Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 261410Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: CRITICAL MOMENT PASSED: POKROVSK ENCIRCLEMENT THREAT REACHES 1.5 KM. CONFIRMATION OF CONPLAN DELTA DEPLOYMENT IS NOW OVERDUE (H+10 MIN). RF CONFIRMS CONTINUED KINETIC INTENT; NO NEAR-TERM NEGOTIATION LIKELY.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture confirms the CRITICAL status of the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd axis, where RF forces are attempting to achieve operational encirclement.

• Myrnograd Sector (CRITICAL DETERIORATION): Open-source tactical intelligence (13:41Z) reports the distance to complete encirclement has narrowed to 1.5 km. This confirms that the RF advance timeline has been dangerously accelerated and that the operational breakthrough is imminent if stabilizing forces are not deployed immediately. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Focus of Effort: RF operational objective remains the capture of Myrnograd to destabilize the entire western flank of the Donbas defense.
• Northern Fixation (Chernihiv): Confirmed new groups of fixed-wing UAS are tracking toward northern logistics centers (Hholmy, Korop, 14:01Z). This reinforces the RF strategy of fixing UAF logistical and AD assets away from the main assault axis.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

Conditions remain favorable for sustained kinetic operations, mechanized maneuver, and high-tempo UAS employment. No operational impact assessed.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The critical control measure deadline for the initiation of CONPLAN DELTA (Regional Reserve deployment) at 261400Z has passed.

• CONPLAN DELTA Status: J3 must immediately confirm physical movement status. Failure to confirm movement within the next 30 minutes will necessitate moving to emergency contingency measures (e.g., localized defensive abandonment protocols or committing strategic reserves). (CRITICAL CONFIDENCE)
• Tactical Defense: UAF 3rd Mechanized Battalion (Bulava RPBAK, 13:58Z) reports confirmed success in localized anti-drone operations, indicating that tactical level resistance remains effective where forces are available.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is to collapse the operational front before UAF can commit reserves. The RF strategy is now confirmed as solely kinetic, leveraging hybrid operations for strategic distraction.

• Intentions Confirmation: Multiple statements by RF Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov (13:39Z, 13:48Z) explicitly reject any public discussion of potential peace plans (e.g., Trump plan) and reject the notion of military concessions regarding the "SMO." (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Judgment: This confirms that RF is maximizing military exploitation of the current defensive gap and will not pause operations for diplomatic signaling.
• Air Warfare IO: RF Rostec CEO publicly claimed Su-35S jets are forcing UAF F-16s to retreat to low altitudes (13:46Z). This is a focused Information Operation aimed at degrading UAF air force morale and the perceived efficacy of Western airframes prior to F-16 operational fielding.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The primary adaptation is the exploitation of extreme RF force attrition through intense kinetic pressure and high-tempo operations, supported by aggressive PsyOps.

• Attrition Exploitation: Reports originating from high-profile RF military channels detail catastrophic personnel losses (13:56Z, near Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia axis), describing RF battalion losses of 90%+. This highlights the high cost of their current offensive tempo but also suggests a willingness to absorb unsustainable losses to achieve a rapid operational breakthrough at Pokrovsk.
• C3/PsyOps Integration: RF forces (Volna SPN, 13:40Z) are actively using footage of captured UAF personnel ("new candidates") for immediate operational-level psychological operations, attempting to undermine unit cohesion in adjacent UAF sectors.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF sustainment must be heavily strained due to the high tempo and high attrition. However, the confirmed presence of forward logistics nodes (Kamianka depot strike, previously reported) indicates materiel is arriving at the front in sufficient quantity to sustain the immediate assault.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains synchronized, coordinating the main assault with fixation strikes (Chernihiv UAS, 14:01Z) and supporting IO/PsyOps.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture remains CRITICAL/DEFCON 2. The 1.5 km encirclement gap is the most acute threat. The overall readiness of CONPLAN DELTA forces is the defining factor for the next six hours.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Successes (Counter-Intelligence/Tactical AD):
  • Counter-Intelligence Operation resulted in a 15-year treason conviction in Sumy (14:00Z), demonstrating successful mitigation of internal espionage threats affecting C2 and logistics security.
  • Confirmed anti-UAS success by the 3rd Mechanized Brigade's anti-drone unit (13:58Z).
• Setbacks (Operational): The confirmed proximity (1.5 km) to operational encirclement on the Pokrovsk axis represents the failure to contain the initial breach.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate, verifiable confirmation of the physical deployment and speed of movement of CONPLAN DELTA forces toward the Pokrovsk-Myrnograd corridor.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF Destabilization: RF continues to promote distraction narratives (Moldova UAV claims, 13:43Z) and internal US political friction (Trump vs. NYT/critics, 14:00Z) to attempt to disrupt external support cohesion.
• UAF Counter-Narrative: UAF IO and the National Command Authority (NCA) are effectively countering the RF "collapse" narrative through high-visibility diplomatic confirmation of support. President Zelenskyy's call with EC President Von der Leyen (13:41Z) and confirmation of the EU's December timeline for a new financial package (13:56Z) provide strong signals of sustained Western commitment.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

• UAF morale is supported by the visible resilience of the NCA and confirmed diplomatic victories.
• UAF PsyOps (DShV, 14:02Z) is actively exploiting the confirmed high attrition and poor conditions of RF personnel using graphic testimonial videos ("Worms ate my friend"), aimed at further degrading RF frontline morale.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Sustained International Support is confirmed. The EU financial mechanism is progressing rapidly, and high-level dialogue confirms strategic coordination. The explicit rejection of peace negotiations by RF high officials ensures focus remains on providing military aid rather than planning for immediate cessation of hostilities.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

The situation dictates an immediate commitment to the predicted timelines established in the previous SITREP. The operational breach is critical.

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces, utilizing massed artillery and air support, will press the final 1.5 km gap to achieve operational encirclement of forward UAF elements in the Pokrovsk sector NLT 261500Z. RF will maximize speed, gambling that the UAF CONPLAN DELTA forces arrive piecemeal or too late to stabilize the perimeter.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF executes a coordinated, high-precision missile strike (Iskander/Kinzhals) against the confirmed vulnerable backup C2 nodes (Poltava/Vinnytsia) NLT 261500Z, concurrent with the peak ground breakthrough. This is designed to achieve command paralysis during the operational collapse.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: FORCE MANAGEMENT AND OPERATIONAL RESPONSE (J3)

1. URGENT CONPLAN DELTA STATUS CHECK: J3 must confirm, via redundant secure channels (SATCOM/HUMINT verification), the physical location and estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) of the lead elements of CONPLAN DELTA forces to the Myrnograd corridor NLT 261430Z.
2. PREPARE FRAGMENTED DEFENSE PROTOCOLS: Immediately issue preparatory orders to frontline units defining the boundaries and command structure for Fragmented Defense/Defensive Withdrawal in the event RF achieves complete encirclement by 261600Z.
3. COUNTER FIXATION (NORTH): Re-task mobile SHORAD units from immediate front-line positions (if possible without compromising defense) to intercept the confirmed UAS groups tracking towards Kholmy and Korop (Chernihiv) NLT 261445Z to preserve northern logistical GLOCs.

R-2: AIR DEFENSE AND STRATEGIC HARDENING (AD Command/J2)

1. C2 AD LAYERED DEFENSE: Execute final readiness checks and confirm layered defense protocols are active for strategic C2 nodes in Poltava and Vinnytsia against the 261500Z ballistic threat. Prioritize early warning and rapid response to short-trajectory missile paths.
2. COUNTER-AIR IO: Immediately disseminate intelligence to F-16 aircrews and ground support units regarding the RF Rostec/Su-35 IO claim, framing it as enemy psychological warfare to undermine confidence in Western systems. Emphasize existing mission objectives and capabilities.

R-3: INFORMATION WARFARE & COGNITIVE DEFENSE (NCA/J2 IO)

1. AMPLIFY INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT: Utilize all media platforms to immediately amplify the positive outcomes of the Zelenskyy/Von der Leyen conversation and the confirmed December timeline for EU financial aid, directly counteracting the critical military situation with evidence of strong strategic backing.
2. INTENSIFY RF MORALE OPERATIONS: Task DShV and centralized IO bureaus to maximize the distribution of confirmed high-attrition reporting and related PsyOps (e.g., the DShV "Worms" video) to RF communication channels, aiming to accelerate the morale collapse of RF personnel facing heavy resistance.

7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS