Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) - TERMINAL ALERT: 02

TIME: 250415Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER / TERMINAL INTERDICTION PHASE REFERENCE: Previous ISR 250345Z NOV 25

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The operational picture is entering the terminal phase of the predicted coordinated strike (Ballistic/Drone/Ground).

• Pokrovsk Axis / Reinforcement Corridor: The kinetic threat to the Plan 7-B MOD GLOC remains critical. The threatened operational breach near Uspenovka (Zaporizhzhia) requires immediate verification of stabilization forces.
• Air Defense Saturation Zone (Kyiv/Odesa): Enemy AD saturation efforts are sustained and converging. Multiple Shahed UAVs are confirmed inbound toward Brovary/Kyiv from the North (0410Z), and a separate wave is targeting Odesa (0404Z). This confirms the sustained effort to fix and deplete strategic AD assets ahead of the ballistic strike.
• RF Rear Targets: UAF deep strikes have successfully imposed costs. Confirmed civilian casualties in Rostov Oblast (0347Z) and reports of widespread energy outages (770k without power, 0407Z) confirm infrastructure disruption in the RF rear.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Low visibility favors ongoing nocturnal UAV operations and potential ballistic flight trajectory masking.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Forces (RED): RF is executing the final stages of the strategic strike package. Confirmed deployment of heavy-lift tactical UAVs for forward resupply to the Vostok Grouping (0401Z) suggests RF intends to sustain high tactical momentum on the ground despite UAF deep strikes.
• UAF Forces (BLUE): UAF deep strike capability is validated, imposing strategic costs. AD assets are strained by the continued requirement to defend the capital and key port cities simultaneously, while conserving strategic interceptors for the imminent ballistic threat.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (CRITICAL): Execute the strategic ballistic strike NLT 0430Z to achieve C2 paralysis, exploiting the current AD prioritization dilemma (drones vs. ballistic).

CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT (UPDATED):

• Ballistic Strike: Capability confirmed and imminent. The continued drone waves over high-value political targets (Kyiv) are intended to force AD expenditure. (HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Logistical Adaptation (NEW): RF has deployed heavy-lift hexacopters ("Mangas") to deliver ammunition and supplies to assault troops of the Vostok Grouping (0401Z). This capability increases the ground unit's tactical persistence and mitigates short-term logistical risks posed by UAF deep strikes. (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)
• Ground Maneuver: RF IO claims success against UAF tanks in Dnipropetrovsk region (0405Z), suggesting continued reconnaissance-in-force or localized assaults near the critical axis supporting Pokrovsk.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The shift of drone saturation to multiple strategic targets (Kyiv/Brovary, Odesa) simultaneously forces the NCA to make rapid, high-stakes decisions regarding interceptor commitment. This is the optimal tactical prelude for the predicted ballistic salvo.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

UAF deep strikes have inflicted measurable damage, confirmed by reports of energy outages affecting RF civilians (TASS, 0407Z). However, RF is demonstrating tactical resilience by immediately introducing advanced aerial logistics (heavy-lift UAVs) to sustain forward momentum in critical ground sectors (Vostok Grouping).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains focused on execution of the strike package. RF media (TASS) and official reports (Governor) are engaged in defensive IO regarding the UAF strikes, indicating temporary disruption, but not paralysis, of RF strategic command.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

Readiness is high but highly pressurized. AD units are confirmed engaging low-cost UAVs near the capital, risking strategic asset depletion. The operational focus remains fixed on the Pokrovsk axis defense.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SUCCESS: Confirmed kinetic and psychological pressure imposed on the RF rear (Rostov casualties, widespread energy outages). This demonstrates retaliatory capacity.
• CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY: The status of the QRF deployment to the Uspenovka flank (Zaporizhzhia) is unknown, posing the highest immediate kinetic threat to the Plan 7-B MOD GLOC.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Maintenance of the strategic AD reserve (Patriot/SAMP-T) for the NLT 0430Z ballistic window is non-negotiable.
• CONSTRAINT: The political pressure to defend Kyiv must be managed strictly using SHORAD/mobile fire groups only, due to the high probability of the impending ballistic strike.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (Updated)

RF IO is actively working to justify the imminent ballistic escalation by characterizing the UAF deep strikes (Krasnodar/Rostov) as "terrorist attacks" on civilian infrastructure (TASS, 0407Z). This framing is designed to preemptively mitigate international backlash against the strategic missile strike.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF morale is temporarily buoyed by the confirmed deep strike successes. However, the sustained nocturnal drone saturation (Kyiv, Odesa) aims to erode this morale and force citizens to remain focused on immediate personal safety.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

STRATCOM must immediately link the RF claims of UAF "civilian attacks" directly to the operational preparation for the ballistic strike NLT 0430Z. This preemptive counter-IO effort is necessary to secure continued Western commitment against RF escalation.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 95%): Strategic Strike Execution and Ground Fixation. RF will complete the AD saturation phase.

1. Ballistic Launch: Strategic ballistic missiles (Iskander/KN-23 variants) will be launched NLT 250430Z, targeting C2 and logistics nodes supporting the Pokrovsk axis (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia hubs).
2. Ground Fixation: The Vostok Grouping, supported by the newly deployed heavy-lift UAV logistics, will intensify interdiction fires and localized assaults against the Uspenovka GLOC area, attempting to destroy or pin down Plan 7-B MOD elements.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 80%): Simultaneous C2 Decapitation and Operational Breakthrough. The drone saturation successfully depletes or fixes strategic AD assets (Patriot/SAMP-T). The ballistic strike achieves a kinetic kill on the primary J-FIRE coordination center and the secondary NCA C2 node. This C2 failure prevents effective coordination of the Plan 7-B MOD movement and paralyzes counter-battery/air defense response, enabling the Vostok Grouping to achieve an operational breakthrough along the main GLOC.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

TO: NCA / J3 (Operations) - CRITICAL

1. Uspenovka Status (IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION): J3 must urgently confirm the status and location of the QRF tasked to the Uspenovka flank. If the 0415Z deployment deadline was missed, authorize the next available stabilization force immediately, prioritizing the defense of the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC over other secondary objectives.
2. C2 Hardening Protocol: Re-confirm that primary C2 personnel in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia are utilizing hardened/subterranean backup nodes exclusively for the next 45 minutes, irrespective of threat level reporting.

TO: AIR FORCE / AD COMMAND

3. Strategic AD (MAINTAIN DISCIPLINE): Reiterate the WEAPONS HOLD directive for all strategic interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T). The inbound Kyiv/Odesa drone threat must be handled solely by SHORAD/Mobile Fire Groups. Strategic interceptors are reserved 100% for the confirmed ballistic threat NLT 0430Z.

TO: J2 (Intelligence) / ISR ASSETS

4. Vostok Grouping Analysis (NEW REQUIREMENT): Prioritize SIGINT/MASINT collection on the Vostok Grouping and the area of confirmed heavy-lift UAV employment (0401Z). Determine the specific forward location where this enhanced logistics capability is being utilized to predict the next RF tactical thrust.
5. Ballistic Threat Warning: Maintain maximum ELINT/MASINT focus on suspected launch areas. Provide launch confirmation and trajectory prediction within 60 seconds of signature acquisition.

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7. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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