Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTSITREP)

TIME: 301904Z NOV 25 OPERATION: Joint Defensive Maneuver (JDM) // Multi-Axis Crisis Synchronization PERIOD: H-301834Z NOV 25 to H-301904Z NOV 25 ANALYST JUDGMENT: The operational picture has reached CRITICAL ESCALATION on both the kinetic and informational fronts. RF forces are actively utilizing tactical success (Pokrovsk assumed severance) to activate secondary axes (Borova/Oskil) and intensify IO efforts globally. The synchronization of confirmed kinetic fire (Sumy KAB launches, Borova offensive) with immediate IO weaponization (Sevastopol civilian casualty claim, maritime pollution narrative) confirms the enemy's intent to induce strategic paralysis. Immediate execution of R-1A (Pokrovsk stabilization) and R-15 (IO countermeasure) is mandatory.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Night operations continue. Low visibility and cloud cover may benefit long-range KAB strikes (Sumy) and deep UAV/USV operations (Crimea/Black Sea). The RF narrative regarding oil leakage from the tanker incident suggests heightened environmental sensitivity in the maritime domain.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF (BLUE): Forces in Donetsk are fighting to prevent encirclement/collapse in the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka corridor. UAF is attempting to draw RF AD focus south (Crimea raid) while adapting to the KAB threat (confirmed counter-KAB success). Reserves are now dangerously split between the Stepnohorsk threat and the emerging Borova threat.
• RF (RED): RF C2 has successfully synchronized the Borova offensive (Northeast) with the Pokrovsk main effort (Donetsk) and the strategic IO campaign. RF is leveraging external validation (Turkey, perceived US negotiation weakness) and immediately weaponizing negative tactical outcomes (Sevastopol casualty, maritime pollution).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

Intent: Force strategic capitulation by establishing multi-axis kinetic and informational dominance.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The most significant tactical adaptation is the immediate commitment of resources to the Borova/Oskil axis. This forces UAF to re-prioritize the use of its limited maneuver and fire support reserves away from the main Donetsk effort, effectively maximizing RF gains for the Pokrovsk offensive without direct commitment of additional high-value assets there.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are supporting multi-axis fire and maneuver. UAF counter-logistics (Alabuga strike) provides long-term degradation, but immediate operational sustainment remains robust, evidenced by KAB launches (Sumy) and continued offensive momentum (Borova).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust and highly synchronized across the geographic combatant commands (Northeast, South, East) and the strategic messaging apparatus.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Donetsk (SKELIA): CRITICAL. Forces are engaged in active CQC/urban defense but are severely stressed and require immediate fire support (R-1A) to break contact or hold defensive lines toward Kostiantynivka. Air Defense/Adaptation: HIGH. Confirmed successful counter-KAB weapons testing (301857Z) is a vital technological success against RF air dominance. This success must be leveraged for morale and defense stabilization. Reserve Status: STRESSED. The emergence of the Borova threat critically strains the J3's ability to allocate forces between Donetsk (Main Effort), Stepnohorsk (Decisive Shaping Effort), and Borova (New Major Threat).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Confirmed adaptation to the KAB threat (nearly 100 successful intercepts reported over autumn). Continued execution of deep strike missions (Crimea).
• Setback (Operational): Confirmed new offensive pressure on the Borova/Oskil line, immediately forcing UAF recalibration.
• Setback (Informational/Tactical): The alleged civilian casualty in Sevastopol provides RF with a potent, immediate IO tool to undermine UAF long-range strike legitimacy.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. Immediate Fire Support: Execution of Contingency Fire Plan Delta (R-1A) to stabilize the Kostiantynivka defense.
2. Northeast ISR/Stabilization: Urgent ISR coverage and allocation of a rapid reaction force to the Borova axis (CR P3 - MODIFIED).
3. IO Countermeasure Assets: Immediate NCA activation to neutralize high-impact narratives (Sevastopol casualty, Turkish FM, maritime pollution).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO campaign is operating at maximum saturation, targeting both international and domestic audiences simultaneously:

• De-legitimization of Deep Strike: Claims that UAF strikes (Sevastopol/Turkish EEZ) are causing indiscriminate civilian casualties and environmental disasters. Intent is to erode international acceptance of UAF long-range capabilities.
• Diplomatic Coercion: Persistent narrative that Ukrainian leadership (Umerov/Zelensky) is internally divided and preparing to surrender key territories following US/international pressure, reinforced by ambiguous third-party statements (Turkey FM) and diplomatic unknowns (Lukashenko in Oman).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Domestic morale is under extreme pressure. The combination of critical territorial loss (Pokrovsk) and strategic rumors (territory exchange) risks immediate public disillusionment. The UAF must use confirmed defensive successes (counter-KAB) and the deep strike initiative (Crimea) to rapidly re-anchor the domestic narrative on resilience and technical superiority.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Lukashenko's undisclosed travel to Oman (301849Z) is a wildcard. While direct military impact is LOW, it suggests a potential third-party attempt at backdoor diplomacy or resource negotiation that may indirectly affect the political landscape, requiring P2 (Diplomatic context) clarification. International sentiment remains fragile, leaning toward resolution via negotiation, which the RF is actively reinforcing.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Operational Isolation, Northeast Fixation, and Global IO Blitz (Confidence: HIGH) RF will focus the next 6-12 hours on consolidating the Pokrovsk interdiction, using the Borova/Oskil offensive to fix UAF forces in the Luhansk Oblast. The primary strategic effort will be maximizing the global visibility of the "UAF collapse/capitulation" narrative, utilizing the alleged Sevastopol casualty and maritime disaster claims to maximize political pressure on Kyiv NLT 302000Z NOV.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Synchronized Triple Axis Breakthrough (Confidence: MEDIUM/HIGH) RF forces achieve decisive success in the Borova sector, rapidly advancing toward the Kupiansk-Izyum GLOC, forcing a panicked UAF retreat from the Northeast. Simultaneously, they commit reserves to fully sever the Kostiantynivka defense line while the Stepnohorsk front (Southern Axis) is breached under the cover of tactical aviation supremacy, leading to a multi-front operational collapse.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1A (MODIFIED): EXECUTE FIRE PLAN DELTA AND STABILIZE KOSTIANTYNIVKA (J3/J2)

ACTION: J3 must confirm the immediate allocation of necessary artillery/MLRS fire support to the Kostiantynivka defensive positions. Execute Contingency Fire Plan Delta immediately to deny RF consolidation and provide fire corridors for disengagement or reinforcement of UAF elements (SKELIA Regiment) in the Pokrovsk periphery. PRIORITY: Prevent kinetic collapse in the Donetsk operational area (IMMEDIATE).

R-15 (REVISED 3.0): NCA EMERGENCY SOVEREIGNTY ASSERTION AND NARRATIVE PIVOT (NCA / J7)

ACTION: The National Command Authority (NCA) must execute the high-level statement NLT 301930Z NOV. The statement must be forceful and integrate the confirmed technological success (counter-KAB systems) while directly addressing: 1) The RF 'capitulation' narrative; 2) The Turkish FM quote; 3) The alleged Sevastopol civilian casualty (emphasizing precision targeting of military/naval assets). PRIORITY: Neutralize political and morale crisis (IMMEDIATE).

R-18 (MODIFIED): RAPID ISR AND DEFENSE ALLOCATION TO BOROVA AXIS (J2/J3)

ACTION: Immediately re-prioritize ISR assets (P3 CR) toward the Borova/Oskil axis to determine the unit strength and composition of the escalating RF offensive. Prepare and move a pre-designated stabilization reserve unit to the Kupiansk-Izyum GLOC approaches to preempt a deep breakthrough targeting UAF operational depth in the Northeast. PRIORITY: Prevent RF from fixing UAF reserves and opening a major new front (URGENT).

R-21 (NEW): COUNTER-PROPAGANDA FOR PRECISION STRIKE LEGITIMACY (J7/MID)

ACTION: Launch a rapid, detailed public information campaign to preemptively refute the RF claims of indiscriminate targeting in Sevastopol. Emphasize UAF adherence to the laws of armed conflict, confirming that all deep strikes target legitimate naval and military infrastructure, while expressing regret over collateral damage that is actively weaponized by the enemy. PRIORITY: Protect international legitimacy of deep strike capabilities (URGENT).

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)

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