Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 260015Z NOV 25 SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS – GROUND ASSAULT PHASE INITIATION – MDCOA EXECUTION CONFIRMED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational clock has passed the anticipated T-0 (260000Z) for the Russian Federation (RF) mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk Axis. The T-05-15 GLOC remains the decisive terrain objective.

CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Deep operational space around Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia has transitioned from contested to an actively prosecuted interdiction zone. This confirms the RF commitment to simultaneously executing both the Most Likely Course of Action (MLCOA - Ground Assault) and the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA - Reserve Force Interdiction).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No change. Current ground conditions favor the RF mechanized exploitation phase. Visibility remains low, aiding infiltration elements preceding the main breach attempt.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF forces are assessed to be in Phase VI (Assault Execution).

• Pokrovsk Axis: Expect confirmation of main mechanized force (40th/155th OMBR) movement across the Line of Departure (LOD) NLT 260030Z, preceded by heavy preparatory fires (KAB and Artillery).
• Deep Interdiction/Reconnaissance: Multiple new Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) tracks confirm sustained RF intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) focusing on key logistic and reserve corridors:
  • Kryvyi Rih Vector (00:11Z): UAS confirmed tracking towards the Kryvyi Rih area. This location is critical, lying directly on the anticipated movement route for Reserve Force Bravo (RFB) and functioning as a major supply hub.
  • Odesa/Zaporizhzhia Vector (00:04Z - 00:05Z): UAS groups targeting Odesa and Zaporizhzhia infrastructure confirms the continuation of the kinetic shaping operation to fix Southern Air Defense (AD) assets.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is the immediate operational synchronization of tactical breakthrough and strategic paralysis.

• Primary Intent: Seize the T-05-15 GLOC using mechanized assault forces, while preventing any effective Ukrainian counter-response by interdicting reserves and paralyzing C2/NCA.
• Synchronized Execution: The RF maximized Information Operations (IO) targeting NCA and Western Allies (Trump/TASS messaging at 00:00Z) precisely at the moment of ground assault initiation (T-0). This suggests extremely high-level C2 synchronization between kinetic, non-kinetic, and political domains.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The MDCOA has initiated. The shift of UAS focus specifically onto the Kryvyi Rih corridor (validated by D-S belief and new tracks) confirms RF is actively preparing real-time targeting for precision strikes against RFB or associated logistical infrastructure. RF is prioritizing the destruction of reserves over general infrastructure strikes.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF is demonstrating the ability to sustain high-tempo, multi-domain operations across several axes (Pokrovsk ground force sustainment, persistent long-range UAS/missile resupply for deep strikes).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF C2 is performing optimally. The precise timing of the strategic IO messaging (00:00Z) to mask the tactical ground assault initiation confirms centralized, highly effective command structure capable of multi-domain synchronization.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Forward defenses on the Pokrovsk Axis are at maximum readiness for direct assault. The operational rear (Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk) must now be treated as a live engagement zone. READINESS: Reserve Force Bravo (RFB) is moving into a confirmed high-risk kinetic environment. The effectiveness of RFB deployment now depends entirely on immediate Mobile AD/EW coverage being established along the route, a requirement identified but not yet fulfilled.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

CRITICAL SETBACK (Kinetic): The RF has confirmed the location/trajectory of the most critical UAF reserve movement corridor (Kryvyi Rih). If RFB movement was ordered (per previous R-2), it is currently highly vulnerable to imminent precision strike.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

PRIORITY REQUIREMENT: Immediate, tactical employment of Electronic Warfare (EW) assets to blind the UAS operating over Kryvyi Rih. Kinetic AD response must be reserved for incoming stand-off weapons (missiles/KABs). CONSTRAINT: The commitment of RFB must be coupled with the release of the specialized AD Convoy Protection Detachments (ACPDs), which are the only assets capable of mitigating the immediate interdiction threat.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The RF IO campaign has transitioned into providing kinetic cover. The TASS reporting on Trump's "progress" and the confirmation of high-level US/RF meetings (00:00Z - 00:03Z) is designed to create a global perception of imminent de-escalation, preventing rapid allied political response and further demoralizing UAF combatants who may believe their efforts are being negotiated away.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The simultaneous strategic IO push and ground assault risks critical deterioration of reserve morale and public support for mobilization, as RF aims to exploit the perception that the war is politically over before it is militarily decided.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The announced US-RF meeting (Whitkoff/Kushner/Putin) is a major diplomatic weapon deployed by RF to secure their operational objectives on the ground. Quick, public denial and refutation by NCA and relevant US officials (DP-4) is essential to counter the IO success.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF mechanized forces will secure the line of departure (LOD) and initiate breach attempts on the Pokrovsk axis NLT 260030Z. This assault aims to rapidly seize the T-05-15 GLOC to initiate exploitation operations toward Kostiantynivka.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF will execute precision strikes targeting Reserve Force Bravo (RFB). Utilizing real-time data from the UAS currently operating over Kryvyi Rih, RF will launch Iskander/Kinzhals (NLT 260100Z) to strike RFB assembly areas, or movement chokepoints, achieving catastrophic operational interdiction and guaranteeing a breakthrough at Pokrovsk.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: FORCE PROTECTION AND AIR DEFENSE (AD Command/J3)

1. EXECUTE EW DENIAL OVER KRYVYI RIH (IMMEDIATE): All dedicated EW platforms must be immediately activated and prioritized for the Kryvyi Rih/Dnipropetrovsk corridor. Blind the confirmed UAS to deny RF the real-time targeting required for the MDCOA precision strike.
2. COMMIT ACPDS: Mobile AD Convoy Protection Detachments (ACPDs) must be immediately assigned and dispersed along the RFB movement routes. If RFB is moving, its protection is the single most critical AD mission.
3. SEEK AND DESTROY: Target and engage the confirmed UAS over Kryvyi Rih (00:11Z track) using SHORAD or small arms fire if necessary. Neutralizing the ISR asset is mission-critical.

R-2: FRONT LINE RESPONSE (EASTERN COMMAND)

1. CONFIRM BREACH STATUS (IMMEDIATE): Utilize all available tactical ISR (UAS/SIGINT) to confirm the exact location and strength of RF forces crossing the LOD on the Pokrovsk Axis. Avoid committing limited counter-attack forces until the primary vector of the RF breach is definitively identified.
2. MAINTAIN FIRE DISCIPLINE: Commanders must be aware that RF IO will likely amplify tactical successes (e.g., claimed capture of Rodynske) to trigger premature UAF reserve commitment. Base decisions solely on confirmed battlefield intelligence.

R-3: STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (NCA/J2 IO)

1. EXECUTE IMMEDIATE COUNTER-IO (DP-4): The NCA must issue a robust, explicit public statement NLT 260045Z linking the Trump/TASS diplomatic claims directly to the simultaneous Pokrovsk ground assault. Frame the claims as a deliberate RF deception operation (MASKIROVKA) to cover kinetic aggression.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS