Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 260045Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS – GROUND ASSAULT AND SYNCHRONIZED DEEP INTERDICTION PHASE - DP-4 EXECUTION CRITICAL

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The Russian Federation (RF) offensive operation is fully underway across multiple domains. The Pokrovsk Axis remains the center of gravity (CoG) for ground maneuver, focused on seizing the T-05-15 GLOC.

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Kinetic operations have broadened geographically with confirmed KAB strikes on the Sumy region (260039Z). This expands the deep-strike fixation zone, previously limited to Kryvyi Rih and Dnipropetrovsk, demonstrating RF intent to paralyze reinforcement from the North-East.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No change. Low visibility and favorable ground conditions persist, supporting RF mechanized movement on the Pokrovsk Axis.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF forces are in Phase VI (Assault Execution).

• Pokrovsk Axis: Confirmation of mechanized main body movement across the Line of Departure (LOD) is expected momentarily, aligning with the previous assessment (NLT 260030Z).
• Deep Interdiction: The simultaneous UAS tracking over Kryvyi Rih (targeting Reserve Force Bravo (RFB)) and the new KAB strikes on Sumy confirm a coordinated deep interdiction strategy aimed at total operational isolation of the Pokrovsk Axis.
• Friendly Controls: DP-4 (Counter-IO Statement) timeline (260045Z) has been reached. Immediate confirmation of its execution is required to counter RF synchronization success.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is the immediate operational synchronization of tactical breakthrough and strategic paralysis.

• Primary Intent: Seize the T-05-15 GLOC while neutralizing all effective UAF counter-response mechanisms, specifically targeting Reserve Force Bravo (RFB).
• Tactical Synchronization: The deployment of KAB strikes against Sumy (00:39Z) is assessed as a deliberate fixation effort to lock down Northern UAF reserves and Air Defense (AD) assets, preventing their lateral transfer to the Pokrovsk axis or the Kryvyi Rih corridor. This significantly increases the vulnerability of RFB.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF is demonstrating exceptional multi-domain synchronization. The kinetic expansion into Sumy, coupled with the continued diplomatic IO (Trump/Witkoff statements disseminated between 00:18Z and 00:31Z), validates the RF operational method: use high-profile diplomatic deception to maximize the psychological impact of the ground assault while simultaneously fixing UAF reserves kinetically across multiple deep vectors.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF is sustaining a high operational tempo across multiple theaters (Pokrovsk ground maneuver, long-range UAS ISR, and high-frequency KAB/missile deployment). Fuel and munition supply is adequate to support the current assault phase.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF C2 structure is performing optimally, achieving unprecedented temporal and domain synchronization between strategic IO (TASS/Trump messaging) and tactical kinetic operations (Pokrovsk ground assault, Kryvyi Rih UAS, Sumy KABs).

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Forward defenses on the Pokrovsk Axis are in direct confrontation phase. The rear is under active multi-point engagement. READINESS: UAF command structure is under extreme pressure from the combined kinetic and cognitive assault. The critical vulnerability remains the status and protection of Reserve Force Bravo (RFB).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

CRITICAL SETBACK (Cognitive/Kinetic): The RF Information Operation (IO) is highly successful, consuming critical command attention during the immediate execution phase of the ground assault. The failure (or delay) in executing DP-4 allows the deception narrative to spread uncontested.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

PRIORITY REQUIREMENT: EW deployment over Kryvyi Rih remains the single most important non-kinetic task to protect RFB. Kinetic AD must now be allocated not just to Kryvyi Rih, but must also monitor the Sumy sector for follow-on deep missile strikes. CONSTRAINT: AD resources are stretched critically thin across three actively prosecuted axes (Pokrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The RF IO campaign (Trump/Witkoff meetings, solved peace points) is successfully transitioning from pre-assault narrative setting to providing active kinetic cover. Ukrainian media reporting the RF narrative (RBC-Ukraine 00:19Z - 00:31Z) inadvertently amplifies the deception, creating cognitive dissonance among UAF troops: ground assault is happening, yet the war is supposedly being negotiated away.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The synchronization is designed to demoralize reserves and undermine popular belief in the NCA's ability to wage war, suggesting the political decision has already been made by allies.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF is weaponizing the announced US-RF meeting to achieve operational goals. Immediate refutation by the NCA (DP-4) is essential to preserve the integrity of alliance support and domestic morale.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF mechanized forces (40th/155th OMBR) will confirm breach of the initial UAF defensive line on the Pokrovsk axis NLT 260100Z. RF will attempt to immediately widen the breach and exploit toward Rodynske.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will execute precision deep strikes (Iskander/Kinzhals) NLT 260100Z – 260200Z utilizing real-time targeting data from the Kryvyi Rih UAS group to destroy Reserve Force Bravo (RFB) assets while they are maneuvering or assembled. Failure to activate EW/ACPDs will result in catastrophic operational interdiction, guaranteeing a decisive breakthrough at Pokrovsk.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: FORCE PROTECTION AND AIR DEFENSE (AD Command/J3)

1. PRIORITIZE EW DENIAL OVER KRYVYI RIH: This remains the top kinetic priority. Dedicate all available EW spectrum/assets to jamming/blinding the confirmed UAS track over the RFB movement corridor NLT 260050Z.
2. IMMEDIATE COMMITMENT OF ACPDS: Confirm that Mobile AD Convoy Protection Detachments (ACPDs) are actively moving and providing coverage for Reserve Force Bravo (RFB) movement. If RFB status is unknown (Gap 3), ACPDs must secure the most likely pre-planned RFB assembly areas.
3. SUMY KAB ASSESSMENT: Initiate immediate Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) on the confirmed KAB strikes in the Sumy region (00:39Z) to determine target type (AD site, logistics hub, or C2 node) and predict the vector of potential follow-on missile strikes.

R-2: COMMAND RESPONSE (NCA/J2 IO)

1. IMMEDIATE EXECUTION OF DP-4 COUNTER-IO: NCA must immediately issue a robust, explicit public statement. The message must link the RF diplomatic deception (Trump/Witkoff rumors) directly to the simultaneous Pokrovsk ground assault, labeling the narrative as a deliberate MASKIROVKA to paralyze the UAF response. The target audience is internal (UAF troops and reserves).

R-3: FRONTLINE OPERATIONS (EASTERN COMMAND)

1. VERIFY AND RESERVE COUNTER-ATTACK ASSETS: Confirm the exact location and depth of the breach on the Pokrovsk Axis (Gap 1). Eastern Command must exercise extreme fire discipline, committing only essential holding forces, and must not commit RFB until the immediate MDCOA threat is addressed (EW/AD success).

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS