Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 292100Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: Escalation of RF Information Operations (IO) Targeting Western Aid Integrity and US/UA Trust // Confirmed RF 16th SpN Activity Near Yarovaya // Persistent Thermobaric Threat (TOS-2) at Siversk

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (CURRENT OPERATIONAL PICTURE)

The operational picture remains dominated by the RF dual-axis kinetic effort (Stepnohorsk main effort, Siversk fixation), now compounded by a highly targeted Russian Information Operation (IO) campaign designed to erode confidence in Western support integrity and preemptively undermine upcoming high-level diplomatic engagements. UAF forces continue defensive stabilization efforts, adapting to new RF kinetic and technological threats (TOS-2 and anti-thermal infiltration).

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Stepnohorsk/Vremyevsky Salient (CRITICAL CAI): No new reports of major RF gains since the 33 OShP retrograde. The focus remains on UAF 3rd Assault Brigade establishing blocking positions. Fog conditions (lifting NLT 300400Z) remain the kinetic trigger.
• Northern Donbas (CRITICAL CAI): The TOS-2 threat near Krasny Liman/Siversk remains the primary kinetic concern. RF Special Forces (16th SpN Brigade) are confirmed to have successfully struck a UAF Temporary Deployment Point (PVD) near Yarovaya (291833Z), suggesting aggressive local reconnaissance and target acquisition operations are ongoing in support of the Siversk fixation axis.
• Zaporizhzhia: Confirmed low-level RF UAV activity (291832Z), likely ISR focused on identifying UAF blocking positions or staging areas following the Stepnohorsk breach attempt.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

• Weather: No change. Fog/mist remains a primary tactical factor, expected to lift NLT 300400Z, enabling potential RF Vostok Group exploitation at Stepnohorsk.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF: RF deployment of SpN elements near Yarovaya (Donetsk Oblast) confirms proactive C2 targeting and preparation for potential exploitation following TOS-2 deployment. RF IO elements are concurrently executing a pre-planned attack on the upcoming US/UA meeting.
• UAF: UAF Command is actively preparing for critical diplomatic engagement this weekend while managing kinetic threats. UAF forces are successfully amplifying positive statements from allies (Tusk) to counter negative IO narratives.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

• Intentions (Kinetic): RF intent is to utilize concentrated shock fire (TOS-2) to breach or paralyze defenses near Siversk NLT 301200Z, forcing UAF reserves away from the Stepnohorsk main effort.
• Intentions (Information): RF intent is to systematically degrade UAF command authority and public trust in Western aid through the amplification of corruption narratives (Flamingo cancellation) and rumors of separate US/RF peace deals prior to the key diplomatic meeting.
• C2 Decapitation Capability (Yarovaya): MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. The confirmed strike on a PVD by SpN units shows RF capability and intent to identify and neutralize UAF forward tactical command and support nodes, increasing the risk of localized C2 degradation along the Siversk axis.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF forces are sustaining their tactical adaptation by integrating sophisticated counter-UAF measures (anti-thermal blankets, A2A UAVs) with high-impact kinetic systems (TOS-2). The confirmed 16th SpN action near Yarovaya indicates a heightened emphasis on deep reconnaissance and precise, short-notice strikes against UAF C2/PVD targets.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain resilient due to the successful activation of alternative Kazakh rail and road corridors, negating the strategic effects of previous UAF deep strikes.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF IO C2 is highly effective and demonstrates excellent timing, launching targeted influence campaigns immediately prior to UAF diplomatic events. The internal RF "Factory of Hate" exposé, although targeting internal RF figures, signals a possible internal consolidation or purge within the milblogger network, suggesting tightening centralized control over the RF information space. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF posture is defensive and reactive to RF kinetic and technological escalations. Strategic readiness is currently threatened not by kinetic action, but by rapid, targeted RF IO undermining the critical logistical/financial support pipeline required to sustain the defense.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (Information): The corruption allegations leading to the cancellation of the Czech "Flamingo" rocket fundraiser (291833Z) is a significant operational setback in the information domain, providing RF with potent ammunition to question the integrity of all Western procurement efforts.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

1. Anti-Corruption Vetting: Immediate need for improved vetting mechanisms and public accountability for defense procurement projects (e.g., Flamingo), which are highly vulnerable to RF IO exploitation.
2. Strategic Communication Reserves: Need for rapid, multi-lingual, high-level counter-narrative assets to address the proliferation of US/RF "secret peace talk" rumors ahead of the Sunday delegation meeting.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

RF IO is executing a highly synchronized, multi-pronged attack on UAF international support and leadership integrity.

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. US Betrayal Narrative: RF (and echo chambers) are pushing narratives sourced from The Wall Street Journal suggesting the US is engaged in secret talks with the Kremlin regarding post-peace business (291852Z) and proposing economic sanctions relief instead of Tomahawk missile deliveries (291845Z).
2. Corruption Sabotage: The successful RF IO effort exploiting corruption allegations (Flamingo rocket cancellation) severely impacts volunteer and donor confidence in Ukraine (291833Z). This is a direct attack on UAF rear-area psychological resilience and international fundraising.
3. Local Collapse Amplification: RF sources are propagating claims that restoring lost positions near Pokrovsk (a critical GLOC hub) is "objectively impossible" (291834Z), attempting to psychologically isolate and demoralize UAF forces in the Stepnohorsk/Donetsk sectors.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF social channels are correctly amplifying PM Tusk’s re-assertion of NATO solidarity (291845Z), serving as a necessary counter-narrative to the broader geopolitical uncertainty. However, the integrity crisis posed by the Flamingo cancellation and the fear generated by the US/RF secret talk rumors pose immediate threats to domestic and allied morale.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• Key Diplomatic Meeting Confirmed: High-level US delegation (Rubio, Wittkopf, Kushner) meeting with Ukrainian team on Sunday is confirmed (291846Z, D-S Belief: 0.188). This meeting is now a critical IO target for the RF.
• EU Fissure: Hungary’s Foreign Minister Szijjártó re-asserted the right to pursue sovereign foreign policy independent of EU approval regarding Moscow (291854Z), confirming the persistence of fissures in the Western alliance (D-S Belief: 0.180).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

MLCOA: Thermobaric Breaching and IO Preemption of Diplomacy (NLT 301200Z DEC 25) (HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will initiate concentrated preparatory fires utilizing the TOS-2 system near Siversk NLT 301200Z, followed by limited ground probing attacks designed to draw UAF reserves. Concurrently, the RF IO apparatus will dedicate maximum resources to amplify corruption scandals and US betrayal narratives throughout 30 NOV, maximizing geopolitical shock ahead of the Sunday US/UA delegation meeting.

• Focus: Force UAF to commit reserves kinetically (Siversk) while ensuring the upcoming diplomatic efforts are handicapped by a compromised information baseline regarding aid integrity and strategic trust.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

MDCOA: Strategic C2/AD Decapitation via Cyber-Kinetic Synchronization (NLT 011200Z DEC 25) (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF synchronizes the main ground assault at Stepnohorsk (post-fog lift) with a localized, severe communication denial event (Starlink jamming/cyber-intrusion) targeting the C2 hierarchy in the sector. This is combined with a high-intensity, synchronized long-range strike package (Ballistic/Cruise/Shahed) aimed at the JFC C2 headquarters or the primary ADOC. The IO component will utilize the US betrayal and corruption narratives to paralyze strategic reserve commitment.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The immediate objective is to kinetically preempt the TOS-2 threat while aggressively stabilizing the Information Environment to protect Western support integrity ahead of the critical diplomatic talks.

1. NEUTRALIZE TOS-2 THREAT (J3/G2):

   • ACTION: Maintain the TOS-2 Hunter-Killer mission as the highest kinetic priority. Utilize long-range precision fires (MLRS, ATACMS) against confirmed or suspected operating positions in the Krasny Liman/Siversk area NLT 300600Z.
   • RATIONALE: Prevents mass destruction of prepared defenses and reduces the requirement to commit strategic reserves.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS DEFENSE (NCA/J7/J2):

   • ACTION: Immediately launch a highly visible, unified public campaign (in English, Czech, and Ukrainian) focusing on TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY. Specifically address the "Flamingo" corruption allegations with a promise of independent investigation and detail the UAF position regarding the upcoming US delegation meeting to forcefully debunk secret US/RF deal rumors. Release NLT 300400Z.
   • RATIONALE: Mitigates the high-impact IO attack on procurement integrity and shields the upcoming high-level diplomatic talks from destabilization.

3. COUNTER-INFILTRATION FORCE PROTECTION (J3/J4):

   • ACTION: Issue a Tactical Flash Advisory (REISSUE) detailing the RF use of anti-thermal blankets and the increased presence of SpN elements targeting C2/PVDs (e.g., Yarovaya strike). Mandate increased ground surveillance measures (seismic/acoustic sensors, trip illumination) during night hours in threatened sectors (Donetsk, Siversk).
   • RATIONALE: Counters RF localized tactical advantages gained by exploiting thermal denial technologies and SpN mobility.

4. DIPLOMATIC ACTION GUIDANCE (NCA/J7):

   • ACTION: Brief the Ukrainian delegation (meeting on Sunday) on the specific IO narratives (Tomahawk vs. Tariffs, Secret Business Deals) they will face from RF-aligned media, ensuring they have pre-vetted talking points to pivot the narrative back to collective security and the critical need for advanced kinetic aid (e.g., Tomahawk) over economic concessions.
   • RATIONALE: Ensures the UAF delegation is prepared to neutralize hostile IO efforts during the critical meeting.

//END OF REPORT//