HIGH

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Time is the ultimate constraint. Failure to commit reserves by 0800Z (T-minus 25 minutes) will likely negate the tactical viability of the maneuver due to confirmed TOS-1A saturation and imminent GLOC closure. Resources must be diverted for immediate counter-battery targeting of confirmed TOS-1A staging/support areas.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

Strategic Focus: Territorial Compromise (D-S Belief: 0.068): RF military bloggers (Podubnyy 07:14Z) directly assert that the US-UA negotiations were focused primarily on territorial questions, locking in the "Donbas Withdrawal" narrative. This is the primary COG targeting the NCA.
Internal Distraction/Exploitation: RF channels exploit the Yermak crisis, fabricating internal struggles (Yermak attempting to fire SBU Chief Malyuk 07:17Z) to paint the NCA as politically dysfunctional rather than focused on the front.
Domestic RF Normalization: RF domestic media pushes content promoting domestic stability (China visa deal 07:12Z, domestic tech control 07:26Z) and long-term militarization (VOIN youth training center 07:15Z), signaling a long-war footing while attempting to maintain internal coherence.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is under intense strain due to the dual kinetic (Pokrovsk collapse risk) and cognitive (US betrayal/forced surrender) shock. The NCA must immediately pivot the narrative: the operational success of intercepting 63 UAVs must be the primary anchor point used to counter fatalism regarding the perceived US/territorial betrayal.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The urgency of international messaging is amplified. Failure to decisively reject the "Donbas Withdrawal" narrative by 0830Z risks freezing allied action and potentially forcing partner countries (especially in Europe, per Rybar analysis 07:24Z) to pivot focus to internal security or military industrial buildup rather than direct support for Kyiv's maximalist goals.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces will achieve operational control over the Pokrovsk GLOC (M-30/H-20) NLT 011000Z DEC 25, utilizing concentrated thermobaric fire (TOS-1A) to destroy forward UAF CQC positions. Simultaneously, RF will intensify IO across all Western and domestic channels, framing the GLOC loss as irreversible strategic collapse caused by NCA indecision and political infighting. RF will then issue a formal diplomatic/military demand for a ceasefire based on current lines.

Timeline Estimate: Kinetic Success NLT 2.5 Hours; Negotiation Demand NLT 4 Hours.
Confidence: HIGH

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The failure of UAF to execute the 0800Z reserve commitment due to continued C2 paralysis allows RF to exploit the GLOC breach faster than projected. Utilizing the established air superiority in the Southern Operational Area (SOA), RF launches a coordinated mechanized breakthrough attempt toward Stepnohorsk and possibly Huliaipole (GS AFU reports activity in both 07:31Z/07:32Z). This forces the NCA into a catastrophic choice between reinforcing a collapsing Donetsk axis or preventing the severance of the Southern Front.

Timeline Estimate: MDCOA Initiation NLT 011800Z DEC 25.
Confidence: HIGH

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

CRITICAL KINETIC DECISION POINT: 010800Z DEC 25. (T-MINUS 25 MINUTES) NCA must approve and initiate the tactical deployment of strategic reserves to the Pokrovsk axis. Delay risks the entire force being committed piecemeal or arriving post-GLOC severance. CRITICAL STRATCOM DECISION POINT: 010830Z DEC 25. NCA/J9 must deploy the comprehensive counter-narrative (Protocol UNITY Phase IV) to stabilize domestic morale and address international partners regarding the Donbas Withdrawal leak.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Confidence in Gap Assessment	Collection Requirement (CR)
P-1 (CRITICAL KINETIC STATUS)	TOS-1A Deployment/Targeting. Precise locations (grid coordinates) of active or staged TOS-1A systems and their associated logistical vehicles (fuel, reloads) supporting the Pokrovsk push.	HIGH	IMINT/LIDAR/UAS Reconnaissance focused on rear areas of RF Tsentr Group of Forces, Krasnoarmeysk direction. NLT 010745Z DEC 25 (IMMEDIATE - Fire Mission Priority).
P-2 (POKROVSK GLOC SEVERANCE)	Real-time proximity of RF forward elements to the M-30/H-20 intersection west of Hryshyne.	HIGH	UAS/HUMINT reports from Rubizh Brigade forward observers. NLT 010755Z DEC 25 (CRITICAL).
P-3 (RF AIR C2 SOUTHERN AXIS)	Identification of C2 frequencies for the surged RF tactical aviation supporting activity near Stepnohorsk/Huliaipole.	MEDIUM	SIGINT/ELINT sweep focused on high-traffic tactical air frequencies in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. NLT 011000Z DEC 25.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

A. IMMEDIATE RESERVE ALLOCATION AND KINETIC STABILIZATION (J3/NCA)

EXECUTE 0800Z RESERVE COMMITMENT: The kinetic risk of delay outweighs the political risk of immediate action. Recommendation: Execute the GO decision for the strategic reserve commitment to the Pokrovsk axis immediately (NLT 010800Z DEC 25). The objective must be rapid counter-penetration to stabilize the GLOC, not urban attrition.
TOS-1A PRIORITY FIRE: Immediately allocate the highest priority deep strike and counter-battery fire missions against confirmed or highly suspected RF TOS-1A locations and their logistical support (P-1 CR). Suppressing thermobaric fire is essential to prevent rapid operational collapse.

B. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND COUNTER-NARRATIVE (NCA/J9)

PROTOCOL "UNITY" PHASE IV - IMMEDIATE LAUNCH (NLT 010830Z): The NCA must issue an unambiguous, high-level public address.
- Action: Explicitly denounce the "Donbas Withdrawal Demand" leak as a hostile IO campaign synchronized with the kinetic escalation (TOS-1A, 89 UAVs).
- Pivot Narrative: Focus the public eye on the demonstrated UAF defensive competence (63 UAV kills overnight, 47 OMBr/Morok unit resilience) while reaffirming the absolute red line on territorial sovereignty.
C2 STABILIZATION: Given the TASS reporting, the window for addressing the OP leadership vacuum is closing. Recommendation: NCA must accelerate the appointment of the new Head of the Presidential Office NLT 011000Z DEC 25 to present a unified front during the kinetic crisis negotiation window.

C. OPERATIONAL DEFENSE ENHANCEMENT (J3/J2)

SOUTHERN AXIS READINESS: Increase readiness levels for units in the Stepnohorsk/Huliaipole sectors to RED. Pre-position mobile EW assets and "Sting" interceptor units (as identified in previous reports) to counter potential RF MDCOA utilizing surged tactical aviation in the next 12 hours.

//END OF REPORT//

Situation Report