Sitrep 2025-12-01 06:04:31

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT 007/01 DEC 25

TIME: 010700Z DEC 25

SUBJECT: IMMINENT POKROVSK GLOC SEVERANCE AMIDST CRITICAL NATO EXCLUSION NARRATIVE SHOCKWAVE

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (Current Operational Picture)

A. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Kinetic activity is peaking along the Pokrovsk axis, confirming the RF effort to meet the 011000Z GLOC severance deadline.

Key Observation: RF forces (DNR elements, specifically 57th MSP and 68th ORB) are confirmed actively clearing and consolidating positions in Nikanorovka (SW flank of Pokrovsk) (06:02Z). This validates the assessment that the Pokrovsk breach is intended for deep penetration and methodical consolidation, securing the main assault's approach routes and reinforcing the threat to the M-30/H-20 GLOC.

B. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Favorable conditions persist for UAS and ground maneuvers. However, the UAF report regarding a potential Russian-planned ecological disaster in Kherson (05:57Z) introduces a new, high-risk environmental variable requiring immediate defensive planning (See 4.A and 7.C).

C. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are sustaining CQC in Pokrovsk (SKELIA Regiment). The critical constraint remains the political and strategic C2 environment, which has been further destabilized by the coordinated Information Operations (IO) targeting Ukraine's strategic alliances (NATO). The window for optimal strategic reserve commitment (010800Z DEC 25) is now approximately one hour away.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

A. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Factor	Assessment	Confidence
Primary Intent (Refined)	Achieve kinetic severance of Pokrovsk GLOC (M-30/H-20) NLT 011000Z DEC 25. Simultaneously, leverage diplomatic leaks (NATO exclusion) and internal C2 friction (Yermak) to force immediate, unfavorable negotiations.	HIGH
Current COA Refined	KINETIC: Intensified close-quarters clearance in Pokrovsk and methodical consolidation in adjacent zones (Nikanorovka). Sustained deep strike pressure (Mykolaiv Shaheds). INFORMATIONAL: Maximum amplification of the alleged CNN report regarding NATO exclusion to induce strategic panic in Kyiv and among Western partners.	HIGH
Logistics	Sustainment remains adequate for immediate offensive needs. The constraint on UAF high-caliber fire support (post-Sumy) continues to enable RF tactical advantage.	MEDIUM

B. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmation of DNR/RF mechanized clearance efforts in Nikanorovka (06:02Z) demonstrates disciplined tactical execution aimed at isolating Pokrovsk, contradicting any notion that the urban infiltration was a localized raid. RF is executing a coordinated, multi-axis maneuver to secure the operational objective.

C. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF synchronization remains exceptional. They successfully introduced the NATO exclusion narrative into the IO space during the 0500Z-0700Z window, precisely when the UAF National Command Authority (NCA) is under maximum kinetic and C2 stress (Pokrovsk threat and Yermak dismissal). RF C2 is effectively exploiting the UAF decision cycle.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

A. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Forward kinetic readiness remains adequate, but the strategic decision-making apparatus is severely compromised. The convergence of the Yermak C2 crisis and the critical NATO exclusion IO campaign risks overwhelming the NCA and delaying the crucial 0800Z reserve commitment.

B. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

The successful defense of SKELIA regiment in Pokrovsk remains a tactical success (measured by high RF attrition), but this is outweighed by the severe strategic instability.

Status	Event	Operational Impact	Confidence
Setback (CRITICAL STRATEGIC)	CNN report (via TASS) on potential NATO exclusion settlement.	Directly attacks Ukraine's core national security objective, achieving Strategic Narrative Paralysis. Amplifies RF negotiation leverage significantly.	HIGH
New Threat (Contingency)	Alleged RF plan for ecological disaster in Kherson.	Requires immediate defensive resource allocation/contingency planning in the Southern Operational Area (SOA).	MEDIUM

C. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate requirements remain timely, high-caliber fire support and the guaranteed execution of the strategic reserve commitment. The new political/informational environment demands the immediate allocation of NCA resources to counter the strategic NATO narrative.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

A. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The IO landscape has reached a new peak of strategic toxicity:

NATO Strategic Attack (CRITICAL): TASS amplification of the CNN report (05:47Z) regarding potential NATO exclusion settlement is the most damaging IO development of the hour. RF seeks to frame Ukraine's defensive fight as ultimately futile and destined for capitulation on core principles, discouraging further international political support.
Terrorism & Legitimation (Sustained): Renewed focus on "prevented terror attacks" in Crimea (06:03Z) continues to reinforce the FSB narrative, aiming to justify future RF deep strikes and delegitimize UAF long-range capabilities.
Kherson Ecological Threat (High-Risk): The report of an alleged intercepted order regarding an ecological disaster in Kherson (05:57Z) must be treated as a potential preparatory IO move for a major war crime, designed to increase environmental and diplomatic leverage over EU countries bordering Ukraine.

B. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale is facing a combined kinetic (Pokrovsk), political (Yermak), and existential threat (NATO exclusion). Failure by the NCA to provide immediate, definitive clarity on the NATO status and the C2 transition will lead to widespread internal political fragmentation and erosion of military trust.

C. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The NATO exclusion narrative severely complicates ongoing discussions with US partners. It forces Kyiv to spend crucial political capital defending its strategic goals instead of focusing on immediate kinetic requirements (e.g., reserve commitment).

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future Operations)

A. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces will likely achieve operational control of the Pokrovsk GLOC NLT 011000Z DEC 25, leveraging their successful consolidation actions near Nikanorovka. RF will immediately deploy the NATO exclusion narrative (via state media and diplomatic channels) to demand a kinetic pause and freeze the existing battlefield geometry, effectively codifying the Pokrovsk success into a strategic gain.

Timeline Estimate: Next 3-6 Hours (Kinetic); Immediate (Diplomatic IO)
Confidence: HIGH

B. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The Stepnohorsk synchronized breakthrough remains the MDCOA. RF, observing UAF strategic paralysis due to the combined Yermak/NATO IO crises, executes a rapid, armored assault (T-80BVM focus) on the Southern Axis NLT 020200Z DEC 25. An MDCOA related to the Kherson threat (either a preparatory kinetic strike leading to an ecological event or using the threat of one to extort UAF positions) must also be considered in the SOA.

Timeline Estimate: Next 12-24 Hours (Kinetic); Immediate (Contingency/Kherson)
Confidence: HIGH

C. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

CRITICAL C2/KINETIC DECISION POINT: 010800Z DEC 25. NCA/J3 must confirm GLOC status (P-1, P-2 CRs) and execute the GO/NO GO decision on strategic reserve commitment. This decision must be isolated from the political IO crisis. CRITICAL STRATCOM DECISION POINT: 010830Z DEC 25. NCA/J9 must execute the revised Protocol UNITY strategy, specifically addressing the NATO exclusion narrative.

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap Description	Confidence in Gap Assessment	Collection Requirement (CR)
P-1 (CRITICAL KINETIC STATUS)	Pokrovsk GLOC Status (M-30/H-20). Current penetration depth and whether SKELIA Regiment is still able to move logistics along the route.	HIGH	IMINT/LIDAR/UAS Reconnaissance of Hryshyne/Pokrovsk ingress routes. NLT 010745Z DEC 25 (URGENT - Decision Critical).
P-2 (INTERNAL C2 STATUS)	Status of Office of the President (OP) Transition. Who is assuming operational oversight of the military campaign and diplomatic track immediately?	HIGH	HUMINT/Media analysis focused on key political figures. NLT 011000Z DEC 25 (CRITICAL STRATEGIC FOCUS).
P-3 (ECOLOGICAL THREAT VERIFICATION)	Verification of RF intentions/asset positioning in Kherson related to critical infrastructure (e.g., dam, chemical storage).	MEDIUM	SATINT/IMINT focused on key infrastructure in the Kherson area (specifically major river crossings and utility facilities). NLT 011200Z DEC 25 (CONTINGENCY PLANNING).

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

A. IMMEDIATE RESERVE ALLOCATION AND C2 MITIGATION (J3/NCA)

DEADLINE ACTION: POKROVSK RESERVE EXECUTION: The J3 must ensure the reserve commitment decision is executed precisely at 010800Z DEC 25. The decision-making process must be shielded from political distractions related to the Yermak dismissal and the NATO IO campaign. Recommendation is to proceed with commitment unless confirmed GLOC severance is already absolute.
ACTION: C2 FAILOVER CONFIRMATION: Confirm that the delegation of kinetic response authority for the Stepnohorsk MDCOA (Southern Axis) has been explicitly delegated to the appropriate Operational Command commander until NCA stability is restored.

B. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND COUNTER-NARRATIVE (NCA/J9)

URGENT ACTION: REVISED PROTOCOL "UNITY" (PHASE III). The NCA must issue a visual, authoritative address NLT 010830Z DEC 25 (30 minutes post-reserve decision) that prioritizes the following points:
- Directly Confront NATO Exclusion Narrative: Authoritatively reject any suggestion that Ukraine is negotiating core principles or NATO aspirations. Frame the CNN report as deliberate RF disinformation aimed at undermining the war effort.
- Reaffirm C2 Stability: Detail the temporary/permanent transition of authority in the Office of the President to demonstrate continuity.
- Operational Focus: Emphasize the commitment of reserves and the success of the Alabuga strike/attrition rates to focus public attention on kinetic stability.

C. MDCOA AND CONTINGENCY MITIGATION (J3/GUR)

ACTION: KHERSON ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE: Immediately alert international environmental and humanitarian partners (via diplomatic channels) regarding the alleged RF ecological threat to establish a pre-emptive diplomatic shield. Simultaneously, GUR/J3 must allocate technical teams to assess and secure vulnerable infrastructure in the Kherson area (P-3 CR).
ASSET PRIORITY (STEPNOHORSK): Reconfirm the rapid deployment schedule of "Sting" interceptor units to Stepnohorsk (NLT 011400Z DEC 25) to counter the anticipated RF tactical aviation surge supporting the MDCOA.

//END OF REPORT//

Situation Report