Sitrep 2025-11-26 05:13:53

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 260600Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS: EXPANSION OF KINETIC THREAT ZONE (KREMENCHUK & KRYVYI RIH). IO PARALYSIS AT PEAK. URGENT C2 RECOVERY REQUIRED.

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational situation remains critically degraded following the failure to commit operational reserves ('Force Delta') NLT 260430Z. RF forces are actively exploiting the resulting gap on the Pokrovsk Axis.

Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmiysk Axis: Intense contact continues. RF propaganda claims destruction of UAF armor northwest of Krasnoarmiysk (Pokrovsk), confirming RF proximity to critical rear areas and continued pressure on the T-05-15 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC). (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Siversk Sector: RF sources claim a breakthrough on the northern outskirts of Siversk, seizing UAF fortifications. This potential secondary breach threatens to fragment UAF operational attention and reserves. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - Requires immediate verification, see R-4.1)
Deep Kinetic Zone Expansion: The critical deep strike focus now encompasses Kremenchuk (confirmed UAS track in previous reporting) and Kryvyi Rih (confirmed hostile BPL approaching from the south, 260509Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No significant change. Low visibility and winter conditions continue to favor RF mechanized infiltration and standoff targeting operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

Frontline units on the Pokrovsk axis are in a Critical/Degraded posture, fighting without planned blocking support. Air Defense (AD) assets are severely strained due to the synchronized threats targeting Kremenchuk, Kryvyi Rih, and ongoing indiscriminate strikes.

Zaporizhzhia: Confirmed collateral damage from the night attack stands at 19 wounded civilians (up from 18), with 51 residential buildings damaged. This underscores the successful use of AD saturation tactics by the RF against soft targets. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is the immediate operational collapse of the Pokrovsk defense coupled with the neutralization of key logistics hubs (Kremenchuk/Kryvyi Rih) and C2 nodes via synchronized multi-domain pressure.

Justification Cycle: RF MOD reports confirming the interception of 33 Ukrainian UAVs overnight are actively used to justify large-scale retaliatory strikes against UAF rear areas, validating the forecast MLCOA against Kremenchuk/Kryvyi Rih. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
Ground Offensive Synchronization: RF appears to be attempting to generate breakthroughs on multiple axes (Pokrovsk, Siversk) to exhaust UAF operational reserves that were not committed on the primary front.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed hostile UAS approaching Kryvyi Rih (260509Z) is a significant adaptation. It suggests RF is not solely focusing on Kremenchuk but is attempting to:

Force diversion of AD assets away from the primary target (Kremenchuk).
Threaten the Kryvyi Rih industrial complex and associated rail/road junctions, which support the southern portion of the operational area.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains adaptive and highly effective, maintaining synchronization between kinetic strikes, ground operations, and the cognitive domain. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

2.4. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are assessed as sufficient to sustain the current high-tempo offensive operations in the Donbas.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL. The immediate risk of operational rout on the Pokrovsk axis remains 0-4 hours. The successful destruction of UAF armor near Krasnoarmiysk highlights vulnerability during localized counter-actions. READINESS: AD readiness is strained across all vectors (Kremenchuk, Kryvyi Rih, and remaining C2 nodes). C2 recovery is paramount.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setback: Confirmed failure to execute operational reserve deployment protocols NLT 260430Z. Confirmed equipment losses near Krasnoarmiysk. Success (Cognitive): UAF General Staff maintains a high-tempo, morale-focused counter-propaganda output, publishing loss figures and triumphalist narratives to stabilize domestic morale despite battlefield setbacks.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

PRIORITY REQUIREMENT: Immediate commitment of a ready blocking force ('Force Echo'). AD assets must be allocated to manage the expanded threat (Kremenchuk AND Kryvyi Rih). CONSTRAINT: Continued NCA/Operational C2 paralysis resulting from pervasive IO/diplomatic disinformation remains the primary constraint preventing timely defensive execution.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO is now leveraging highly specific, external statements to undermine resolve:

Diplomatic Exploitation: Pro-Kremlin channels are heavily disseminating edited or out-of-context quotes from Donald Trump (claiming Russian 'concessions' only require them to "cease hostilities and capture no more lands"), framing the conflict as effectively lost and negotiation as imminent surrender.
Pessimism Amplification: The immediate reposting of news suggesting the "US Army Secretary warned Ukraine of imminent defeat" is designed to fracture international perception and reduce UAF fighting morale. This is a classic psychological warfare tactic used to force battlefield outcomes by convincing the adversary of inevitability.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is under extreme duress due to critical frontline news, high civilian casualties (Zaporizhzhia 19 wounded), and relentless diplomatic uncertainty manufactured by RF IO.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF continues to weaponize international diplomatic discourse (Trump statements, US official warnings) to induce paralysis within the UAF NCA, preventing authorization of critical force movements needed to stabilize the Eastern Front.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forces will achieve operational depth past the T-05-15 GLOC near Rodynske (NLT 260900Z). Simultaneously, the RF will execute a synchronized, multi-axis deep strike:

Kremenchuk Strike: Targeted strike package (UMPK/Shahed swarm) against the high-value logistics or energy hub (NLT 260700Z), justified by the Cheboksary incident.
Kryvyi Rih Fixation: The confirmed hostile BPL track near Kryvyi Rih will be used to draw or fix SHORAD/MRAD assets, preventing their transfer to Kremenchuk or the Pokrovsk sector.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves operational breakthrough at Pokrovsk, forcing a rapid, uncontrolled UAF rout. Leveraging the justification of the Cheboksary attack, RF launches a massive, synchronized precision strike (Iskander/Kalibr) targeting the key logistics hub at Kremenchuk AND follows through on the threat against Kryvyi Rih infrastructure, aiming for critical supply chain severing, coupled with precision strikes on the operational C2 nodes (Poltava/Vinnytsia), leading to total strategic paralysis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

Event	Estimated Timeline (NLT)	Confidence	Status/Action Required
Kremenchuk/Kryvyi Rih Strike	260700Z	HIGH	AD Command must execute R-2 (Dual-axis prioritization) NOW.
Force Echo Blocking Position	260630Z	CRITICAL	C2 MUST CONFIRM PHYSICAL LOCATION. Failure to establish the blocking position before this time makes CTW (Controlled Tactical Withdrawal) impossible.
RF GLOC Secure (Rodynske Sector)	260900Z	HIGH	Execute controlled withdrawal protocols (R-1.2) for exposed UAF units.

6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: FORCE MANAGEMENT & DEFENSE EXECUTION (J3/Eastern Command)

C2 FAILOVER AND FORCE ECHO: Immediately implement C2 contingency protocols. Designate the nearest available, uncompromised, ready formation as 'Force Echo.' Authorize its immediate, physical movement to establish a linear blocking position 5-10km rear of the T-05-15 GLOC (NLT 260630Z). Recommendation: Utilize satellite communications or redundant C2 pathways to circumvent IO-induced psychological delay.
TACTICAL WITHDRAWAL: If 'Force Echo' deployment is not confirmed by 260630Z, exposed UAF units near Rodynske must be ordered to execute Controlled Tactical Withdrawal (CTW) protocols immediately.

R-2: AIR DEFENSE AND TARGET PROTECTION (AD Command)

DUAL-AXIS AD SATURATION: Given the validated simultaneous threats, prioritize AD assets to provide high-density protection for both Kremenchuk (rail/energy) and Kryvyi Rih (industrial/rail). Reallocate 40% of mobile SHORAD/MRAD to Kremenchuk and 30% to Kryvyi Rih (NLT 260630Z).
C2 Node Protection: Maintain 100% alert status and dedicated SHORAD coverage for all operational C2 nodes (Poltava/Vinnytsia) to mitigate the MDCOA decapitation strike threat.

R-3: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND COUNTER-IO (NCA/J2 IO)

COUNTER-PARALYSIS EXECUTION: NCA must issue an urgent, unified statement (NLT 260630Z) rejecting all RF-manipulated diplomatic narratives (Trump statements, US warnings). Focus the narrative on the confirmed escalation (Kremenchuk/Kryvyi Rih strikes) being justified by the fabricated Cheboksary incident, framing negotiation rhetoric as a cover for mass murder of civilians.
ZAPORIZHZHIA CASUALTY FOCUS: Use the verified data (19 wounded, 51 buildings damaged) from Zaporizhzhia OVA to internationally condemn indiscriminate RF tactics, undermining the 'retaliatory strike' justification.

7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

Priority	Gap/Requirement	Confidence	Tasking Rationale
1 (CRITICAL)	IMINT/UAS confirmation of physical movement and current grid coordinates of 'Force Echo.'	CRITICAL	Verify immediate C2 authority execution and assess the time remaining before the blocking position is established (R-1).
2 (CRITICAL)	IMINT/SIGINT verification of RF presence and penetration depth near Siversk (northern flank).	CRITICAL	Determine if the claimed Siversk breakthrough is verified, requiring an immediate strategic reallocation of limited reserves.
3 (HIGH)	ISR validation of specific target type (rail, oil refinery, military depot) by the UAS group near Kremenchuk and the hostile BPL near Kryvyi Rih.	HIGH	Essential for optimizing AD point defense and ensuring post-strike supply chain resiliency (R-2).
4 (MEDIUM)	SIGINT monitoring of RF C2 channels for confirmation of the decision to launch the Cheboksary-justified retaliatory strike package (MDCOA/MLCOA timing).	MEDIUM	Early warning of the deep strike launch time.

Situation Report