MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)
DTG: 300330Z NOV 25
SUBJECT: FINAL PREPARATORY FIRE PHASE // COGNITIVE DEFENSE DEADLINE REACHED // EU ULTIMATUM PROVIDES IMMEDIATE COUNTER-IO OPPORTUNITY
1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (CURRENT OPERATIONAL PICTURE)
1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain
The operational environment remains in the final kinetic preparation phase, 150 minutes (2.5 hours) prior to the estimated ground assault initiation at Stepnohorsk (NLT 300600Z). RF preparatory fires (MLRS confirmed) have reached maximum intensity, aimed at disorganizing the UAF 3rd Assault Brigade (3 ABde) blocking positions.
- FACT: The window for deep preparatory fire effect is now concluding, and the RF transition to direct fire support for maneuver elements is imminent (NLT 300530Z).
- JUDGMENT: The defense’s ability to survive the 0600Z assault is now solely dependent on successfully implementing localized C4ISR protection (Counter-EW TTPs) and stabilizing morale via the National Command Authority (NCA) address, both of which are currently overdue or at deadline. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations
Clear skies and sub-freezing temperatures persist. Visibility remains high, favoring RF ISR/Strike coordination leading up to the assault.
1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures
UAF 3 ABde is establishing fire support coordination points (FSCP) but remains under extreme duress. RF synchronization suggests high C2 effectiveness, adhering strictly to the planned assault timeline.
2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)
2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action
RF Intent remains an operational breach at Stepnohorsk NLT 300600Z.
- Adaptation Status (CONFIRMED): RF logistical adaptation using the Kazakhstan transit routes is validated by external diplomatic friction. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Kazakhstan has formally protested the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) infrastructure (300324Z).
- JUDGMENT: This confirms the effectiveness of the UAF deep strike campaign but also validates the necessity for immediate diplomatic management to mitigate geopolitical blowback, which could affect future strategic targeting decisions. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- IO Synchronization: RF TASS messaging (300305Z, 300317Z) is currently focused on projecting internal stability (economic statistics) and strategic partnerships (North Korea), shifting narrative focus away from the Stepnohorsk kinetic operation or the damaged CPC infrastructure. This supports the ongoing "Strategic Collapse" narrative by demonstrating Russian resilience. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)
2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations
No change to the multi-domain assault plan. RF focus remains on maximum kinetic saturation until 0530Z.
2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status
While immediate operational stocks for the Vostok Group remain sufficient for the 0600Z assault, the geopolitical friction arising from the CPC attack (Kazakhstan protest) suggests the RF alternative logistical route via Kazakhstan is operational, sensitive, and now politically vulnerable.
2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness
Effective C2 synchronization observed across kinetic domains. No degradation noted.
3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)
3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness
Readiness is critically tied to morale stabilization and successful C4ISR protection measures.
- CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The 300330Z deadline for the NCA counter-IO address has been reached. Every minute of silence now acts as a force multiplier for RF IO.
- TECHNICAL CONSTRAINT: Confirmation of the Counter-BPS A2A TTP deployment remains unconfirmed. Assume forward C2/ISR capabilities for 3 ABde are severely compromised until proven otherwise.
3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks
The emergence of a firm European diplomatic ultimatum provides an immediate and potent tactical success in the Information Domain (4.3).
3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints
- C4ISR/EW: Confirmation of "SKY SWEEPER" TTPs is now overdue (NLT 300345Z).
- Strategic Communication: Immediate NCA action required to leverage the new international development.
- Diplomatic: Immediate J7/MFA coordination is required to address the Kazakh protest regarding the CPC strike.
4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)
4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns
RF IO is maintaining the strategic stability narrative (internal economic strength, NK partnership) to counter the shock of UAF deep strikes.
4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors
Morale remains critically low due to kinetic pressure, thermal denial strategy, and the ongoing perception of NCA silence.
4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments
- FACT: A high-ranking European official (Barro) has issued a public, verifiable ultimatum stating that Putin must agree to a ceasefire or face new sanctions (300326Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
- JUDGMENT: This development is a strategic counter-narrative windfall. It directly refutes RF narratives of "Western abandonment" and confirms robust, active diplomatic pressure targeting Moscow—precisely the message required to stabilize frontline and civilian morale before the 0600Z assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)
5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)
MLCOA: Unimpeded Ground Assault Initiation (300600Z) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
RF forces will maintain kinetic saturation until 300530Z. Failure by UAF to implement Counter-EW TTPs allows RF BPS A2A assets to deny UAF fire correction and ISR during the crucial assault phase, leading to successful penetration of the 3 ABde MLR by maneuver elements NLT 300600Z.
5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)
MDCOA: C4ISR Decapitation Leading to Operational Rout (300530Z) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
Unchanged. Localized EW/kinetic strike 30 minutes before the assault neutralizes UAF C4ISR coordination capability (particularly fire support and reserve movement), enabling RF to turn tactical penetration into an operational encirclement.
5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points
The critical kinetic defense remains 0600Z. The critical cognitive defense decision is now overdue.
| Event | Estimated DTG | Criticality | Decision Point / Status Update Requirement |
|---|
| NCA Counter-IO Address (Execution) | IMMEDIATE (NLT 300345Z) | CATASTROPHIC | MUST integrate the new EU ultimatum messaging. |
| UAF Counter-EW TTP Deployment Confirmation | NLT 300345Z | CRITICAL | J2/TECHINT confirmation that "SKY SWEEPER" protocols are in use by 3 ABde. ASSUME FAILURE TO EXECUTE if no confirmation received by this DTG. |
| Logistics Contingency Confirmation | NLT 300345Z | CRITICAL | J4 confirmation of secondary logistics activation. |
| RF Ground Assault Initiation | NLT 300600Z | CRITICAL | Primary kinetic operational decision point. |
6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS
| Priority | Gap | Collection Requirement (CR) | Domain | Confidence Assessment |
|---|
| PRIORITY 1 (TECHINT/SIGINT) | EW Performance Against UAF Assets | Immediate high-resolution SIGINT assessment of UAF EW efficacy against BPS activity following the implementation of emergency TTPs (or confirmation of non-compliance). | SIGINT, TECHINT | HIGH |
| PRIORITY 2 (IMINT/HUMINT) | RF Assault Force Final Staging | Close-range HUMINT/IMINT confirmation of the RF lead maneuver elements crossing the final line of departure (LOD) and specific formation for the 0600Z assault. | IMINT, HUMINT | HIGH |
| PRIORITY 3 (J7/MFA) | Kazakh Diplomatic Intent | J7/MFA assessment of the specific terms and demands related to the CPC protest, necessary for immediate diplomatic engagement and mitigation. | OSINT, HUMINT (Diplomatic) | MEDIUM |
7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS
The immediate objective is to stabilize the cognitive domain and maximize C4ISR survival ahead of the 0600Z kinetic shock.
-
IMMEDIATE COMMAND STABILIZATION & COUNTER-IO (NCA / J7):
- ACTION (CATASTROPHIC URGENCY): The NCA must deliver a visual strategic address NLT 300345Z. The message must centrally feature the EU ultimatum against Putin to decisively counter the "Systemic Collapse" narrative and prevent operational paralysis due to low morale.
- RATIONALE: The external diplomatic signal is the most effective counter-narrative available and must be weaponized immediately.
-
C4ISR PROTECTION AND EW COUNTERMEASURES (J3 / TECHINT):
- ACTION (CRITICAL - HIGH RISK): J3 must assume Counter-BPS/A2A TTPs ("SKY SWEEPER") have failed to deploy or are ineffective until technical confirmation is received. Immediate operational adaptation for 3 ABde involves shifting tactical reliance from vulnerable centralized ISR (UAVs) to decentralized, ground-based forward observers and dedicated thermal imaging teams for fire correction coordination, anticipating localized air blindness.
- RATIONALE: Mitigation requires redundancy; if the technical fix failed, operational procedures must compensate immediately to ensure fire support during the ground assault.
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DIPLOMATIC MITIGATION (J7 / MFA):
- ACTION (URGENT): J7/MFA must initiate immediate, classified communications with the Government of Kazakhstan to acknowledge the MFA protest regarding the CPC strike, offer assurance, and discuss mitigation measures, while simultaneously securing the viability of future deep strike campaigns against the RF alternative logistics corridor.
- RATIONALE: Prevent the tactical success of the deep strike campaign from escalating into a negative strategic/diplomatic complication that could restrict future target sets.
-
FIRES PRIORITIZATION (J3 / ARTILLERY):
- ACTION (CONFIRM CONTINUED PRIORITY): Maintain high-volume Counter-Battery Fire (CBF) against confirmed RF MLRS positions until 300530Z. Ensure long-range precision fires (HIMARS/ATACMS) are pre-allocated and ready for immediate execution against confirmed RF maneuver assembly areas or crossing points once they commit to the assault (300600Z).
- RATIONALE: Suppress final attrition fires while preserving decisive kinetic capability for the assault.
//END OF REPORT//
