Archived operational intelligence briefing
TIME: 260800Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS: GLOC SEVERANCE IMMINENT. MULTI-AXIS DEEP STRIKE CONFIRMED. RF IO REACHES CRITICAL THRESHOLD FOR NCA PARALYSIS.
The operational window for critical reserve deployment (NLT 260730Z) has lapsed. RF forces are positioned for immediate kinetic exploitation along the Pokrovsk Axis.
No change. Environmental factors continue to favor RF mechanized infiltration and UAS operations.
Frontline units on the Pokrovsk axis are assumed to be initiating Controlled Tactical Withdrawal (CTW) based on the previous critical assessment, though confirmation is pending. The sudden expansion of the deep-strike axis (Dnipro and Odesa) dramatically complicates AD resource management, lowering kinetic protection for critical C2 nodes.
RF intent remains synchronized destruction: Ground breakthrough coordinated with strategic cognitive paralysis and logistical interdiction.
The primary tactical adaptation is the confirmation of a dual-axis UAS strike (Dnipro/Odesa), validating the RF ability to pressure multiple strategic logistics and transit hubs simultaneously. This adaptation confirms the effectiveness of feints used in previous targeting cycles. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
RF logistics are adequate. UAF logistics are under direct kinetic threat due to the targeting of Dnipro and Odesa, which serve as crucial transit points for Eastern and Southern Commands.
RF C2 remains highly synchronized across the kinetic and cognitive domains. UAF C2 remains under extreme pressure. The IO pressure wave (alleged US demands for all Donetsk, troop limits, and NATO denial) has reached a critical intensity point designed to prevent decisive, decentralized command action. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
POSTURE: CRITICAL/DEGRADING on the Pokrovsk axis. AD posture is dangerously diluted due to the dual-axis deep strike threat. READINESS: AD forces are attempting dynamic reallocation under combat conditions. Failure to confirm CTW status means a high probability of severe attrition within the hour.
Setback: Confirmation of synchronized UAS strikes on two separate, high-value logistics nodes (Dnipro/Odesa), indicating successful RF intelligence preparation and targeting. Setback: RF IO success in leveraging internal Western political narratives (Witkoff leak) to achieve peak psychological effect during the ground assault.
PRIORITY REQUIREMENT: Immediate AD decision on asset allocation between the two concurrent deep-strike threats (Dnipro vs. Odesa). CONSTRAINT: Political paralysis exacerbated by the IO campaign continues to be the primary operational constraint against timely kinetic decisions (R-1).
The RF IO campaign has achieved maximum effect density and synchronization with kinetic action. Key vectors:
Public sentiment is being tested by the simultaneous tactical failure (Pokrovsk) and strategic political threat (Weaponized Diplomacy). The specificity of the alleged demands (All Donetsk, troop limits) provides clear, demoralizing objectives for the RF.
The international environment is hostile toward UAF operational autonomy. While Montenegro's visa move (260622Z) signals diplomatic tightening against Russia, the immediate and overriding political signal is the alleged US back-channel diplomacy, which directly undercuts UAF resolve.
(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF ground forces will achieve operational GLOC severance near Rodynske NLT 260900Z. Simultaneously, the confirmed UAS ingress will precede synchronized high-value missile strikes (Kalibr/Iskander) targeting the Dnipro rail/logistics hub NLT 260830Z and potentially the Odesa port infrastructure NLT 260930Z. The combined effect is to achieve tactical victory at Pokrovsk while crippling immediate UAF reinforcement capabilities.
(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves decisive rout on the Pokrovsk axis. This tactical success is immediately leveraged by precision strikes targeting Dnipro and Odesa, followed by an effective decapitation strike against the remaining designated backup operational C2 nodes (Poltava/Vinnytsia or supporting communications infrastructure), achieving total administrative and logistical paralysis of Eastern/Center Commands and compromising Southern sustainment.
| Event | Estimated Timeline (NLT) | Confidence | Status/Action Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| CTW Execution (Pokrovsk Sector) | 260815Z | CRITICAL | IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION. Field C2 must confirm all exposed units are executing mandatory withdrawal to Phase Line Alpha. |
| Dnipro Kinetic Strike | 260830Z | HIGH | AD must be fully postured to mitigate this single-axis deep strike. |
| RF GLOC Secure (Rodynske Sector) | 260900Z | HIGH | Tactical depth achieved; remaining UAF units are trapped. |
| Odesa Kinetic Strike | 260930Z | MEDIUM | AD assets must be deployed to protect port/rail infrastructure. |
| Priority | Gap/Requirement | Confidence | Tasking Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (CRITICAL) | IMINT confirmation of physical penetration depth and control of the T-05-15 GLOC (Rodynske area). | CRITICAL | Define the new operational Phase Line and fire support requirements (R-1). |
| 2 (CRITICAL) | ISR/ELINT validation of specific missile launch indicators/target acquisition on Odesa City. | HIGH | Determine the scale and type of strike (Missile vs. UAS saturation) to optimize AD (R-2). |
| 3 (HIGH) | SIGINT monitoring of RF C2 channels for success indicators (e.g., confirmation of Witkoff IO success or failure to achieve desired C2 paralysis). | CRITICAL | Gauge the effectiveness of R-3 counter-IO efforts. |
| 4 (MEDIUM) | HUMINT/OSINT collection to verify the authenticity and full transcript of the alleged "Witkoff tapes" (260615Z). | MEDIUM | Essential for shaping long-term diplomatic strategy and defining NCA negotiating red lines. |
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