Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 271430Z NOV 25

SUBJECT: PHASE RED ACCELERATION: HULIAIPOLE ASSAULT IMMINENT; RF CLAIMS POKROVSK AXIS ENCIRCLEMENT; MAXIMALIST DIPLOMATIC ULTIMATUM ISSUED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture is characterized by immediate, high-intensity kinetic pressure on the Zaporizhzhia Axis, synchronized with significant RF information signaling designed to exploit claimed breakthroughs in the Donbas.

• Zaporizhzhia Axis (HULIAIPOLE): RF preparation for the major assault continues. RF President Putin claims forces have approached Huliaipole and are advancing "with assault tempo" across Northern Zaporizhzhia, suggesting an imminent front collapse threat (13:59Z). UAF Air Force confirms multiple Guided Aerial Bomb (KAB) launches targeting the Donetsk region (14:03Z), providing kinetic shaping for the expected breakthrough.
• Pokrovsk Axis (Krasnoarmiysk/Myrnograd): RF President Putin explicitly claimed that Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk) and Dimitrov (Myrnograd) are "completely surrounded" (13:56Z). This claim, if verified, validates the operational encirclement predicted in the 26th November report and demands immediate force disposition changes.
• Northern Sector (Chernihiv/Vovchansk): UAF Air Force reports a UAV inbound towards Chernihiv region, heading south (13:42Z). This suggests continued RF deep reconnaissance/strike targeting of rear infrastructure. RF claims Vovchansk is "almost completely" in their hands (13:57Z), suggesting high localized pressure in the Kharkiv sector.

FACT: UAF Air Force reports KAB launches into the Donetsk region (14:03Z). FACT: UAF Air Force reports a UAV inbound to Chernihiv, tracking south (13:42Z). JUDGMENT: RF is transitioning from preparing the Huliaipole assault to execution, utilizing heavy KAB support. The diplomatic messaging (Putin's ultimatum) is leveraged to psychologically amplify the claimed tactical victory at Pokrovsk/Myrnograd. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear conditions continue to favor RF ISR, KAB employment, and UAV operations, particularly for the high-intensity actions in Zaporizhzhia and the reconnaissance missions in the North.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are under critical strain following the operational deterioration near Pokrovsk. Control measures must prioritize the extraction of units in the alleged encirclement zone and rapid reinforcement of the Huliaipole defensive line before the predicted RF breakthrough.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF immediate intention is kinetic exploitation, aiming for an operational breakthrough at Huliaipole while forcing the surrender/destruction of encircled UAF forces on the Pokrovsk axis.

• Kinetic Intentions: Achieve a major operational success in Zaporizhzhia, aiming to force UAF operational reserves to commit piecemeal to stabilize the southern front, which RF assesses is on the verge of collapse (13:59Z).
• Information/Strategic Intentions: Weaponize the diplomatic framework. Putin's central ultimatum (UAF must withdraw from "occupied territories" for fighting to stop) rejects any true peace negotiation based on existing lines. This maximalist demand is designed to justify continued military operations and fracture international support by framing Ukraine as the obstacle to peace.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF is utilizing high-level official presidential statements to instantly transform tactical battlefield claims (Pokrovsk encirclement) into strategic propaganda, attempting to demoralize UAF forces and pre-condition international observers to the inevitability of the withdrawal demanded in the ultimatum.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF strategic C2 demonstrates high effectiveness in synchronizing kinetic pressure (KAB strikes/Huliaipole push) with high-stakes IO (Putin's press conference). The coordination suggests a determined effort to achieve military victory before any future US/RF diplomatic engagement occurs next week.

2.4. Logistics and Sustainment Status

• CONCERN: The confirmed claim by an RF blogger (13:48Z) that the mandated anti-drone training program (Project "Last Frontier") using smoothbore weapons is stalled due to bureaucratic failure suggests a disconnect between strategic requirements and tactical execution within the RF MoD logistics chain. This represents an intelligence collection opportunity (see R-4).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture is shifting from high-alert defense to crisis response on two fronts: the containment of the Huliaipole threat and the immediate verification/extraction procedure for the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd axis. Readiness remains constrained by deep internal threats.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Setbacks (CRITICAL): Unverified, but highly probable, operational encirclement of units in the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd area based on RF confidence (13:56Z) and previous operational trends.
• Internal Setback (CRITICAL): The exposure of a 5 million UAH corruption scheme in Poltava military procurement (14:00Z) creates an immediate security and morale hazard, potentially leveraged by RF PSYOPS.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

Immediate requirement for high-altitude ISR and dedicated SIGINT resources to verify the Pokrovsk encirclement status. Additionally, internal security resources must be tasked to neutralize the public impact of the Poltava corruption case to maintain C2 legitimacy.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is operating a 'two-track' strategy:

1. Diplomatic Flexibility Facade (Track 1): Putin agrees to use the US/UA framework as a basis for talks and welcomes US negotiators (13:35Z, 13:38Z). This suggests rationality and willingness to de-escalate, aiming to lower Western defense aid commitment.
2. Militarist Ultimatum (Track 2): Simultaneous demands that hostilities only cease upon unilateral UAF withdrawal from claimed RF territory (13:41Z, 13:43Z). This establishes a non-negotiable maximalist position, making Track 1 moot unless total UAF capitulation is achieved militarily.

The narrative is designed to:

• De-legitimize EU involvement (Grushko statement, 13:41Z).
• Portray Ukraine and its Western supporters as warmongers aiming to "steal money" (14:03Z), while RF is the rational party.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Internal UAF morale is under attack from both battlefield setbacks (Pokrovsk claims) and domestic security issues (Poltava corruption). The UAF Strategic Communications (STRATCOM) response to Putin's ultimatum (13:44Z) appropriately frames the peace plan as "profanation" (14:00Z), maintaining resolve but requiring aggressive counter-narratives.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The explicit welcoming of US negotiators for next week (13:38Z) and the threat of raising nuclear testing topics (13:53Z) elevates the US-RF channel over the EU-UA coalition. This is a critical geopolitical maneuver designed to isolate Ukraine from its key strategic allies.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF will attempt to capitalize on perceived UAF command confusion resulting from the Pokrovsk claims and the operational intensity at Huliaipole.

1. Huliaipole Breakthrough (0-6H): RF forces launch the decisive armored assault, leveraging heavy KAB/UAV support and exploiting the anticipated concentration of UAF forces attempting relief/extraction on the Pokrovsk axis. The goal is to achieve a significant territorial penetration on the Southern Front NLT 272200Z. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. Information Exploitation (0-24H): RF IO will aggressively amplify the Pokrovsk "encirclement" and the Poltava corruption incident to drive maximum demoralization and pressure NCA to accept a ceasefire on unfavorable terms. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
3. C2 Interdiction (0-12H): Continued precision strike missions (UAVs, potentially missiles) targeting key logistics and C2 nodes (e.g., Sloviansk, Chernihiv area) to prevent effective UAF coordination of the two critical defensive efforts (Huliaipole and Pokrovsk). (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

The successful, rapid breakthrough at Huliaipole coupled with the verified loss of a significant contingent in the Pokrovsk/Myrnograd encirclement. If combined with a successful C2 strike on a strategic node (e.g., Poltava or Vinnytsia, as per 26 Nov MDCOA), this could lead to operational paralysis and strategic loss of defensive depth in Central Ukraine.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: OPERATIONAL CRISIS RESPONSE (J3/FIRE COMMAND)

1. Pokrovsk/Myrnograd Status Verification and Extraction (CRITICAL): Immediately divert high-resolution ISR (IMINT/SIGINT) assets to the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiysk) and Myrnograd (Dimitrov) area. If encirclement is confirmed, immediately authorize and secure the fastest available Fragmented Defense Protocol (FDP) exit corridors to retrieve personnel and equipment.
2. Huliaipole Priority Targeting: Reallocate SHORAD and counter-battery fire assets from stabilized sectors to the immediate Huliaipole perimeter. Prioritize neutralizing high-value kinetic threats, specifically KAB launch platforms and confirmed TOS-2 concentrations, before 272000Z.

R-2: COMMAND SECURITY AND INTERNAL THREAT MITIGATION (G2/NCA)

1. Poltava Corruption Counter-IO: NCA and STRATCOM must immediately issue a transparent, high-level statement detailing the aggressive investigation into the Poltava corruption case (14:00Z), framing it as an internal act of treason that will be prosecuted swiftly, thereby protecting the integrity of the overall military leadership from RF PSYOPS.
2. Chernihiv AD/EW Focus: Monitor and neutralize the inbound UAV toward Chernihiv (13:42Z). Assess if this is a secondary distraction or an attempt to probe weaknesses following the previous day's C2 threat (Poltava/Vinnytsia).

R-3: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND DIPLOMACY (NCA/STRATCOM)

1. Expose the RF Ultimatum: Immediately counter Putin's dual-track IO strategy by publicly exposing the maximalist withdrawal demand (13:41Z) as the true measure of RF intention, effectively negating the 'flexibility' facade offered to the US. Emphasize that negotiating while under kinetic attack (Huliaipole) is capitulation.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS