Sitrep 2025-12-01 07:04:33

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT 009/01 DEC 25

TIME: 010730Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: CRITICAL STRATEGIC PARALYSIS: US 'DONBAS WITHDRAWAL' LEAK ALIGNS WITH POKROVSK GLOC SEVERANCE (H-20/M-30). 0800Z RESERVE COMMITMENT IS NOW DECISION-CRITICAL.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kinetic pressure on the Pokrovsk axis is sustained and intensifying.

Pokrovsk Close Quarters Combat (CQC): UAF units (e.g., Rubizh Brigade) are confirmed to be utilizing mechanical evacuation systems (NRK), indicating high combat attrition rates and intense, localized fighting within the city outskirts.
- Judgment: The RF objective is operational envelopment and physical severance of the M-30/H-20 GLOC. The high tempo suggests RF readiness to pay higher kinetic costs to achieve this strategic goal before 011000Z DEC 25.
Donetsk KAB Use: RF is utilizing KAB (Guided Aerial Bombs) strikes directly on the Donetsk axis (07:00Z), providing continuous, heavy air support to assault elements.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Initial reports of light snow in the Donetsk area (07:01Z). No significant operational impact expected beyond marginal visibility degradation.

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The UAF kinetic defense remains localized but determined. However, the National Command Authority (NCA) faces a compounded crisis following the official dismissal of the Head of the Presidential Office (OP) and the subsequent leakage of highly sensitive diplomatic demands. The kinetic and cognitive domains are fully synchronized against UAF decision-making capability.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Primary Intent	Immediate Tactical Goal: Sever Pokrovsk GLOC NLT 011000Z DEC 25. Immediate Strategic Goal: Use the US "Donbas Withdrawal Demand" leak to paralyze Kyiv's 0800Z reserve decision and force immediate negotiations from a position of strategic weakness.	HIGH
Current COA Refined	KINETIC: Maintain KAB/artillery saturation and ground attrition to force UAF tactical surrender/entrapment in Pokrovsk. INFORMATIONAL (CRITICAL): Focus StratCom effort entirely on the "US/Donbas Withdrawal" narrative (06:51Z), framing the NCA leadership instability as preparation for strategic capitulation.	HIGH
Deep Strike/Fixing	RF maintains capacity for high-speed deep strikes (Mykolaiv alert 06:41Z) and is executing shaping operations in the North (Chernihiv UAV 06:43Z) to fix UAF air defense and strategic reserves.	HIGH

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The enemy has successfully shifted the information warfare Center of Gravity (COG) from NATO exclusion to the highly toxic "Strategic Territory Concession" narrative. This adaptation demonstrates RF's ability to precisely time diplomatic leaks to intersect with critical kinetic decision points (the 0800Z reserve commitment).

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF synchronization is highly effective. The current kinetic success is directly amplified by the severe C2 disruption within the NCA, which is forced to manage a dual crisis: a battlefield loss and an existential diplomatic controversy.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Forward-deployed units (SKELIA, Rubizh) maintain defensive integrity in Pokrovsk CQC, but are operating under high casualty assumptions (confirmed use of advanced casualty extraction methods). Strategic readiness remains dependent on the imminent 0800Z decision.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Status	Event	Operational Impact	Confidence
Setback (CRITICAL STRATCOM)	Media leak claiming US demanded full UAF withdrawal from Donbas during negotiation talks (06:51Z).	Creates immediate, severe political friction; risks domestic political fragmentation; validates RF collapse narrative internationally. Outweighs all recent IO gains.	HIGH
Setback (C2/POLITICAL)	Political friction surrounding the Yermak dismissal/post-dismissal engagement (06:35Z) and confirmation of high-level replacement search (06:44Z).	Direct operational distraction for the NCA at the kinetic decision threshold (0800Z).	HIGH
Success (DEEP STRIKE)	UAF UAS campaign continued overnight (RF claimed 32 intercepts).	Sustains pressure on RF logistics and forces resource commitment to air defense, despite RF success in Sumy and Kaspiysk follow-up.	MEDIUM

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The constraint is no longer physical resources but time to decision. The 0800Z kinetic reserve commitment must be made within the next 30 minutes. Furthermore, the NCA requires immediate access to validated information regarding the Donbas withdrawal demand to prepare a coherent rejection.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

"Donbas Withdrawal" Narrative (CRITICAL THREAT): This has replaced previous narratives. By attributing the maximalist surrender terms to a key Western ally (the US), RF seeks to induce fatalistic hopelessness among the Ukrainian public and political elite, freezing defensive actions.
Internal Friction Exploitation: RF military channels are actively utilizing reports of the OP leadership crisis (06:52Z) to depict the NCA as chaotic, fractured, and focused on internal purges rather than front-line defense.
Extreme Dehumanization (Black Propaganda): RF media is disseminating graphic, unverified claims of GUR operatives discussing the murder of a Russian general's family (06:44Z, 06:47Z).
- Judgment: This is designed to justify extreme RF kinetic retaliation and sever potential moral support for Kyiv among skeptical Western political factions.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public confidence is at high risk of collapse due to the perceived betrayal or forced surrender implied by the Donbas withdrawal demand leak. The internal political turmoil (OP succession) reinforces the perception of a leadership deficit during crisis. National remembrance efforts (07:00Z) are insufficient to counter this strategic narrative threat.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The Donbas withdrawal demand leak forces international allies into an immediate position of awkwardness. Kyiv must rapidly confirm or deny the veracity of the claim to prevent key partners (especially in the EU) from interpreting silence as tacit compliance with US pressure. The associated scandal involving US figures connected to the Kremlin (Witkoff, 07:02Z) adds complexity to the narrative structure.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces will achieve tactical control over the Pokrovsk GLOC NLT 011000Z DEC 25, physically isolating the forward UAF defense units. RF will immediately attempt to leverage this kinetic victory and the political paralysis caused by the Donbas withdrawal leak to initiate a political maneuver—calling for an "immediate cessation of hostilities" based on current lines, seeking to codify territorial gains under the guise of an inevitable strategic concession.

Timeline Estimate: Kinetic Success NLT 3 Hours; Strategic Negotiation Pressure Immediate.
Confidence: HIGH

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

RF observes the continued UAF C2 distraction and political paralysis (failure to make the 0800Z reserve commitment). RF then initiates a simultaneous, rapid, high-intensity breakthrough assault in the Southern Operational Area (SOA) near Stepnohorsk (utilizing heavy tactical aviation/Air Superiority score 13.88). The goal is an operational collapse on two major fronts, forcing the NCA to choose between defending Donetsk and preventing the severance of the Southern Front NLT 020200Z DEC 25.

Timeline Estimate: Next 12-24 Hours (Kinetic).
Confidence: HIGH

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

CRITICAL KINETIC DECISION POINT: 010800Z DEC 25. J3/NCA must execute the GO/NO GO decision on strategic reserve commitment to the Pokrovsk axis. Failure to commit by this deadline dramatically increases the risk of entrapment and operational loss of the Pokrovsk defense sector. CRITICAL STRATCOM DECISION POINT: 010830Z DEC 25. NCA/J9 must execute Protocol UNITY Phase III, now urgently tailored to neutralizing the "Donbas Withdrawal Demand" leak.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Confidence in Gap Assessment	Collection Requirement (CR)
P-1 (CRITICAL KINETIC STATUS)	Pokrovsk GLOC Status (M-30/H-20). High-certainty confirmation of RF units' proximity (distance/time-to-contact) to the primary GLOC to support the 0800Z reserve maneuver planning.	HIGH	IMINT/LIDAR/UAS Reconnaissance of M-30/H-20 choke points and Hryshyne exits. NLT 010745Z DEC 25 (URGENT - Decision Critical).
P-2 (STRATEGIC NEGOTIATION TRACE)	Detailed documentation and context of the alleged "US Donbas Withdrawal Demand." Is this a firm US position, a negotiation tactic, or a deliberate misattribution by UAF sources to pressure Kyiv?	HIGH	HUMINT/SIGINT/Media analysis focused on key US diplomatic/Pentagon sources (WSJ, NYT, Congressional staff). NLT 011000Z DEC 25 (CRITICAL STRATEGIC FOCUS).
P-3 (RF COMMAND POST LOCATION)	Identification of the forward RF Grouping of Forces (SGF) Command Post directing the Pokrovsk offensive to enable time-sensitive kinetic targeting (TLP).	MEDIUM	SIGINT (C2/ELINT) focused on high-traffic nodes along the Pokrovsk axis rear area. NLT 011100Z DEC 25.

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

A. IMMEDIATE RESERVE ALLOCATION AND KINETIC STABILIZATION (J3/NCA)

DEADLINE EXECUTION (0800Z): The Intelligence assessment supports the immediate and timely commitment of strategic reserves to the Pokrovsk axis to stabilize the line and prevent GLOC severance. Recommendation: Execute the reserve commitment (BLOCK/COUNTER-PENETRATION) as planned at 010800Z DEC 25.
KAB COUNTER-FIRE: Immediate allocation of priority fire missions to suppress confirmed RF KAB launch platforms/logistical hubs supplying the Donetsk axis. This is required to relieve direct air pressure on UAF urban defenders.

B. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND COUNTER-NARRATIVE (NCA/J9)

URGENT ACTION: PROTOCOL "UNITY" PHASE IV (DONBAS RED LINE). The NCA must issue a visual/official address NLT 010830Z DEC 25 to counter the "Donbas Withdrawal" leak.
- Message Focus: Unequivocal rejection of any negotiation requiring the surrender of sovereign territory, explicitly citing the Constitution and the UAF commitment to 1991 borders. Frame the leak as a hostile information operation designed to create domestic panic during a critical military defense.
INTERNATIONAL DAMAGE CONTROL: Diplomatic channels must immediately brief NATO and EU partners on the nature of the leaks (IO operation, potential Witkoff connection) and reaffirm that Ukraine's commitment to maximalist goals is non-negotiable. Request coordinated allied statements supporting 1991 borders NLT 011200Z DEC 25.

C. INFORMATION DEFENSE (J2/J9)

COUNTER-PROPAGANDA PREPARATION: Prepare high-level rebuttals (via GUR and MoD official channels) to neutralize the extreme Russian black propaganda regarding "GUR murder plots." Frame this as evidence of RF desperation and escalating psychological warfare targeting international public opinion.
C2 VACANCY MANAGEMENT: NCA must accelerate the appointment of the new OP Head to resolve the internal political instability and present a unified front to the public NLT 011400Z DEC 25.

//END OF REPORT//

Situation Report