Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 300315Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: PHASE III PREPARATORY FIRES CONFIRMED // CRITICAL COUNTER-IO WINDOW CLOSING // KINETIC INITIATION IMMINENT

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (CURRENT OPERATIONAL PICTURE)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment remains in the decisive preparatory fire phase, approximately three hours prior to the estimated ground assault initiation at Stepnohorsk (NLT 300600Z).

• FACT: RF forces have transitioned to Phase III preparatory fires, confirming the use of BM-21 Grad MLRS (300235Z) targeting UAF infantry concentrations. This signals the final saturation phase before direct fire support precedes maneuver.
• JUDGMENT: The synchronization of deep strikes (KAB), heavy artillery (Krasnoarmiysk axis), and now high-volume MLRS indicates the RF intent is to achieve maximum disorganization and psychological shock before the 0600Z push. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear skies and sub-freezing temperatures continue. Conditions favor RF kinetic ISR platforms and heighten the impact of RF "Thermal Denial" strikes on civilian infrastructure (TASS reporting 80% energy capacity loss reinforces this strategy).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF: Demonstrating highly effective synchronized C2. Fire direction is continuous and sequential, indicating adherence to the assessed MLCOA timetable.
• UAF (3 ABde): Under extreme kinetic and EW duress. The critical C2 vulnerability stemming from BPS (Drone Systems Troops) A2A activities remains the primary technical threat to fire correction capability during the assault.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent remains an operational breach at Stepnohorsk NLT 300600Z, forcing an operational rout of the disorganized UAF 33 OShP and preventing the consolidation of the 3 ABde defensive line.

• Kinetic Surge (FACT): The integration of MLRS confirms that RF has sufficient short-range ammunition stockpiles for a sustained, high-volume fire barrage leading directly into the maneuver element advance.
• Adaptation Status (JUDGMENT): RF logistics have adapted via Kazakh transit routes, mitigating the strategic impact of UAF deep strikes. This allows Vostok Group to maintain kinetic pressure without immediate POL constraints. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• C4ISR Protection (JUDGMENT): The reported cessation of the aerial threat alert (300249Z) may suggest RF aviation assets are maneuvering or temporarily withdrawing prior to the pre-assault suppression window, protected by the previously noted surge in AD assets (SAR score 13.88).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No fundamental change to the synchronized multi-domain assault plan. The observed shift to MLRS confirms the planned progression of the preparatory fire sequence.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are adapting well. Artsyz logistics hub (P1) status remains unconfirmed, but the primary threat is the RF exploitation of new rail corridors through Kazakhstan, which must be addressed to affect long-term sustainment.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, controlling the sequential kinetic effects and synchronized IO.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is critically dependent on immediate success in the cognitive and technical domains. Failure to implement counter-IO measures (NCA Address) or restore/protect local C2 (Counter-EW TTPs) before 0600Z significantly degrades the defense's ability to coordinate fire and reserve movement.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback: The sustained kinetic pressure, now incorporating MLRS, is inflicting attrition and psychological stress on forward elements of the 3 ABde and 33 OShP.
• Setback (Cognitive): RF IO successfully amplified the "Strategic Collapse" narrative using verifiable data (energy disruption) and psychological exploitation (propaganda videos).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. C4ISR/EW: Immediate deployment and execution of updated TTPs to counter the BPS A2A UAV threat are overdue (300300Z deadline).
2. Strategic Communication: NCA engagement required within minutes (300330Z deadline) to stabilize morale.
3. Logistics: J4 confirmation of secondary GLOC viability for the 3 ABde is critical before the 0600Z kinetic peak.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is executing a highly effective narrative synchronization:

1. Military Defeat: Propaganda confirms UAF personnel capture and uses kinetic footage ("Grades smash enemy infantry").
2. Systemic Collapse: TASS amplified the claim of 80% energy capacity loss, legitimizing the "Thermal Denial" strategy and reinforcing the message that the NCA cannot protect the populace.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale risk remains CATASTROPHIC due to the convergence of physical violence, energy deprivation, and the strategic silence from the NCA, which allows RF narratives of political abandonment (Yermak rumors, Western failure) to dominate.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The imminent EU decision on frozen RF assets remains the single, most powerful counter-narrative available to the NCA. The window to exploit this development is immediate and transient.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Coordinated Ground Assault Initiation (300600Z) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF forces will maintain MLRS and short-range fire suppression until 300530Z. Ground maneuver elements (37th Guards MRB confirmed, supported by UGV/mine-laying assets) will initiate the direct assault NLT 300600Z, focusing on overwhelming the UAF 3 ABde's main line of resistance (MLR) at Stepnohorsk, exploiting gaps created by KAB BDA and friction caused by EW/IO degradation.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: C4ISR Decapitation Leading to Operational Rout (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF successfully executes a localized Starlink/C4ISR denial event (EW or kinetic strike) at 300530Z, 30 minutes before the assault. This prevents UAF forward units from coordinating CBF or fire support with rear echelons during the crucial opening phase of the assault, leading to immediate localized penetration and potential encirclement of forward 3 ABde elements.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The critical kinetic defense is 0600Z. The critical cognitive defense is NOW.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate objective is to survive the 0600Z kinetic shock while neutralizing the RF cognitive advantage.

1. IMMEDIATE COMMAND STABILIZATION & COUNTER-IO (NCA / J7):

   • ACTION (CATASTROPHIC URGENCY): The NCA must deliver a visual strategic address NLT 300330Z. Focus on the EU frozen assets opportunity to provide concrete, reframing counter-narrative against "Western abandonment" and "Systemic Collapse."
   • RATIONALE: This is the last chance to stabilize frontline morale before the assault and prevent RF IO from achieving strategic paralysis.

2. C4ISR PROTECTION AND EW COUNTERMEASURES (J3 / TECHINT):

   • ACTION (CRITICAL - OVERDUE): J2/TECHINT must confirm immediate dissemination and implementation of the revised Counter-BPS/A2A TTPs ("Operation SKY SWEEPER") across 3 ABde C2 channels NLT 300345Z. Assume current loitering munitions capabilities are degraded until protocols are confirmed.
   • RATIONALE: Situational awareness and fire correction coordination are the prerequisites for surviving the ground assault.

3. LOGISTICS AND RETROGRADE (J4 / J3):

   • ACTION (CRITICAL): J4 must provide a secure confirmation of operational status for the secondary logistics route by 300345Z. Furthermore, J3 must immediately confirm the successful "Scorched Earth" destruction of abandoned heavy equipment by the 33 OShP to deny RF exploitation and secure the retrograde elements for integration into the 3 ABde.
   • RATIONALE: Preserve combat power (personnel) for the 0600Z defense and deny RF captured materiel propaganda victories.

4. FIRES PRIORITIZATION (J3 / ARTILLERY):

   • ACTION (URGENT): Given confirmed MLRS usage, prioritize Counter-Battery Fire (CBF) missions against MLRS positions in the Stepnohorsk immediate sector (5-15km range) during the period 300330Z – 300530Z. Conserve long-range precision fires (HIMARS/ATACMS) for interdicting RF maneuver elements once they cross the line of departure (300600Z).
   • RATIONALE: Suppress final preparatory fire attrition while preserving the decisive fire capability for the assault phase.

//END OF REPORT//