Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR)

TIME: 251045Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER / POKROVSK CRISIS AND STRATEGIC DAMAGE ASSESSMENT REFERENCE: Previous ISR 251030Z NOV 25; Daily Intel Summary 241530Z NOV 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces have achieved tactical success on the northern flank of the Kostiantynivka defense perimeter, significantly accelerating the timeline for operational collapse in the Pokrovsk sector.

• Ivanopillya (FACT/CLAIM): Multiple synchronized RF sources (MoD Russia, Colonelcassad) claim the liberation/capture of Ivanopillya. If confirmed, this shifts the immediate RF vector toward flanking Kostiantynivka from the south and west, forcing UAF to divert resources from the critical Pokrovsk GLOC defense (Rodynske/Myrnohrad). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH - Based on source synchronization)
• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): The assault on UAF GLOCs feeding Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad continues under maximum kinetic pressure. The previous estimate for GLOC operational collapse (NLT 251200Z) remains valid due to unrelenting RF fire density. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Strategic Deep Strike (FACT): RF confirmed executing a massive strike using Kinzhal hypersonic missiles and long-range precision weapons against Ukrainian defense industry and energy infrastructure, directly fulfilling the previously identified MDCOA. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear sky conditions persist across the FEBA, enabling the continued mass employment of RF KABs (Glide Bombs) in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia sectors. The confirmed use of Kinzhals indicates highly favorable conditions for strategic targeting and launch synchronization.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Forces (RED): RF is successfully executing synchronized multi-domain pressure: Ground Exploitation (Pokrovsk/Ivanopillya), Fixation (Huliaipole), and Strategic Paralysis (Kinzhal deep strike). Force density remains high in the Donetsk region.
• UAF Forces (BLUE): UAF priority is immediate damage assessment of the strategic strike and maintaining cohesion in the Pokrovsk defensive line until the status of Plan 7-B MOD is resolved. Air Defense assets are recovering from the massive strike volume.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (IMMEDIATE): RF intends to consolidate the Ivanopillya gain, apply maximum pressure to sever the Pokrovsk GLOCs, and exploit the functional C2/logistical paralysis resulting from the Kinzhal strike targeting defense industry and energy hubs.

CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT (Kinzhal/Ballistic): RF demonstrates operational capability to coordinate massive, high-speed, multi-platform strikes. The use of Kinzhal missiles validates the prior assessment of extreme threat level targeting strategic national assets.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (JUDGMENT)

The claimed capture of Ivanopillya signifies a rapid and effective adaptation of RF maneuver forces. This allows them to bypass direct urban combat and instead apply flanking pressure against Kostiantynivka, prioritizing operational over tactical gains. The use of UAVs to violate Moldovan airspace during the strike sequence indicates an ongoing commitment to hybrid/escalatory tactics to test international reaction and overload C2 systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (JUDGMENT)

While the UAF Novorossiysk strike will impact RF southern theater logistics in the mid-term (T+72 hours), RF ground forces appear adequately supplied for the current intense offensive operations in Donetsk. The critical factor is now the damage assessment (BDA) of the UAF defense industry/energy infrastructure, which will heavily impact UAF sustainment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (JUDGMENT)

RF C2 is highly effective and integrated across kinetic and information domains. The coordinated effort involving the Ivanopillya push, the Kinzhal strike, and the simultaneous global diplomatic IO by Lavrov demonstrates robust, centralized control. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are in a critically stressed posture, simultaneously managing the tactical crisis in Donetsk and the strategic damage from the deep strike. The 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment combat medic interview (DShV) suggests high morale within specific fighting units, which must be leveraged to sustain the defense.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SUCCESS (TACTICAL): Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine claim high RF attrition (approx. 300 personnel killed). (Needs confirmation via BDA).
• SETBACK (TACTICAL/OPERATIONAL): Confirmed RF advance and liberation claim of Ivanopillya. Successful RF strategic strike using Kinzhals on critical national infrastructure.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Plan 7-B MOD (GAP 1C). The deadline for locating and confirming the viability of this force is 251130Z. Every operational decision regarding Pokrovsk after this time must proceed on the assumption of ZERO reinforcement capacity.

NEW CONSTRAINT: C2 and Energy Resilience. Need immediate assessment of power grid stability and defense industrial capacity loss due to the confirmed Kinzhal strikes.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO remains focused on diplomatic framing while executing kinetic escalation.

• Peace Maneuvering: Lavrov publicly confirmed possession of a 28-point Trump peace plan and proposed Belarus/Turkey mediation, aiming to seize diplomatic initiative and create the perception of RF 'reasonableness' despite the Kinzhal strikes.
• Deflection/Disinformation: RF channels are actively attempting to discredit the proven violation of Moldovan airspace by claiming planted drones, a standard tactic to sow doubt about international incidents.
• Western Discord: RF IO (SVR claim, Bild/TASS reports) emphasizes that US/UK domestic political disagreements (Trump vs. White House) are manipulating the Ukraine conflict, aiming to undermine allied unity.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment will be tested by the scale and precision of the Kinzhal strike, potentially leading to increased anxiety regarding national security. The violation of Moldova's airspace provides a key IO opportunity for UAF to galvanize international outrage.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The RF diplomatic offensive (Lavrov) is designed to coincide with military success, attempting to set the narrative that peace is possible only after RF achieves its immediate military objectives. French reconnaissance activity over the Black Sea suggests high NATO awareness and concern regarding the latest escalation (Macron's troop deployment discussions).

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 95%): Pokrovsk Operational Encirclement and GLOC Severance NLT 251600Z. RF ground forces, emboldened by the Ivanopillya capture, will intensify efforts to interdict the remaining GLOCs (M-30/T-05-15) and establish kinetic control over the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area. The Huliaipole fixation will be maintained to prevent UAF redeployment of Southern reserves, forcing the UAF General Staff to make the critical decision on Pokrovsk evacuation/defense without tactical relief.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 85%): Tactical Exploitation of Strategic Damage (Kostiantynivka Breakthrough) NLT 260600Z. Assuming successful disruption of UAF C2 and power supply from the Kinzhal strike, RF forces will attempt to rapidly exploit the resultant chaos. The primary vector for this exploitation will be a combined arms push from the newly acquired Ivanopillya position directly toward Kostiantynivka to achieve a localized operational breakthrough and finalize the collapse of the northern Donetsk defense line.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

TO: J3 (OPERATIONS) / GROUND FORCES COMMAND

1. Pokrovsk Withdrawal Contingency (CRITICAL): At 251130Z, if Plan 7-B MOD status is unknown, activate pre-planned withdrawal sequencing for units north of Myrnohrad. Direct remaining assets to establish fire control over the T-05-15 to maximize extraction duration.
2. Kostiantynivka Defense Establishment (IMMEDIATE): Divert available reserves (non-Pokrovsk committed) to reinforce the defensive line immediately west and south of Kostiantynivka, prioritizing anti-tank and artillery assets to counter the expected RF breakthrough push from Ivanopillya.
3. Huliaipole Prioritization (CRITICAL): Do not commit forces to counter-attack at Huliaipole until the Pokrovsk withdrawal status is finalized. Huliaipole remains a fixation operation intended to drain resources from the primary Donetsk effort.

TO: J2 (INTELLIGENCE) / J6 (COMMUNICATIONS)

4. Kinzhal BDA (PRIORITY 1 COLLECTION): Initiate immediate, high-priority IMINT/OSINT/SIGINT sweep of confirmed Kinzhal target zones (Defense Industry/Energy Hubs). Quantify functional power generation loss and impact on ammunition/production cycles. (New GAP 8B)
5. Plan 7-B MOD Sweep (FINAL ATTEMPT): Utilize all available loitering munitions and SSO reconnaissance teams for a final, high-risk sweep of the Rodynske-Myrnohrad secondary corridors before the 251130Z deadline.
6. Moldova Incident Leverage: Provide immediate intelligence confirmation of the UAV trajectory and origin to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) to support a coordinated international diplomatic response against the RF escalation.

TO: J7 (INFORMATION OPERATIONS) / NCA

7. Diplomatic Counter-Escalation: J7 must immediately link the Lavrov 'peace' narrative (28-point plan, mediation) directly to the confirmed, devastating Kinzhal strike on civilian and defense infrastructure. Frame RF diplomacy as a cynical attempt to gain time and cover war crimes.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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