Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - OPERATIONAL LEVEL

TIME: 251645Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER / POKROVSK AXIS DEFENSE (OPERATION IRON SHIELD)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

FACT (HIGH CONFIDENCE): The Russian Federation (RF) Main Effort (ME) remains fixed on penetrating the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka axis along the T-05-15 GLOC. RF is actively expanding its deep-strike kinetic shaping operations to interdict projected Reserve Force Bravo movement corridors and critical backup Command and Control (C2) nodes.

NEW KINETIC VECTORS (FACT/HIGH CONFIDENCE):

• C2 Threat Vector: Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) detected from Sumy Oblast heading toward Poltava (25163138Z). This places the backup C2 node directly under terminal guidance threat, directly supporting the Most Dangerous Course of Action (MDCOA).
• Reserve Threat Vector: UAS detected from Dnipropetrovsk heading toward Kirovohrad (Oleksandriia district) (25161847Z). This vector threatens logistics and movement security for Reserve Force Bravo along the southern routes.
• Fixation Vector: UAS detected in Bohodukhiv district, Kharkiv, and further tracks toward Kharkiv city (25161707Z, 25163946Z), confirming continued RF intent to fix northern Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) reserves.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, dry conditions persist. Electrical grid instability continues (25162026Z reports widespread load shedding), which compounds C2 and logistics challenges post-massed strike.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces maintain local defensive integrity. Strategic control is challenged by severe cognitive paralysis at the National Command Authority (NCA) level due to the peak intensity of RF Information Operations (IO). The critical 251700Z deadline for C2 protection verification and decisive counter-IO is now imminent.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (CRITICAL/HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF intent is to achieve simultaneous kinetic interdiction of UAF strategic reserves and command disruption, timed precisely to precede the ground assault NLT 260000Z. The IO is no longer solely a diversion; it is the pre-assault softening fire in the cognitive domain. CAPABILITY (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF demonstrates confirmed multi-domain synchronization. UAS reconnaissance and deep strike preparation (Poltava/Kirovohrad vectors) are coordinated with the strategic IO campaign which is successfully sowing confusion and strategic indecision.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The IO campaign has escalated to include specific, fabricated claims attributed to senior Ukrainian officials (Yermak, citing Axios/RBC-Ukraine) regarding an imminent meeting with Donald Trump on 27 November to "finalize a peace agreement" (25162157Z, 25162235Z). ANALYTICAL JUDGMENT: This is the culmination point of the IO. The specific date (27 Nov, US Thanksgiving) and the alleged high-level commitment aim to convince frontline units and political leadership that the war is strategically over, preventing any movement of Reserve Force Bravo NLT 252000Z.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF is allocating high-value UAS assets to deep targeting (Poltava/Kirovohrad), confirming the immediate priority is achieving operational success on the Pokrovsk axis rather than long-term sustainment concerns.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 effectiveness is MAXIMUM. The precise timing of UAS probes against C2 targets (Poltava) indicates a centralized and deliberate exploitation of the strategic paralysis created by the parallel IO campaign.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive units are tactically ready. However, the internal cohesion is degrading due to the IO impact, amplified by defeatist narratives entering the public domain (MP Kostenko, 25162300Z). READINESS ASSESSMENT: High for localized defense; CRITICALLY LOW for strategic maneuver. The failure to commit reserves NLT 252000Z directly compromises the defensive posture on the T-05-15 GLOC.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS: Ukrainian media has published accurate counter-narratives denying the troop cap (25161957Z), providing ammunition for a formal NCA response. CRITICAL SETBACK (URGENT): The window for the decisive NCA Counter-IO statement is now essentially closed (Initial deadline 251600Z, revised deadline 251700Z). The prolonged silence risks validating RF narratives, leading to potentially fatal delays in reserve mobilization.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate confirmation of physical SHORAD assets covering backup C2 nodes (Poltava, Vinnytsia) to mitigate the confirmed threat vector (UAS toward Poltava). The risk of command decapitation has increased from HIGH to EXTREME within the next 90 minutes.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

PEAK INTENSITY (HIGH CONFIDENCE): RF IO is driving a narrative of inevitable, imminent capitulation (Zelensky-Trump signing event 27 Nov). This narrative is specifically designed to undermine morale, discourage mobilization, and ensure strategic passivity NLT 252000Z. BELIEF UPDATE: Dempster-Shafer analysis confirms high belief in energy disruption (0.379) and significant, rising belief in the "Zelensky meeting Trump" diplomatic initiative (0.028), illustrating the successful diversion of strategic focus.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Internal political discord is being instantly weaponized (Kostenko MP pessimism amplified by pro-RF channels, 25163317Z). The public is cycling between shock from the kinetic strikes (Kyiv casualties, 25161904Z) and strategic confusion from the overwhelming diplomatic IO.

4.3. Intelligence Gaps and Collection Requirements

INTELLIGENCE GAP 1 (CRITICAL): Status of SHORAD deployment to Poltava C2 node. COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: Immediate visual/SIGINT confirmation of AD posture in the Poltava/Vinnytsia area.

INTELLIGENCE GAP 2: Confirmation of RF intent for Kirovohrad UAS track. COLLECTION REQUIREMENT: Task ELINT/IMINT to determine if the Kirovohrad vector is purely ISR or a strike package precursor targeting logistical chokepoints.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 95%): Execution of Penetration and Reserve Interdiction. RF will proceed with the Pokrovsk mechanized assault NLT 260000Z. The 251630Z - 252000Z window will be dedicated to eliminating strategic reserve movement capability. TIMELINE UPDATE: Expect the confirmed UAS tracks (Poltava, Kirovohrad) to culminate in preparatory precision strikes against C2 and logistical hubs NLT 251830Z to maximize chaos prior to the 252000Z reserve movement window.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(EXTREME CONFIDENCE - 90%): C2 Decapitation coinciding with Reserve Deployment. The UAS track toward Poltava strongly indicates the MDCOA is currently being executed. RF launches Iskander/KN-23 precision strike targeting Poltava/Vinnytsia backup C2 nodes NLT 251730Z. Failure to confirm SHORAD protection by 251700Z will result in catastrophic command loss simultaneous with the critical reserve deployment phase, leading to operational defeat on the Pokrovsk axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL UPDATE)

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

TO: NCA / J7 (STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS) – 15 MINUTE WINDOW

1. EXECUTE IMMEDIATE COUNTER-IO BROADCAST (CRITICAL PRIORITY): The NCA must issue the joint rejection statement IMMEDIATELY. Frame the RF diplomatic IO campaign (27 Nov meeting, 800k limit) as direct strategic deception for the 260000Z Pokrovsk ground assault. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

TO: J3 (OPERATIONS) / AD COMMAND

2. C2 AD PROTECTION (CRITICAL IMMEDIATE ACTION): J3 must confirm the operational status and location of SHORAD assets protecting Poltava/Vinnytsia NLT 251700Z. If AD coverage is not confirmed, initiate immediate electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures (active jamming/decoys) and relocate the necessary mobile AD assets to the Poltava C2 perimeter within the hour. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. RESERVE MOVEMENT AUTHORIZATION: Authorize the immediate, dispersed movement of Reserve Force Bravo NLT 252000Z, prioritizing EW and SHORAD coverage along the Kirovohrad vector, irrespective of IO-induced political friction. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

TO: J2 (INTELLIGENCE)

4. DEEP STRIKE WARNING (POLTAVA): Disseminate High Alert warning to all personnel at Poltava C2 node, initiating dispersal and subterranean protection procedures immediately. The UAS track indicates a terminal guidance preparation. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
5. ISR RE-TASKING: Prioritize low-altitude ELINT/SIGINT collection on the Poltava UAS vector to identify potential RF strike platform launch signatures. Task airborne assets to confirm the intent of the Kirovohrad UAS. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

//END OF REPORT//