Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 271500Z NOV 25

SUBJECT: PHASE RED ACCELERATION: KINETIC PUSH SYNCHRONIZED WITH MAXIMALIST IO; POKROVSK STATUS CRITICAL; HULIAIPOLE ASSAULT IMMINENT

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational environment is characterized by coordinated kinetic escalation on the Zaporizhzhia Axis, directly supporting a critical, high-stakes information operation (IO) concerning the strategic defeat on the Donbas Front.

• Pokrovsk-Myrnograd Axis (Donetsk Oblast): RF President Putin explicitly stated that Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov (Myrnograd) are "completely surrounded" (14:12Z). This presidential-level validation of the tactical claim transforms the unverified setback into a critical operational priority. If true, a significant UAF force contingent is currently under active encirclement, validating the critical status assessed in the 26th November daily report.
• Huliaipole Axis (Zaporizhzhia Oblast): Kinetic shaping continues, consistent with preparing for the MLCOA of a major armored thrust NLT 272200Z. This assault is designed to capitalize on UAF reserves being fixed or destroyed on the Pokrovsk axis.
• Northern/CSTO Diplomacy: RF is using the CSTO framework (Bishkek summit) to demonstrate external geopolitical support (Kyrgyzstan defense talks, 14:06Z) while simultaneously focusing on military recruitment and sustainment (14:04Z, 14:12Z).

FACT: RF President Putin claimed Pokrovsk and Myrnograd are completely surrounded (14:12Z). FACT: Putin confirmed key demands for negotiations include US recognition of RF sovereignty over Crimea and Donbas (14:11Z). JUDGMENT: RF is leveraging the claimed operational victory at Pokrovsk/Myrnograd to force immediate strategic concessions by defining maximalist, non-negotiable peace terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear conditions persist across key operational sectors, maintaining high visibility and favoring RF ISR, targeting, and heavy KAB/UAV employment essential for the Huliaipole offensive preparation.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF is managing a dual-crisis situation: active threat containment (Huliaipole) and verification/extraction planning (Pokrovsk). Control Measures remain centered on rapid confirmation of the Pokrovsk pocket status (J2/J3 priority). RF forces are actively utilizing high-intensity recruitment campaigns, suggesting sustained offensive capability despite losses.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intentions are now definitively linked: kinetic action drives strategic negotiation terms. The operational goal is to achieve territorial gains that make the maximalist demands (sovereignty recognition) appear inevitable prior to the anticipated US/RF talks next week.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary tactical shift is the deployment of the Presidential Voice to validate specific, unverified battlefield claims (Pokrovsk encirclement). This constitutes a massive psychological warfare boost for RF forces and maximizes the perceived gravity of the UAF setback, forcing immediate military/political attention.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly centralized and effective in synchronizing the military deadline (Huliaipole assault NLT 272200Z) with the diplomatic decision point (US talks next week).

2.4. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Aggressive and personalized recruitment campaigns (MoD RF, Moscow Region Governor, 14:04Z, 14:12Z) indicate a proactive strategy to maintain personnel rotation and address ongoing manpower attrition, confirming sustainment remains a long-term priority.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are under peak strain. The inability to officially verify or deny the Pokrovsk encirclement (Intelligence Gap P1) prevents clear command decisions regarding rescue or reinforcement allocation. Readiness is defined by crisis management and maintaining cohesion under massive IO pressure.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setback (STRATEGIC/POLITICAL): RF attempts to undermine the constitutional legitimacy of the National Command Authority (NCA) through focused claims regarding election postponement (14:06Z, 14:07Z). This demands immediate, high-level STRATCOM defense.
• Setback (OPERATIONAL): High probability of substantial loss of fighting capability if the Pokrovsk encirclement claim is confirmed, impacting the availability of strategic reserves to defend the Huliaipole line.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The immediate constraint is the lack of timely, high-confidence ISR into the Pokrovsk sector. This intelligence vacuum is now being actively weaponized by the RF leadership. Internal security resources must also focus on maintaining political and military legitimacy against RF IO.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO has consolidated its strategic objectives:

1. Territorial Coercion: Negotiations are contingent on UAF withdrawal from all claimed RF territory and US recognition of sovereignty over Crimea/Donbas (14:11Z, 14:12Z). This confirms the war aim is maximalist territorial acquisition.
2. Leadership De-legitimization: RF is actively promoting the narrative that the current Ukrainian leadership is "illegitimate" due to the failure to hold wartime elections, making any agreement signed by them "senseless" and "legally impossible" (14:06Z, 14:07Z).
3. Economic Weaponization: Threats of confidence collapse in the Eurozone if Russian assets are confiscated (14:09Z).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian channels (14:10Z, 14:15Z) are responding with aggressive counter-sarcasm and mockery of Putin, indicating strong narrative resistance but also highlighting the extreme saturation of RF propaganda currently attempting to breach internal resilience.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF has successfully framed the upcoming US visit as the primary (if not only) viable diplomatic track (14:15Z, 14:18Z), effectively sidelining the multilateral peace frameworks previously supported by Kyiv and Brussels. The confirmation of contacts with Hungary's Orbán (14:08Z) suggests RF is actively targeting points of friction within NATO/EU.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF will maintain maximum military pressure in the South (Huliaipole) to gain a position of strength before diplomatic engagement.

1. Execution of Huliaipole Assault (0-8H): The main armored thrust will commence, utilizing heavy artillery saturation and KAB support to achieve a rapid, deep penetration NLT 272200Z. This move is highly correlated with the need to present a fait accompli before the US delegation visit next week. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Pokrovsk Pocket Clearance and Confirmation (0-24H): RF forces will prioritize the clearance and documentation of the Pokrovsk/Myrnograd pocket. IMINT/GEOINT evidence of captured UAF personnel and destroyed equipment will be released globally to validate Putin’s claim and intensify IO pressure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
3. Diplomatic Pre-conditioning (0-72H): RF will use official channels (Foreign Ministry, presidential statements) to continually repeat the two core demands—withdrawal from Donbas and recognition of annexed territory—to establish the ceiling of possible negotiations with the US. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The simultaneous success of the Huliaipole breach and the verification of a total operational loss (over 3,000 personnel) in the Pokrovsk pocket, coupled with a successful RF precision strike against a critical UAF Logistics or Reserve Staging Area (e.g., Kremenchuk, as per 26 Nov gap), leading to operational collapse on the Donbas/Zaporizhzhia joint.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: OPERATIONAL COUNTER-BLOW (J3/FIRE COMMAND)

1. Pokrovsk Status Resolution (CRITICAL): Designate immediate, high-priority SIGINT/IMINT flight routes over the Pokrovsk/Myrnograd area. If the encirclement is confirmed, execute Fragmented Defense Protocols (FDP) via designated, covered exfiltration routes, prioritizing personnel extraction over equipment retention.
2. Huliaipole Counter-Preparation: Pre-authorize reserve units (those not earmarked for Pokrovsk relief) to move into prepared secondary defensive lines west of Huliaipole NLT 271800Z. Focus all available long-range artillery assets on identified RF staging points and concentration areas to disrupt the planned 2200Z assault timing.

R-2: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND LEGITIMACY DEFENSE (NCA/STRATCOM)

1. Legitimacy Counter-Narrative (CRITICAL): NCA must immediately issue a comprehensive, high-level rebuttal to Putin's claims of illegitimacy and territorial sovereignty. The response must clearly articulate that wartime elections are impossible and that the only basis for peace is the 1991 borders, thus framing the RF ultimatum as a demand for capitulation, not negotiation.
2. Internal Corruption Mitigation: Continue aggressive prosecution and highly public reporting on the Poltava corruption case (14:00Z from previous report), ensuring the narrative emphasizes UAF dedication to internal security and accountability, preempting RF PSYOPS exploitation.

R-3: DIPLOMATIC AND GEOPOLITICAL (MFA/NCA)

1. European Alignment Reinforcement: Increase diplomatic engagement with key European partners (France, Germany, UK) to preempt the isolation strategy implied by the RF focus on US bilateral talks and Hungarian outreach. Secure explicit, public confirmation of continued support for the Ukrainian peace formula ahead of the US delegation visit to Moscow.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS