Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 251115Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER / POKROVSK AXIS COLLAPSE AND STRATEGIC DAMAGE CONTROL REFERENCE: Previous ISR 251045Z NOV 25; Daily Intel Summary 241530Z NOV 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational center of gravity remains the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka defense line, now facing maximum kinetic pressure.

• Ivanopillya (FACT/VIDEO CONFIRMATION): RF sources (TASS, Kotsnews) have released video evidence claiming the capture and "liberation" of Ivanopillya. This operational advance confirms the immediate tactical threat to the southwestern flank of Kostiantynivka. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Pokrovsk GLOCs (CRITICAL): The timeline for operational collapse of the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad remains critical, expected NLT 251200Z. RF fire density is unrelenting.
• Strategic Deep Strike (BDA UPDATE): Confirmed civilian casualties in Kyiv resulting from the massive strategic strike: 7 fatalities and 20 wounded reported by Kyiv Mayor Klychko. This confirms the lethality and intended psychological impact of the Kinzhal strike.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear sky conditions persist across the FEBA, continuing to enable RF mass employment of KABs (Glide Bombs). Conditions were highly favorable for the execution and coordination of the strategic ballistic and cruise missile strikes against deep targets.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Forces (RED): RF is consolidating gains at Ivanopillya and maintaining high-volume kinetic interdiction fires to prevent UAF C2 from stabilizing the situation. Drone activity observed in Zaporizhzhia indicates continued fixation efforts on the southern flank.
• UAF Forces (BLUE): UAF forces are concurrently conducting defensive combat operations (DCO) in Donetsk and managing strategic damage assessment (BDA) across the country. The focus shifts to immediate contingency withdrawal protocols given the looming deadline for Plan 7-B MOD status.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE - T+4 hours): RF intends to leverage the systemic shock caused by the strategic strike (casualty counts, energy disruption BDA pending) to finalize the operational encirclement of Pokrovsk and force a full-scale UAF withdrawal from the northern Donetsk bulge. CAPABILITY: Demonstrated high-level synchronization of strategic precision strikes (Kinzhal) with rapid tactical ground exploitation (Ivanopillya).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The rapid deployment of RF propaganda validating the Ivanopillya capture (video/TASS) suggests RF is attempting to use the speed of their advance to induce decision paralysis within UAF High Command. The continued use of UAVs to probe Zaporizhzhia confirms the fixation role of the Southern Axis.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (UPDATE)

• RF Logistics (Setback Confirmed): UAF counter-action is confirmed successful. RF sources (TASS, War Correspondents) verify that UAF drone strikes damaged buildings at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal in Novorossiysk. This strike validates the effectiveness of UAF long-range targeting and will negatively impact RF fuel and logistics flows into the Southern Theater in the T+48 to T+96 hour timeframe. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• UAF Logistics (CRITICAL VULNERABILITY): The rising casualty count in Kyiv and the lack of Plan 7-B MOD confirmation places immense strain on UAF resource allocation and tactical decisions.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust, demonstrated by the simultaneous coordination of diplomatic maneuvers (Lavrov), strategic deep strikes, and ground force breakthroughs. Dempster-Shafer analysis supports high belief in RF success at disrupting UAF communication networks in frontline sectors (0.084342).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Posture is defensive and highly stressed. There are localized reports of effective tactical defense (81st OAeMBr drone kills on the Siversky direction), but the overall operational picture is critical due to the Donetsk collapse timeline.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (UPDATE)

• SUCCESS (OPERATIONAL COUNTER): Successful strike on the Novorossiysk CPC terminal, confirming UAF ability to impose high costs on critical RF strategic infrastructure.
• SETBACK (TACTICAL/STRATEGIC): Confirmed RF occupation of Ivanopillya. Confirmed Strategic Strike BDA (7 KIA, 20 WIA in Kyiv).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

IMMINENT CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The 251130Z deadline for Plan 7-B MOD is now minutes away. Failure to confirm its status means UAF must immediately default to the contingency plan assuming zero available reinforcements for the Pokrovsk sector.

C2 RESILIENCE: President Zelensky’s signing of a law on rapid mobile internet suggests proactive measures to enhance telecommunications and C2 resilience against further RF targeting.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Information Operations (IO) are aggressively attempting to decouple kinetic escalation from diplomatic overtures:

1. Peace Framing: Lavrov continues to promote the "Trump peace plan," confirming receipt via "unofficial channels" and willingness to discuss formulations, serving to shift global attention from the Kinzhal strike aftermath to a negotiation framework.
2. Strike Justification: RF channels are celebrating the strategic strike as "Black Monday," framing it as a successful, justified military action against 'the regime.'
3. Allied Discord: RF reports (TASS/WSJ sources) highlight anger from EU officials directed at US diplomatic efforts (Rubio), seeking to sow transatlantic distrust.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment in Kyiv is characterized by shock and grief following the rising casualty count. UAF IO must immediately pivot the narrative to focus on resilience, international solidarity (Starmer call), and the successful counter-strike against Novorossiysk to offset the narrative of vulnerability.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• UK Support: President Zelensky’s immediate, productive conversation with UK PM Starmer ensures ongoing high-level coordination and mitigates RF attempts to isolate Ukraine following the deep strike.
• Moldova Incident: RF Ambassador summoned by the Moldovan MFA regarding the confirmed violation of airspace by unknown UAVs. This action increases international pressure on RF hybrid operations.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 95%): GLOC Severance and Withdrawal Interdiction NLT 251600Z. RF will commit maximum artillery, KAB, and ground assets to interdict the remaining withdrawal corridors (T-05-15 and secondary routes). The immediate focus will be neutralizing any organized withdrawal from Pokrovsk by 1200Z, followed by establishing fire control over the newly exposed Kostiantynivka flank from Ivanopillya.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 85%): Kostiantynivka Operational Breakthrough via Ivanopillya. If UAF forces are compelled to execute a rapid, uncoordinated withdrawal from Pokrovsk due to lack of Plan 7-B MOD, RF will exploit the resulting gap. The 155th/40th OMBR elements will pivot from Ivanopillya towards the main M-30 highway corridor west of Kostiantynivka, aiming to achieve a localized operational breakthrough that destabilizes the entire western Donetsk line.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (REVISED)

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

TO: J3 (OPERATIONS) / GROUND FORCES COMMAND

1. Pokrovsk Contingency Activation (IMMEDIATE): At 251130Z, execute contingency withdrawal protocols for all non-essential combat and support units from the Pokrovsk sector. Designate priority assets for rapid movement along secondary corridors, using Electronic Warfare (EW) coverage to mitigate RF ISR cuing.
2. Kostiantynivka Deployment (PRIORITY): Immediately commit the best-available mechanized and fire support reserves to fortify the Southwestern approaches to Kostiantynivka (facing Ivanopillya). Mission is to deny RF a rapid operational breakthrough.
3. Novorossiysk BDA Leverage: Ensure tactical commanders understand the confirmed success of the Novorossiysk strike. Use this information (J7 coordination required) to reinforce morale and justify continued defensive attrition.

TO: J2 (INTELLIGENCE) / J6 (COMMUNICATIONS)

4. Strategic BDA Prioritization (GAP 8B): Reallocate all available IMINT and specialized BDA teams to assess the status of key energy and defense industrial targets (Kinzhals). Focus on quantifying megawatt capacity loss and ammunition production viability.
5. C2 Resilience Confirmation (NEW GAP 10C): Analyze the implementation timeline and effectiveness of the new mobile internet law signed by Zelensky to predict C2 survivability under renewed RF pressure.
6. Moldova Incident Package: Provide detailed geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) on the UAV trajectory/origin to the MFA/NATO liaison to support the formal diplomatic action taken by Moldova.

TO: J7 (INFORMATION OPERATIONS) / NCA

7. Counter-IO Synchronization: Immediately synchronize the global narrative: Link the successful Novorossiysk counter-strike, the rising Kyiv casualty count, and the Kinzhal attack directly to Lavrov's 'peace plan' overtures. Frame RF diplomacy as a cover for maximizing civilian terror and operational gains.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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