Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (INTSITREP)

TIME: 301734Z NOV 25 OPERATION: Joint Defensive Maneuver (JDM) // Integrated Counter-Penetration Phase PERIOD: H-301704Z NOV 25 to H-301734Z NOV 25 ANALYST JUDGMENT: The operational crisis in the Donetsk-Pokrovsk axis is reaching its immediate culmination point (GLOC severance NLT 301800Z NOV). The failure/delay to confirm the execution of the R-1B FFE/SHORAD deployment (overdue NLT 301730Z NOV) is the highest current tactical risk factor. Simultaneously, the RF Information Operations (IO) campaign has rapidly shifted from the "resignation" narrative to a higher-impact, politically corrosive narrative regarding "territorial exchange and election schedules" in US-Ukraine negotiations (WSJ/Dempster-Shafer confirmation), which requires immediate strategic communications counter-action.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

Donetsk-Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): RF forces confirm deep penetration into the Pokrovsk periphery, with claims of "clearing UAF" on the northern outskirts of Krasnoarmiisk (301728Z NOV). This validates that the RF penetration is severe and consolidation is underway. The kinetic objective has been identified as establishing conditions for pushing toward Kostiantynivka via Ivanopillya (301733Z NOV). Southern Axis (ESCALATING): Confirmed reports (Rybar, 301706Z NOV) detail ongoing RF offensive operations focused on enveloping Huliaipole in the Eastern Zaporizhzhia sector. This directly supports the previous MDCOA assessment of synchronized pressure.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant change. Sub-freezing conditions enable persistent UAV/FPV operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• UAF (BLUE): The SKELIA Regiment remains engaged in Close Quarters Combat (CQC) within Pokrovsk (301705Z NOV), confirming continued fierce resistance despite RF claims of consolidation. The status of the R-1B FFE/SHORAD package (critical support element) is unknown and past the deadline (301730Z NOV).
• RF (RED): RF is executing the consolidation phase in Pokrovsk and simultaneously intensifying shaping operations in Zaporizhzhia (Huliaipole). RF C2 maintains synchronization across kinetic and information domains.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

RF intent is leveraging the Pokrovsk breach to force strategic diplomatic concessions while simultaneously preparing a secondary breakthrough in the South.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The RF has articulated its immediate follow-on objective: using the Pokrovsk breach to enable a push on Kostiantynivka. This requires urgent assessment of UAF defenses along the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka GLOC.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are capable of supporting the high-tempo, multi-front offensive, with visible resourcing of the Southern Axis shaping operations.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly adaptive, immediately pivoting the IO campaign to exploit the highly sensitive WSJ report, proving effective coordination between strategic influence assets and frontline intelligence.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Tactical Readiness (Pokrovsk): CRITICAL. Failure to confirm R-1B deployment status exposes the SKELIA Regiment to total envelopment. Strategic Readiness (NCA): HIGH/MEDIUM. Diplomatic efforts show positive atmosphere (Kyslytsya, Witkoff assessments), which stabilizes external relations. However, the reported inclusion of "territory exchange" in talks introduces an immediate, severe political vulnerability domestically and internationally.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success (Tactical): SKELIA Regiment maintains CQC resistance in Pokrovsk, slowing the RF consolidation.
• Setback (Operational): The R-1B FFE/SHORAD deployment is overdue, representing a failure to meet the critical operational timeline NLT 301730Z NOV.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The most immediate constraint is the lack of confirmed tactical fire support in Pokrovsk. Secondary constraint is the sudden requirement for a highly coordinated, sensitive strategic communications plan to counter the "territory exchange" narrative without undermining diplomatic efforts.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF "Diplomatic Decapitation" campaign has shifted focus:

1. Territorial Compromise Narrative (NEW CRITICAL VECTOR): The WSJ report (301731Z NOV) amplified by pro-Russian channels and confirmed by high Dempster-Shafer belief scores, reports that US-Ukraine talks include "territory exchange" and "election schedules." This directly plays into the RF narrative (301514Z NOV) that US/Western citizens are dictating the future of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
2. Leadership Corruption: Continued targeted attacks against key Ukrainian officials (Yermak, 301732Z NOV) to sow internal distrust.
3. Counter-Messaging Success: Initial UAF success in neutralizing the immediate "ceasefire/resignation" narrative via positive statements from Kyslytsya and Witkoff is now threatened by the new WSJ leak.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The previous threat to morale due to political ambiguity is compounded. If the "territory exchange" report gains traction domestically, it will severely erode public trust in the NCA and potentially paralyze mobilization efforts.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Diplomatic atmosphere is assessed as "positive" and "constructive." However, the sensitivity of the leaked negotiation topics forces a severe re-evaluation of diplomatic risk. International partners will demand clarification regarding territorial exchange claims.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (Future operations)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: GLOC Severance and IO Weaponization (Confidence: HIGH) RF forces will achieve tactical control over the Pokrovsk GLOC NLT 301800Z NOV. This kinetic success will be immediately paired with the maximal amplification of the "territory exchange" narrative across all informational domains, targeting domestic opposition and international partners NLT 301900Z NOV, aiming to delay UAF reserve commitment.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Synchronized Dual Breakthrough (Confidence: HIGH) RF initiates a synchronized ground assault in the Eastern Zaporizhzhia sector (Huliaipole/Stepnohorsk), leveraging the confirmed shaping operations (301706Z NOV) NLT 302000Z NOV. This breakthrough would aim to force a UAF operational decision paralysis: commit reserves to the collapsing Donetsk front or the threatened Southern axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1 (A) (CRITICAL STATUS CHECK): CONFIRM FFE FIRING STATUS (J3/J2)

ACTION: J3 must immediately provide a status update on FFE Package Bravo. If the package has not achieved firing status (NLT 301745Z NOV), activate Contingency Fire Plan Delta utilizing reserve long-range assets (e.g., HIMARS/ATACMS if feasible) for direct fire suppression of RF consolidation points in the northern Krasnoarmiisk outskirts to stabilize the SKELIA Regiment's withdrawal route. PRIORITY: Prevent total collapse and loss of SKELIA Regiment (IMMEDIATE - 15 minute window).

R-15 REVISED (STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS): SOVEREIGNTY ASSERTION (NCA / J7)

ACTION: The NCA must issue an emergency, high-level statement NLT 301815Z NOV specifically addressing the WSJ report. The communication must:

1. Acknowledge that sensitive, future-oriented topics are discussed in high-level talks (e.g., post-war reconstruction, security guarantees).
2. Explicitly and forcefully repudiate any discussion or acceptance of "territorial exchange" or concessions of sovereignty.
3. Frame the specific claims of territorial exchange as Russian intelligence efforts aimed at sabotaging diplomatic momentum and creating domestic panic. PRIORITY: Neutralize the high-impact "territorial compromise" IO narrative and maintain NCA political stability (IMMEDIATE).

R-17 (NEW): SOUTHERN AXIS DEFENSIVE SHIFT (J3/J5)

ACTION: In light of confirmed RF offensive operations targeting Huliaipole, immediately adjust defensive posture in the Eastern Zaporizhzhia sector. Pre-position mobile anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) systems and dedicated drone hunting/EW teams (leveraging the successful 5 OShB UGV TTP) to cover the likely RF axes of advance towards Huliaipole. This is a pre-emptive measure against the MDCOA. PRIORITY: Prepare for synchronized breakthrough attempt, fix RF forces in the South (URGENT).

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INTELLIGENCE GAPS & COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS (CR)

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