Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 300800Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: STEPNOHORSK OPERATIONAL CRISIS // POKROVSK FIXATION INTENSIFICATION // STRATEGIC AD SUCCESS EXPLOITATION

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (CURRENT OPERATIONAL PICTURE)

The operational crisis on the Southern Axis remains unresolved. The RF Vostok Group continues its synchronized kinetic and C2 denial assault against UAF defenses near Stepnohorsk. Concurrent intense ground combat in the Pokrovsk sector confirms the RF strategy to fix UAF operational reserves.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The Line of Contact (LOC) pressure at Stepnohorsk continues to test the C2 and morale of the UAF 3rd Assault Brigade (3 ABde).

• Confirmed Fixation (Pokrovsk/Donetsk): Heavy fighting reported near Novohrodivka, with RF units attempting advances toward Krasny Lyman – Hryshyne and through the inter-positional space north of ‘Kovalykha’ toward Udachne – Serhiivka (300710Z, 300720Z). This confirms RF is fully committing assets to the central fixation effort, validating the previous assessment that this sector is designed to absorb UAF reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Zaporizhzhia Rear Pressure: UAF air alerts for UAV activity in Zaporizhzhia Oblast (300714Z) indicate continuous RF reconnaissance and potential targeting runs in the critical Stepnohorsk operational rear.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Sub-freezing temperatures persist. RF confirmed the success of their "Thermal Denial" strategy through a strike on Vyshhorod (300730Z), resulting in increased civilian casualties, despite the overall defensive success of UAF AD.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

3 ABde remains engaged in defensive fighting against the Vostok Group in the Stepnohorsk breach area. UAF forces in the Pokrovsk sector are heavily tasked with neutralizing high-tempo RF mechanized and infantry assaults.

• Strategic Defensive Success: UAF Air Force confirms a successful night defense, intercepting/suppressing 104 out of 122 adversary UAVs and 0/2 Ballistic Missiles (300705Z). This represents a kill ratio of 85% against the saturation strike, significantly mitigating strategic damage.

---

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is unchanged: achieve operational breach at Stepnohorsk supported by C2 degradation and reserve denial.

• RF Fundraising Correlates with Kinetic Focus: Pro-Russian channels are actively fundraising specifically for the Zaporizhzhia Front (300703Z).
  • JUDGMENT: This confirms that the Stepnohorsk axis is the current operational priority for resource allocation and morale messaging within the RF ecosystem. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Drone Doctrine Validation: RF sources confirm the use of FPV assets to engage specific hardened targets (e.g., "chimney" strikes in Pokrovsk, 300720Z), highlighting localized tactical sophistication even within the fixation zone.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No fundamental change, but the RF fixation effort at Pokrovsk shows resilience, employing combined arms (armor, up to four BBM, and multiple assault groups) to penetrate UAF defenses (300710Z).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are actively sustained, evidenced by the high-tempo fighting at Pokrovsk and continued funding appeals for the Zaporizhzhia Front. The focus on new Kazakh corridors (per previous reports) remains a critical vulnerability for UAF to exploit.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF strategic C2 remains effective in coordinating the hybrid shock strategy (kinetic assault, fixation, thermal denial, and NCA destabilization IO). Tactical C2 remains aggressive, particularly in integrating EW and A2A assets at Stepnohorsk.

---

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture remains reactive defensive, now critically dependent on the reserve commitment timeline. AD readiness is HIGH and validated by the 85% intercept rate (104/122 UAVs). Frontline readiness in the Pokrovsk sector is being severely tested by high attrition rates and sustained mechanized attacks.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• CRITICAL SUCCESS: The interception of 104 UAVs represents a major strategic defensive victory, denying RF the cognitive and physical shock sought from a massive saturation strike. This must be exploited immediately in the Information Environment.
• Setback: Despite the high intercept rate, the strike on Vyshhorod resulting in increased civilian casualties confirms RF retains the capability to bypass defenses and execute "Thermal Denial" strikes, which degrades civilian resilience.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate, overriding constraint is the time sensitivity of the reserve decision. Every minute delay increases the probability of C2 collapse at Stepnohorsk due to RF EW/A2A pressure, leading to the MDCOA. The requirement for localized EW reinforcement for C2 protection at Stepnohorsk is immediate.

---

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO has escalated the Hybrid Shock strategy, focusing on three lines of effort:

1. NCA Capitulation: Disinformation alleging UAF leadership (e.g., Zaluzhnyi/Zelensky) is prepared to accept peace without the 1991 borders (300717Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Exaggerated Infrastructure Collapse: False claims of 80% loss of Ukrainian energy capacity (300728Z) designed to degrade national morale and amplify the impact of "Thermal Denial" strikes.
3. Domestic Normalization: RF state media continues to push non-military, normalcy content (TASS Comet report, Moscow changes) to buffer the domestic population from kinetic realities (300716Z, 300730Z).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The high AD success (104 intercepts) provides a critical counter-narrative against RF claims of infrastructural collapse. The immediate, unified projection of this success is necessary to counter the simultaneous IO aimed at political paralysis. The Vyshhorod casualties must be managed carefully to maintain internal morale without increasing panic.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Focus remains on leveraging the Kazakh diplomatic friction (previous report). The high AD kill rate is tangible evidence of the efficacy of Western-supplied AD systems and should be immediately briefed to NATO partners to justify increased AD and long-range targeting support.

---

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

The Stepnohorsk crisis has entered its most critical phase, requiring an immediate decision to prevent operational collapse.

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Sustained Hybrid Pressure Leading to Tactical C2 Degradation (300800Z - 301200Z) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF will maintain maximum kinetic pressure on the Pokrovsk fixation axis (30+ contacts per 4 hours) to tie down UAF reserves. Simultaneously, Vostok Group will intensify localized C2 denial (EW/A2A UAVs) against the 3 ABde sector at Stepnohorsk. This aims to create a tactical vacuum, enabling exploitation by RF motorized rifle units, believing UAF tactical C2 will be paralyzed before strategic reserves arrive.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: C2 Decapitation and Operational Rout Synchronized with NCA Paralysis (300800Z - 300930Z) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF achieves a critical breakthrough at Stepnohorsk due to the failure of 3 ABde C2 infrastructure. This is synchronized with the RF IO campaign achieving a temporary political effect at the NCA level, causing an additional 90-minute delay in the release and commitment of strategic reserves beyond the 300730Z deadline. This delay allows RF exploitation units to secure critical road junctions in the Zaporizhzhia rear, forcing a massive, costly UAF counter-offensive later.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The critical decision window is closing rapidly.

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

---

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The decisive action must be taken immediately to counter the synchronized kinetic and cognitive threat.

1. C2 STABILITY AND RESERVE COMMITMENT (NCA/C-in-C):

   • ACTION (CATASTROPHIC URGENCY): The Commander-in-Chief must publicly confirm (video/high-profile media) the deployment of strategic reserves toward the Stepnohorsk axis NLT 300830Z.
   • RATIONALE: This directly counters the MDCOA by confirming operational unity, overrides the political paralysis induced by RF IO, and provides immediate assurance to frontline commanders (3 ABde) that reinforcement is imminent.

2. EW ASSET DEPLOYMENT (J6 / 3 ABde EW Officer):

   • ACTION (IMMEDIATE TACTICAL): Execute the immediate reallocation of mobile EW jamming systems (as recommended previously) to establish a hardened C2 bubble around key 3 ABde command posts. Prioritize C2 denial capability over wide-area surveillance jamming.
   • RATIONALE: Mitigates the highest kinetic risk driver (A2A C2 denial) at the decisive point.

3. COUNTER-IO EXPLOITATION (J7/J2):

   • ACTION (CRITICAL): Launch a synchronized, high-frequency IO campaign NLT 300830Z focused solely on the 104/122 UAV kill count. Use the Vyshhorod strike information to frame Russia as intentionally targeting civilians, contrasting with UAF defensive competence.
   • RATIONALE: Capitalizes on a major, verifiable success to neutralize RF narratives regarding energy collapse (300728Z) and failed defense, strengthening domestic resilience and international support.

4. LOGISTICAL INTERDICTION 2.0 (J2/J3):

   • ACTION (URGENT STRATEGIC): Update deep strike priority list, focusing on identified Kazakh-RF border rail choke points and transshipment facilities (CR P3.0). This must be accelerated to counter the imminent RF POL stock stabilization within the next 48-72 hours.
   • RATIONALE: Sustained interdiction of alternative routes is necessary to degrade RF Vostok Group's medium-term operational momentum.

//END OF REPORT//