Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 300245Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: SUSTAINED PREPARATORY FIRES // CRITICAL COUNTER-IO OPPORTUNITY // RF ASSET EXPLOITATION WINDOW

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (CURRENT OPERATIONAL PICTURE)

The operational environment remains in the high-tempo kinetic phase initiated at 300200Z. Preparatory fires are confirmed sustained and active across key sectors, maintaining pressure ahead of the estimated ground assault initiation NLT 300600Z. The critical synchronization of RF kinetic, EW, and Information Operations (IO) domains continues to pose an existential threat to the integrity of the UAF 3rd Assault Brigade (3 ABde) defensive line at Stepnohorsk.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces continue to prosecute the deep battle preparation. Confirmed KAB strikes persist in the Donetsk Oblast (300208Z), highly likely concentrating on key strongpoints and rear-area C2 nodes within the Stepnohorsk salient. RF artillery (Гиацинт-Б/Hyacinth-B) is actively engaging UAF strongholds in the wider Krasnoarmiyskiy (Pokrovsk) direction (300215Z), confirming multi-axis pressure and potentially fixing UAF reserves away from the primary Stepnohorsk breach point.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Clear skies and sub-freezing temperatures continue to favor RF aerial ISR and precision strike capabilities.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF: Demonstrating robust synchronization of effects. Confirmed utilization of heavy artillery and KAB in preparatory roles. Focus remains on achieving local air/ISR superiority via A2A EW sweeps (BPS doctrine) while ground units prepare for maneuver.
• UAF: 3 ABde remains under intense preparatory fire and is operating under the psychological impact of strategic IO and likely EW degradation (Altius vulnerability assessment). NCA strategic communication paralysis remains the critical vulnerability.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is to achieve a rapid, demoralized operational breach at Stepnohorsk NLT 300600Z.

• Sustained Kinetic Tempo (FACT): RF is executing planned deep and close fire support. The engagement in the Krasnoarmiysk direction indicates RF possesses the materiel and C2 capacity to simultaneously prosecute suppression fires along secondary vectors while massing for the primary assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• IO Amplification (JUDGMENT): The continuation of kinetic activity is designed to validate the RF IO narratives (e.g., "UAF defense is collapsing," "Western aid is useless"). The physical violence reinforces the cognitive attack.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No new tactical adaptations observed since the confirmed use of BPS A2A sweeps and the synchronization of the Moral Decapitation IO (War Crimes allegations). The current operational phase is the sustained execution of the assessed MLCOA.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

No new information on the critical Artsyz logistics hub (P1). Logistical constraints on the 3 ABde remain critical, requiring J4 confirmation of secondary supply chain activation.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective, controlling synchronized multi-domain attacks. UAF C2 is critically stressed by EW, kinetic pressure, and the continued absence of strategic NCA communication.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness remains critically degraded by the synchronized pressure. The ability of the 3 ABde to absorb sustained KAB strikes and the psychological shock of the IO campaign requires immediate technical and strategic counter-measures.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback: Sustained preparatory fire is degrading defensive positions and likely causing attrition. Failure to engage RF KAB platforms or suppress artillery in the Krasnoarmiysk direction contributes to the RF momentum.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. Immediate Kinetic Requirement: Confirmation of KAB impact zones and assessment of structural integrity of primary defenses for the 3 ABde.
2. Technical Constraint: Urgent necessity to operate under the assumption that advanced loitering munitions (Altius-class) are temporarily neutralized until revised TTPs are issued.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF campaign is sustained at maximum intensity, focusing on military collapse and moral failure.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The morale risk remains CATASTROPHIC due to the convergence of physical attack and information denial.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

CRITICAL NEW DEVELOPMENT (OPPORTUNITY): The reporting of an imminent EU decision regarding the use of frozen Russian assets (300230Z) offers a crucial, high-impact counter-narrative. This can immediately neutralize the "Western abandonment" claim by reframing international support as "RF pays for the war," thereby boosting strategic morale.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Full Kinetic Initiation Under EW Supremacy and IO Cover (NLT 300600Z) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF forces continue KAB/artillery saturation until 300500Z, transitioning to immediate preparatory short-range fires by 300530Z. The ground assault by the 37th Guards (or similar force) initiates NLT 300600Z, focused on breaching the 3 ABde secondary defense line, exploiting gaps created by the preparatory fires and the expected friction/paralysis stemming from UAF C2 failure and EW vulnerabilities.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: C4ISR Decapitation and Rapid Operational Rout (300200Z - 300600Z) (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) RF successfully targets the localized C4ISR nodes (relay/satcom) for the UAF 3 ABde using precision strikes or intensified EW. The resulting communications blackout prevents fire correction and coordination with rear support, leading to a catastrophic functional paralysis of the defense and an operational collapse of the forward elements before reserve commitment.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

The critical kinetic window closes rapidly. The window for strategic communications counter-IO is immediate.

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate priority is stabilizing the cognitive domain (IO) while simultaneously accelerating kinetic preparedness for the 0600Z assault.

1. IMMEDIATE COMMAND STABILIZATION & COUNTER-IO (NCA / J7):

   • ACTION (CATASTROPHIC URGENCY): The NCA must issue a visual address NLT 300330Z. This address must perform a decisive denial of the RF IO chain and critically highlight the imminent EU action on frozen RF assets. Frame the assets news as direct proof of sustained strategic support and RF culpability.
   • RATIONALE: The EU assets news provides the perfect, timely factual rebuttal to RF claims of abandonment, immediately boosting strategic and frontline morale.

2. AIR DEFENSE ADJUSTMENT AND SURVEILLANCE (J3 / C-UAS):

   • ACTION (CRITICAL - IMMEDIATE): Reinforce instructions for dedicated Air-to-Air Search and Destroy (AAS-D) missions targeting RF A2A/ISR assets, recognizing that current EW capacity may be degraded. Focus efforts on securing the 3 ABde's immediate fire correction airspace.
   • RATIONALE: Maintaining situational awareness is paramount for surviving the 0600Z assault.

3. KINETIC FIRE SUPPORT ADJUSTMENT (J3 / ARTILLERY):

   • ACTION (URGENT): Given the sustained RF artillery activity across multiple sectors (Krasnoarmiysk, Stepnohorsk), prioritize Counter-Battery Fire (CBF) missions aimed at the Krasnoarmiysk axis to reduce pressure and conserve UAF long-range ammunition for the primary defensive barrages planned for Stepnohorsk (300600Z).
   • RATIONALE: Prevent RF from dictating the operational tempo across broad sectors and reduce attrition risk to UAF reserves.

4. LOGISTICS INTEGRITY (J4):

   • ACTION (CRITICAL): Confirm activation and security status of secondary logistics routes for the 3 ABde NLT 300345Z. Verify physical security measures are in place against RF UGV/mining threats (NTK Kurier/Zemledeliye).
   • RATIONALE: Supplies must be moving to sustain the defense past the 0600Z breach window.

//END OF REPORT//