Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTSITREP)

TIME: 302104Z NOV 25 OPERATION: Joint Defensive Maneuver (JDM) // Multi-Axis Crisis Synchronization (MAC-S) PERIOD: H-302034Z NOV 25 to H-302104Z NOV 25 ANALYST JUDGMENT: The kinetic threat to the Kostiantynivka GLOC remains critically high due to the confirmed failure to execute the R-1A fire mission as previously tasked. Simultaneously, new data confirms RF is employing tactical aviation in the Eastern sector, increasing the confidence in the MDCOA (Northeast fixation). While the Information Environment is stabilizing through effective UAF/US strategic communications, immediate tactical action is required to prevent operational collapse in Donetsk NLT 310400Z.

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SITREP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Night conditions favor RF UAS operations across all domains (Deep Strike and tactical reconnaissance). Visibility remains restricted for close air support in Pokrovsk.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF (BLUE): SKELIA Regiment maintains CQC defense in Pokrovsk. Commitment of strategic reserves (R-18) to the Borova axis is pending. Current control measures prioritize strategic IO stabilization over immediate kinetic action, compounding the risk in Donetsk.
• RF (RED): High synchronization between ground forces in Donetsk and tactical air assets in the East. IO focus is slightly reduced following Umerov/Rubio counter-messaging but is sustained.

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

Intent: Achieve operational success (GLOC severance) in Donetsk while leveraging synchronized fixing maneuvers (East/Northeast) and sustained deep strike pressure to force UAF compliance with territorial and non-bloc status demands in subsequent diplomatic rounds.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF adaptation focuses on kinetic synchronization. The confirmed use of tactical aviation in the East suggests a direct response to the planned UAF reserve movement (R-18), aiming to fix these forces and prevent their transfer to the Donetsk critical axis.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF deep strike activities (Lipetsk alert, previous Taganrog strike) are actively working to destabilize RF rear area logistics. RF logistics rely heavily on the robustness of their AD over key nodes (Belgorod/Black Sea claimed intercepts).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is demonstrating high effectiveness in multi-domain synchronization (Ground, Air, IO).

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Operational Readiness: SKELIA Regiment is at maximum stress capacity. Readiness depends entirely on immediate, effective fire support. Strategic C2: The NCA has effectively utilized the Rubio statement to solidify the strategic narrative regarding long-term security. This successfully deconflicts the political domain, allowing C2 focus to return to the critical kinetic situation in Donetsk.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (IO Stabilization): Umerov/Rubio messaging has significantly neutralized the "capitulation" narrative (Confidence: HIGH).
• Success (Deep Strike Penetration): The Lipetsk alert validates UAF capacity to strike high-value, deep targets, creating strategic friction for RF.
• Setback (Kinetic Paralysis): The critical delay and apparent failure to execute the R-1A fire mission against Pokrovsk concentrations is an operational failure, maximizing the risk of GLOC severance.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. Kinetic Execution (Donetsk): CRITICAL need for immediate, heavy fire support.
2. AD/EW Coverage (North/East): Urgent need to deploy EW assets and mobile AD units to counter the surged RF tactical aviation and persistent RF reconnaissance UAS (Chernihiv, Kharkiv).

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Primary Narrative: Focus shifting from "Kyiv capitulated" (largely defeated by Rubio) to emphasizing ongoing tactical success (Pokrovsk breach) and highlighting UAF transport vulnerability (Sever FPV claims). UAF Counter-Narrative: Strongly affirmed "tangible progress toward a just peace" backed by US guarantees of "long-term security." This narrative currently holds dominance in the diplomatic sphere.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is likely bolstered by the strong US diplomatic language and confirmed deep strike capacity (Lipetsk). However, any confirmation of GLOC severance in Donetsk will immediately erode this support.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

High confidence in continued US long-term security commitment (Rubio confirmation). The immediate diplomatic crisis regarding talks failure has been averted.

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: GLOC Severance and Consolidation (Confidence: HIGH) RF forces, capitalizing on the absence of interdictory fire (R-1A failure), will successfully sever the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka GLOC NLT 310400Z. This kinetic success will be followed by a consolidation phase around Pokrovsk and increased IO focusing on the operational isolation of Ukrainian defenders. RF tactical aviation in the East will continue to fix UAF reserves (R-18).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Synchronized Breakthrough and Deep Exploitation (Confidence: HIGH) RF achieves GLOC severance in Donetsk. Simultaneously, the tactical aviation activity in the East transitions into an air assault/deep reconnaissance operation, distracting UAF C2. If UAF Strategic Reserves (R-18) are successfully fixed by the Eastern threat, RF forces may achieve a localized breakthrough in the South (Stepnohorsk) or accelerate the push toward the Krasny Lyman sector, enabling a deeper operational envelopment.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

---

ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1A (CRITICAL): EMERGENCY KINETIC INTERVENTION (J3)

ACTION: J3 must immediately shift from a scheduled fire mission approach to an Emergency Fire Mission Plan (EFMP). Divert available MRLS (Multiple Rocket Launch System) or precision artillery assets from a less critical sector to execute Fire Plan Delta NLT 302130Z. Focus on suppressing immediate RF infiltration axes and preventing reinforcement flow into Pokrovsk. PRIORITY: Prevent tactical collapse and GLOC severance in Donetsk (IMMEDIATE, LIFE-SAVING).

R-18 (CRITICAL): RESERVE PROTECTION AND MOBILITY (J3 / J2)

ACTION: J3 must deploy enhanced short-range mobile Air Defense (AD) and Electronic Warfare (EW) assets with the R-18 stabilization reserve moving toward Borova. The confirmed RF tactical aviation threat in the East validates the MDCOA and necessitates force protection to ensure the reserve arrives capable of combat. J2 must monitor RF air frequencies in the Eastern sector (CR P2). PRIORITY: Counter RF fixation maneuver and ensure reserve force integrity (CRITICAL).

R-25 (MODIFIED): DEEP STRIKE TARGETING OPTIMIZATION (J2/ISR)

ACTION: Capitalize on the Lipetsk alert. J2/ISR must immediately analyze the deep penetration data and prioritize follow-up strikes (NLT 310400Z) against identified high-value logistical or production targets beyond the immediate border regions (e.g., specific rail hubs supplying the Donbas front). PRIORITY: Sustain pressure on RF strategic sustainment (URGENT).

R-26 (NEW): NORTHERN AD ADJUSTMENT (J3/AD Command)

ACTION: Immediately task regional Air Defense commanders to adjust posture and readiness levels in the Chernihiv/Kharkiv sectors based on the recent RF UAV movement patterns (302052Z, 302058Z). Focus on deploying interceptor systems (e.g., "Sting" units, as detailed in the previous daily summary) to preempt deep strikes against infrastructure. PRIORITY: Protect rear-area infrastructure and logistics from sustained RF deep strike (URGENT).

---

INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)

//END OF REPORT//