Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 260900Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS: GROUND ASSAULT INTENSIFIES (52 ENGAGEMENTS). RF BALLISTIC STRIKE CONFIRMED. COGNITIVE WARFARE REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLD.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture remains dominated by high-intensity combat on the Pokrovsk Axis. The volume of contact confirms the RF Main Effort (ME) is focused on achieving operational depth.

• Pokrovsk Axis: UAF General Staff confirms 52 combat engagements (33% of daily total) in the Pokrovsk direction over the last 24 hours. This validates the previous assessment of immediate RF kinetic exploitation. RF forces are assessed to be within striking distance of the T-05-15 GLOC near Rodynske. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Air Defense Status: UAF AD successfully engaged and suppressed 72 total enemy Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) during the 25/26 November overnight attack. However, the attack included two Iskander-M ballistic missiles launched from Rostov Oblast, indicating an escalation in strike lethality and resource commitment following the initial UAS saturation. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Other Fronts: Kinetic activity continues in Kharkiv Oblast (targeting 8 settlements) and Zaporizhzhia (Glide Bomb/Artillery strikes near Huliaipole and Prymorske), maintaining fixation of UAF reserves. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No change. Environmental factors continue to favor RF mechanized infiltration and UAS/Ballistic missile operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

Frontline units on the Pokrovsk axis are assumed to be engaged in high-attrition defensive action. The allocation of AD assets remains dangerously dispersed following the confirmed multi-directional saturation strike (Dnipro/Odesa). The confirmed Iskander-M usage heightens the threat to hardened/critical infrastructure (C2 and rail nodes).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intention is validated: Decisive tactical victory on the Pokrovsk axis synchronized with maximum cognitive paralysis of the NCA and attrition of UAF strategic logistics/C2 capacity.

• Kinetic Escalation: The enemy has demonstrated the capability to combine UAS saturation (90 platforms) with follow-up ballistic strikes (Iskander-M), confirming a highly lethal strike package intended to defeat layered defenses and penetrate hardened targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Weaponized Diplomacy (IO): RF Presidential Aide Ushakov (260635Z) officially confirmed the authenticity of the "Witkoff tapes," moving the primary Information Operation (IO) vector from alleged leak to verified political intelligence. The IO goal is now achievable: complete NCA paralysis by framing UAF political resistance as the cause of war continuation and Western abandonment. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Tactical Assessment (Yampil Area): RF sources are claiming UAF forces near Yampil (Pokrovsk axis) are restricted to "exclusively defensive, holding actions." While biased, this reinforces the view that UAF offensive capacity is currently neutralized in this critical sector. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed use of two Iskander-M ballistic missiles alongside the mass UAS attack is the primary tactical adaptation (260703Z), shifting the deep strike threat from cruise missiles/UAS to highly destructive ballistic capability requiring dedicated terminal defense systems.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are robust enough to support high-tempo ground operations (52 engagements) and multi-domain deep strikes (92 platforms, including ballistics). UAF logistics remain under severe threat due to the confirmed targeting of logistics hubs (Dnipro/Odesa).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly synchronized. UAF C2 is under maximum stress, particularly in the cognitive domain, where the confirmation of the "Witkoff leak" has provided the enemy with unparalleled leverage for internal political sabotage. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL/CONTESTED on the Pokrovsk axis. UAF readiness is challenged by extreme political/IO pressure and the need to manage high-value assets (AD) against a mixed-threat kinematic profile (UAS + Iskander-M). READINESS: AD forces demonstrated high intercept rates (72 suppressed UAVs) but must now rapidly adjust doctrine to counter the Iskander-M threat to critical infrastructure.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Success: High UAF AD performance in neutralizing a massed UAS strike. Confirmed drone success against RF troops on the Pokrovsk axis (260648Z). Setback (CRITICAL): RF official confirmation of the Ushakov/Witkoff transcripts grants immediate and maximum psychological effect to the enemy's narrative of Western abandonment and imminent surrender.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

PRIORITY REQUIREMENT: Confirmation of physical control measures (CTW) on the Pokrovsk axis, as the defense is absorbing extreme kinetic pressure (52 engagements). CONSTRAINT: Cognitive paralysis at the NCA level due to the IO campaign remains the most significant operational constraint preventing timely allocation of Reserve Force Bravo (per 251501Z report) or critical strategic counter-IO.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO campaign has achieved its primary tactical objective by confirming the "Witkoff tapes."

1. Normalization of Capitulation: The official confirmation of the leak by Ushakov and the content (Dmitriev stating he will submit documents to the US "word for word") implies US complicity in Russian demands, profoundly weakening NCA resolve.
2. Obstructionist Narrative: RF media leverages Western reports (CNN) that Kyiv is blocking three key peace points (260653Z), framing UAF as solely responsible for the ongoing conflict.
3. Domestic Distraction: TASS reports on Putin's visit to Kyrgyzstan serve to normalize Russian diplomatic activity and distract domestic and international audiences from the ground assault.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public morale is facing a severe test, balancing the confirmation of high-intensity fighting (Pokrovsk) with the simultaneous political shock of the IO campaign. The IO is designed to induce widespread doubt in the leadership's ability to maintain political sovereignty.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The international environment is immediately hostile to UAF political cohesion. The Witkoff leak confirmation is a political kinetic strike, overriding positive developments (e.g., French counter-espionage against "SOS Donbass"). DSB confirms the highest external threat hypothesis is "Diplomatic Initiative: Proposal by Russia for influencing US policy via back channel."

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF ground forces will achieve operational GLOC severance near Rodynske NLT 260930Z, exploiting the kinetic attrition and political distraction. The use of Iskander-M suggests the primary kinetic strike targeting the Dnipro rail/logistics hub NLT 260830Z (or immediately following) was ballistic, aiming for high-damage penetration, likely exceeding the predicted destruction level.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves decisive rout on the Pokrovsk axis and leverages the Iskander-M capability to strike the pre-identified backup C2 nodes (Poltava/Vinnytsia). The extreme success of the IO campaign may prompt the RF to initiate the C2 decapitation strike earlier than anticipated, aiming for total command paralysis before UAF can implement reserve mobilization or counter-IO.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: FORCE MANAGEMENT & CONTINGENCY EXECUTION (J3/Eastern Command)

1. IMMEDIATE COMMAND AUDIT: Eastern Command must immediately confirm the operational status and casualty figures of units defending the T-05-15 corridor. If withdrawal (CTW) was not executed by 260815Z (previous deadline), J3 must authorize maximum available artillery and precision fire support to create exfiltration corridors NLT 260930Z. (HIGH PRIORITY)
2. RESERVE RELEASE: NCA must be urged to authorize the deployment of Reserve Force Bravo (or equivalent) immediately, focusing movement toward Phase Line Alpha, regardless of the political climate. The kinetic window for effective reinforcement is closing rapidly.

R-2: AIR DEFENSE AND TARGET PROTECTION (AD Command)

1. BALLISTIC THREAT MITIGATION: Assume the two Iskander-M targets were high-value logistics/C2 nodes. AD Command must immediately prioritize the deployment of PAC-3/SAMP-T systems (if available) to cover Poltava and Vinnytsia C2 backup nodes to counter the MDCOA ballistic threat. (HIGH PRIORITY)
2. BDA VALIDATION: Immediately prioritize ISR tasking to acquire Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) for the confirmed Iskander-M strike targets to inform C2 relocation and logistics rerouting.

R-3: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND COUNTER-IO (NCA/J2 IO)

1. NCA DECISIVE REJECTION: The National Command Authority must issue an unequivocal statement NLT 261030Z that addresses the confirmed Ushakov/Witkoff leak. The statement must frame the leak's content as deliberate RF manipulation synchronized with the Pokrovsk ground assault, equating the diplomatic demands to explicit RF war aims (e.g., demanding all Donetsk).
2. REINFORCE SOVEREIGNTY: Publicly reiterate the rejection of all non-negotiable points (territorial concessions, troop limits) and link the ongoing high-intensity fighting (52 engagements) to the refusal to capitulate under political blackmail.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS