Situation Report

OPERATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (OP-INT-SITREP)

TIME: 2025-11-25 2345Z SUBJECT: POKROVSK AXIS – T-MINUS 15 MINUTES TO MLCOA EXECUTION – MDCOA INITIATION CONFIRMED

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-TEMP)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational clock is at T-Minus 15 minutes until the projected start of the main RF mechanized assault on the Pokrovsk Axis (NLT 260000Z). The T-05-15 GLOC remains the decisive terrain objective.

KEY DEVELOPMENT (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The primary focus of RF non-kinetic operations has now shifted from strategic C2 paralysis (IO) to tactical operational depth paralysis (UAS), specifically targeting anticipated UAF reserve movement corridors.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No significant change. Ground conditions favor RF mechanized exploitation along main roads. Visibility remains degraded, favoring covert maneuver elements expected to precede the main assault at 0000Z.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF forces are in Phase V (Assault Execution Preparation).

• Deep Strike Reconnaissance/Interdiction: Multiple new UAS groups detected across the deep operational rear confirm RF is actively prosecuting the MDCOA preparation phase, likely targeting Reserve Force Bravo’s (or alternative reserve) movement routes and primary/backup C2 nodes.

  • Kirovohrad Vector (23:42Z): UAS tracked from Dnipropetrovsk/Kryvyi Rih towards Kirovohrad Oblast. This direction indicates targeting of key internal logistic hubs or the secondary C2/reserve concentration area previously identified for protection (Poltava/Vinnytsia).
  • Northern Fixation (23:14Z): UAS in Sumy/Konotop (SW course) confirms RF intent to fix northern reserves and logistics.

• UAF Status: The failure to execute Reserve Force Bravo movement prior to 2240Z (DP-1) has forced any immediate movement into a confirmed, actively scouted interdiction zone. Defensive forces on the Pokrovsk axis are now preparing for engagement under the assumption of no immediate relief.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

RF intent is synchronization of deep kinetic effects and ground exploitation. The ground attack will proceed NLT 0000Z.

CRITICAL ADAPTATION (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF is executing simultaneous multi-domain pressure:

1. Ground: Initiate mechanized assault (Pokrovsk/T-05-15).
2. Kinetic/Reconnaissance: Execute deep UAS reconnaissance along primary reserve movement corridors (Kirovohrad axis) to provide real-time targeting for follow-on missile/KAB strikes.
3. Information: Low-level strategic noise (Bulgaria/Lukoil) maintains the illusion of diplomatic normalcy while kinetic operations commence.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The rapid shift of multiple UAS groups (Nikopol -> Kirovohrad) indicates RF operational commanders are prioritizing the interdiction and destruction of UAF reserves over basic infrastructure strikes in the deep rear. This suggests high confidence that Reserve Force Bravo (or a substitute) has either been ordered to move or RF anticipates its movement imminently.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Sustained long-range UAS activity confirms RF logistics can support simultaneous, deep, high-tempo reconnaissance and strike planning across multiple axes.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF C2 is performing highly effectively, transitioning seamlessly from the IO phase (C2 paralysis) to the kinetic exploitation phase (force interdiction). The synchronization of UAS routes with the T-05-15 GLOC timeline is a key indicator of effective, centralized RF command execution.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: The deep rear (Kirovohrad, Dnipropetrovsk) must immediately shift from routine AD posture to High Alert for Operational Interdiction. The movement of large operational units is now compromised without heavy mobile AD/EW coverage. READINESS: Forward defensive forces are at maximum kinetic readiness but face a major deficiency in operational depth.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

CRITICAL SETBACK (Operational): The decision paralysis (DP-1 failure) is now incurring direct kinetic risk. Any attempt to move Reserve Force Bravo into the observed UAS corridors risks catastrophic losses due to interdiction fire based on real-time RF reconnaissance.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

PRIORITY REQUIREMENT: Immediate reallocation of Mobile SHORAD and Electronic Warfare (EW) assets to protect the internal GLOCs linking Dnipropetrovsk to Kirovohrad/Western Support Hubs. CONSTRAINT: Mobile AD assets are now overstretched, having to simultaneously protect the immediate frontline, fixed C2 nodes (MDCOA), and the newly targeted reserve movement corridors.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The primary disinformation campaign (peace leaks) is assessed as having achieved its operational goal (C2 paralysis) and is now passive. RF state media is now focused on standard diplomatic signaling (Bulgaria/Lukoil, 23:24Z), which is designed to project strength and international engagement rather than tactical deception.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The lack of an explicit, high-level NCA counter-IO statement (DP-2 failure) continues to degrade the moral component of combat power, particularly regarding mobilization and reserve readiness, which RF is now exploiting kinetically.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Minimal impact in the immediate 15-minute window. Focus must be entirely on combat preparation.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Course of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF mechanized forces (40th/155th OMBR) will initiate the primary assault on the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis NLT 260000Z. This will be accompanied by heavy KAB strikes and frontline drone usage to suppress immediate UAF fire response. The goal remains rapid seizure of the T-05-15 GLOC.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Course of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The MDCOA is actively transitioning from preparation to execution. RF will use the UAS data collected over the Kirovohrad/Dnipropetrovsk corridor (NLT 0030Z) to launch precision strikes (Iskander/Kinzhals) targeting:

1. Reserve Assembly Areas/Movement Columns: If Reserve Force Bravo is committed.
2. Backup C2 Nodes: Targeting Poltava/Vinnytsia/Kirovohrad nodes to achieve operational decapitation, ensuring the ground assault faces only decentralized UAF resistance.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

R-1: FORCE PROTECTION AND AIR DEFENSE (AD Command/J3)

1. PRIORITIZE KRIYVYI RIH/KIROVOHRAD CORRIDOR (IMMEDIATE): All available mobile SHORAD assets (NASAMS, Gepard) must be surged immediately to establish a protected corridor on the Dnipropetrovsk-Kirovohrad axis. This is mandatory for protecting potential reserve movement or C2 nodes.
2. IMPLEMENT EW DENIAL: Activate maximum power EW jamming along the confirmed UAS routes (Kirovohrad vector) to disrupt RF targeting and force reliance on less accurate pre-planned fires.

R-2: RESERVE FORCE MOVEMENT (J3/OPERATIONAL COMMANDS)

1. COMMIT RESERVE FORCE BRAVO: Despite the confirmed kinetic risk, the operational necessity at Pokrovsk demands movement. The J3 must order movement initiation NLT 2350Z.
2. DECENTRALIZED MOVEMENT: Instead of large columns, Reserve Force Bravo must move using dispersed, rapid-movement tactics along multiple secondary routes, relying on speed and EW cover rather than full AD protection, which is currently unavailable.

R-3: FRONTLINE ENGAGEMENT (EASTERN COMMAND)

1. FIRE DISCIPLINE: Commanders must anticipate aggressive RF psychological warfare accompanying the assault (e.g., claiming major breakthroughs/captures). Maintain strict fire discipline and only commit counter-attacks based on confirmed IMINT/SIGINT, not enemy media claims.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS