Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP) - ACTIVE ENGAGEMENT PHASE

TIME: 270415Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: Post-H-Hour Assessment. RF Ground Assault Active on Zaporizhzhia Axis. Deep Strike Concluded in Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia; Reserve Status Unknown.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces have initiated the projected combined arms ground assault (H-Hour: 270400Z) on the Zaporizhzhia Axis. Initial contact is confirmed along the forward line of engagement (FLE), with RF forces attempting penetration toward the Huliaipole sector, exploiting kinetic shaping fires executed pre-0400Z.

• Zaporizhzhia Axis: Ground combat is active. Initial RF assault density assessment required (Gap 2).
• Deep Strike Axes (Conclusion): Air alerts have been lifted in Kyiv (270335Z) and Zaporizhzhia Oblast (270355Z). This indicates the synchronized multi-domain strike wave has terminated kinetic effects in these primary and symbolic target areas.
• Poltava/Kharkiv Corridor (Critical Focus): Status of the UAV strike tracking toward Kharkiv through the critical reserve movement corridor (Poltava) remains UNKNOWN. This axis is now the singular highest priority for AD and BDA tasking.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear conditions persist, favoring RF offensive operations, close air support, and drone usage on the Zaporizhzhia FLE. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF units in Zaporizhzhia are engaged in static defensive fires. The successful termination of the air threat in Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia allows for the strategic reallocation of limited AD assets. The operational success of the entire defensive effort now hinges on the disposition and survival of CONPLAN DELTA.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF Intent is confirmed: operational penetration on the Zaporizhzhia Axis following the coordinated decapitation/interdiction strike.

• Offensive Execution (FACT): The RF C2 successfully executed the synchronized multi-domain operation (MDO) on schedule (0400Z H-Hour), demonstrating resilience and effective coordination despite internal friction warnings (previous reports).
• Targeting Priority (JUDGMENT): The rapid conclusion of strikes in Kyiv/Zaporizhzhia suggests that the main effort kinetic strikes were concentrated on two priorities: A) Tactical fires on the Zaporizhzhia FLE, and B) Operational paralysis via the Poltava/Kharkiv corridor targeting reserves/logistics. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Technology Deployment: Dempster-Shafer analysis retains a belief score of 0.08 in RF use of Counter-UAV systems, suggesting continued RF efforts to degrade UAF ISR/tactical fire control post-penetration.

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status

The MDO execution implies sufficient theater logistical depth to support simultaneous deep strikes and a major ground assault. RF capacity to sustain the Zaporizhzhia penetration effort is assessed as HIGH for the next 48 hours. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective and focused on maintaining the offensive tempo. The immediate activation of follow-on Information Operations (IO) (Solodaev narrative, see Section 4) coinciding with H-Hour demonstrates a synchronized kinetic/cognitive approach. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Units on the Zaporizhzhia line are at high combat readiness but are under maximum physical and cognitive stress due to the severity of the opening assault and the concurrent IO campaign.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Potential Success (AD): The lifting of air alerts in key areas suggests UAF AD successfully contained, diverted, or neutralized the threats targeting Kyiv and the immediate Zaporizhzhia C2 nodes, allowing the immediate focus to shift to ground defense. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• CRITICAL SETBACK RISK: If the previous MDCOA (successful kinetic interdiction of CONPLAN DELTA) was executed, the failure to protect the reserves now represents an operational-level catastrophe. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

INTELLIGENCE GAP 1 (CRITICAL): Confirmation of CONPLAN DELTA status remains the critical resource constraint. Until this is resolved, operational planning for counter-penetration is impossible. AD assets must be immediately re-tasked to the Poltava/Kharkiv corridor to secure the reserves if they are confirmed to have survived the 0350Z window.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO immediately amplified the cognitive attack coinciding with H-Hour.

• Command Disintegration (NEW FACT): TASS report (270345Z) claims the removal of Commander Solodaev ("friend of Poroshenko") over the Vovchansk collapse. This is designed to undermine the integrity and legitimacy of UAF command structures and internal loyalty precisely when critical battlefield decisions are being made. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Morale Degradation: The synchronization of ground defeat (Zaporizhzhia) with narratives of political corruption ("Mindichgate") and leadership purges (Solodaev) aims to collapse unit cohesion and prevent compliance with withdrawal/reserve deployment orders.

4.2. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

No immediate diplomatic shifts noted, but continued RF focus on internal destabilization aims to decrease international confidence in the Ukrainian government's ability to utilize foreign aid effectively.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

RF forces utilize momentum from the successful MDO synchronization to achieve a tactical breakthrough (5-8 km penetration) on the Zaporizhzhia FLE NLT 270800Z. RF will establish forward fire control over key GLOCs, forcing UAF to commit local tactical reserves immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

RF confirms mission-kill on CONPLAN DELTA. Recognizing the lack of strategic reserves, RF commits additional operational assets to widen the Zaporizhzhia penetration toward the Dnipropetrovsk administrative border. This forces a systemic, deep UAF withdrawal, risking the operational stability of the entire Southern Front. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: BATTLE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT & RESERVE TRACKING (J2 / J3)

1. Immediate CONPLAN DELTA Status (CRITICAL): J2 and J3 must prioritize all ISR and HUMINT assets to confirm the physical location and combat viability of CONPLAN DELTA NLT 270600Z. This is the highest decision factor for the next 24 hours.
2. Poltava/Kharkiv BDA: Conduct immediate IMINT/ISR verification along the Poltava-Kharkiv transit route for signs of kinetic impact (secondary explosions, debris) related to the UAV strike window (270335Z-270350Z).
3. Zaporizhzhia Ground ISR: J2 must confirm the density and type of RF units committed to the 0400Z assault (e.g., VDV, Motor Rifle, Armor) to refine UAF fire planning and counter-attack targeting.

R-2: FORCE MANAGEMENT & AIR DEFENSE (J3 / AD COMMAND)

1. AD Reallocation (IMMEDIATE): Confirm that all mobile AD assets previously focused on the Kyiv perimeter have been immediately re-tasked to reinforce the Dnipropetrovsk / Poltava C2 and logistics hubs.
2. Contingency Planning: J3 must draft and pre-authorize the Contingency Withdrawal Plan (CWP) for the Zaporizhzhia axis, ready for immediate execution at 270600Z if CONPLAN DELTA is confirmed mission-killed.

R-3: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (STRATCOM)

1. Counter-Disinformation (URGENT): STRATCOM must issue a unified response NLT 270500Z directly addressing the TASS 'Solodaev removal' claim. Frame this as a fabricated narrative designed to destabilize command during the RF's high-risk ground offensive, linking it directly to the previous "Mindichgate" and 'Fake Peace' efforts. Emphasis: RF lies indicate desperation on the battlefield.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS