Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 260600Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS: OPERATIONAL RESERVE FAILURE. CHEBOKSARY INCIDENT WEAPONIZED. KREMENCHUK STRIKE IMMINENT. C2 PARALYSIS PERSISTS.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces continue high-tempo exploitation on the Pokrovsk Axis. The window for establishing a robust defensive line via secondary reserve commitment (NLT 260430Z) has expired, resulting in a critical vulnerability.

• Pokrovsk Axis: Units along the T-05-15 GLOC near Rodynske are fixed and highly exposed. Immediate tactical C2 failure is assessed, requiring immediate execution of controlled withdrawal procedures.
• Deep Kinetic Focus: The UAS track approaching Kremenchuk is confirmed as the primary deep kinetic focus, threatening the central logistics spine.
• Southern Front Kinetic Pressure: Confirmed RF night attack on Zaporizhzhia resulting in 18 civilian casualties (UAF Zaporizhzhia OVA). This demonstrates sustained, indiscriminate RF kinetic pressure leveraging AD dilution.
• UAF Deep Counter-Action: UAF Air Force reports new UAS tracks near Kherson, vectoring toward Kryvyi Rih, suggesting continued UAF reconnaissance or deep strike efforts, potentially targeting RF logistics or C2 in the region.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No significant change. Low visibility continues to favor RF mechanized movement and deep standoff targeting operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The failure to authorize and confirm the physical movement of 'Force Delta' (blocking reserves) by the NLT deadline results in frontline units operating in a Critical/Degraded posture. AD prioritization is critically stretched between supporting Pokrovsk withdrawal, defending the Northern fixation strikes (Kharkiv/Chernihiv), and protecting the newly threatened Kremenchuk hub.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is the collapse of the Pokrovsk defense combined with strategic paralysis induced by synchronized deep strikes and Information Operations (IO).

• Kinetic Justification (CRITICAL): RF sources (TASS, ASTRA) confirm the destruction of 33 UAVs overnight across RF regions, including one over Bryansk and a successful strike on Cheboksary (Chuvashia) resulting in two civilian casualties and residential damage. This is being immediately weaponized by RF media to justify the forecasted MLCOA deep kinetic retaliation strikes. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• IO Synchronization: RF IO (Dva Mayora, TASS) is actively leveraging leaked/fabricated information regarding the US peace plan (Trump's proposed reduction from 28 to 22 points, alleged stenograms) to amplify the cognitive domain attack on UAF National Command Authority (NCA) resolve and public sentiment.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF successfully used the Cheboksary incident to transition from generalized justification to specific, verified targeting justification for its kinetic operations. The reallocation of assets to Kremenchuk remains the key operational adaptation, exploiting UAF defensive asset rigidity.

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF C2 remains highly adaptive and effective, demonstrated by the immediate and synchronized weaponization of the Cheboksary attack across domestic and international IO channels to support the kinetic tempo.

2.4. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are sufficient. The UAF UAS tracks directed toward Kryvyi Rih indicate UAF attempts to target the operational depth supporting the Pokrovsk offensive, but these attempts have not yet degraded RF capacity.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: CRITICAL. The operational C2 failure to commit 'Force Delta' means the T-05-15 GLOC defense is unsustainable. Immediate execution of fallback plans is mandatory. READINESS: Frontline unit readiness is highly stressed. AD readiness is critically low due to simultaneous multiple-domain threats (Pokrovsk, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia, IO paralysis).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

Setback: Operational C2 paralysis leading to the expiration of the reserve commitment window (260430Z). Success (Limited): UAF continues to execute deep reconnaissance/strike missions (Kherson/Kryvyi Rih tracks), maintaining a limited offensive/retaliatory capacity in the deep rear.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

PRIORITY REQUIREMENT: Immediate AD asset reallocation to Kremenchuk. CONSTRAINT: C2 remains the primary constraint. The continued IO pressure regarding 'peace plans' and 'surrender narratives' prevents timely execution of critical defensive maneuvers.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF IO is exploiting the US diplomatic sphere:

1. Peace Plan Manipulation: TASS and pro-Kremlin channels are amplifying reports about Trump reducing the peace plan from 28 to 22 points, and discussing alleged stenograms of Western advisors. This is designed to create public doubt regarding international support and reinforce the 'surrender/negotiation' narrative, maintaining NCA paralysis.
2. Retaliation Legitimacy: The detailed confirmation of casualties and residential damage in Cheboksary (Chuvashia) is a deliberate, necessary step for the RF to justify the use of high-value precision assets against UAF rear areas (MLCOA/MDCOA).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is highly volatile due to the combination of high-intensity strikes (18 casualties in Zaporizhzhia), critical setbacks on the Pokrovsk front, and pervasive diplomatic uncertainty generated by the IO campaign.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE) RF is applying pressure globally. The statement by the RF Justice Minister regarding countermeasures to Western asset seizure is designed to deter further Western military and financial support by raising the economic cost of escalation. Diplomatic activity is weaponized to affect tactical outcomes.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF mechanized forces will exploit the current gap and secure the T-05-15 GLOC near Rodynske (NLT 260900Z). Simultaneously, the UAS asset approaching Kremenchuk will finalize targeting data for a focused strike package (likely UMPK or Shahed swarm) against the Kremenchuk Oil Refinery or major railway junction (NLT 260700Z). This strike will be publicly justified by the Cheboksary incident.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves operational breakthrough at Pokrovsk, forcing a rout. Leveraging the justification of the Cheboksary attack, RF launches a massive, synchronized precision strike (Iskander/Kalibr) targeting the key logistics hub at Kremenchuk and the remaining operational C2 nodes (Poltava/Vinnytsia), aiming for complete strategic paralysis and neutralization of UAF counter-attack potential.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: FORCE MANAGEMENT & DEFENSE EXECUTION (J3/Eastern Command)

1. C2 FAILOVER AND FORCE ECHO: Immediately implement C2 contingency protocols for the Eastern sector. Designate the nearest available, uncompromised, ready formation as 'Force Echo' (replacing the failed 'Force Delta' authorization). Authorize its immediate, physical movement to establish a linear blocking position 5-10km rear of the T-05-15 GLOC (NLT 260630Z).
2. TACTICAL WITHDRAWAL: Frontline units fixed near Rodynske must be ordered to execute Controlled Tactical Withdrawal (CTW) protocols immediately to prevent encirclement. Utilize pre-planned contact points and indirect fire smoke screens.

R-2: AIR DEFENSE AND TARGET PROTECTION (AD Command)

1. KREMENCHUK AD SATURATION: Given the validated threat, prioritize and reallocate 70% of available mobile SHORAD/MRAD assets from lower priority sectors (e.g., Sumy, pending review) to provide high-density point defense of the Kremenchuk railway junction and energy infrastructure (NLT 260630Z).
2. KRYVYI RIH TRACK MONITORING: Monitor UAF UAS tracks near Kherson/Kryvyi Rih. Ensure these operational movements do not unintentionally draw RF AD/kinetic retaliation that could degrade critical infrastructure in that region.

R-3: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS AND COUNTER-IO (NCA/J2 IO)

1. COUNTER-PARALYSIS EXECUTION: NCA must issue an urgent, high-profile statement (NLT 260630Z) linking the RF Cheboksary incident claim directly to the imminent kinetic strike on Kremenchuk (R-1 MLCOA). Frame the Cheboksary incident as fabricated or exaggerated pretext for targeting UAF civilian infrastructure.
2. DIPLOMATIC IO DEFLECTION: Publicly dismiss RF manipulation of the US peace plan details as a desperate attempt to fracture Ukrainian unity during a key ground offensive. Emphasize that battlefield stabilization is the only path to legitimate negotiation.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS