Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME: 250135Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER OF WAR - STRATEGIC STRIKE RESPONSE PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS (PIRs): Location and Status of Plan 7-B MOD; Confirmation of Strategic Ballistic Launch trajectory/payload.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (IPB Step 1)

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

The kinetic phase is now consolidated along the Eastern and Southeastern axes. The Pokrovsk Operational Axis remains the main effort, supported by the critical logistics corridor required by Plan 7-B MOD. The immediate battlespace focus is shifting to the central command structure hubs (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia) where the imminent ballistic threat is centered.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Night operations continue to favor RF long-range precision strike and minimize the risk of UAF counter-air interception of launch platforms.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Forces (RED): RF drone saturation (Phase I) appears to be concluding in the Northern/Central sectors (Kyiv all-clear 250126Z). RF is now transitioning to Phase II: Ballistic Engagement Preparation. Launch assets are likely armed and in final firing positions, protected by extensive AA screens (confirmed by recent SAR data).
• UAF Forces (BLUE): Air Defense assets in Kyiv and Northern regions are clearing the airspace and should be preparing to reposition or reserve interceptors. The UAF deep strike on Krasnodar Krai (reported 250128Z) confirms UAF retention of long-range offensive initiative and kinetic capabilities in the RF deep rear.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (IPB Step 2)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION (UNCHANGED): Achieve operational paralysis by neutralizing C2 in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia, enabling the defeat of Plan 7-B MOD, and securing a breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis. CURRENT COA (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Terminal Strike Execution. RF has successfully executed the AD depletion phase in non-priority zones. All indicators point to the immediate launch of high-value ballistic missiles NLT 250230Z, targeting critical nodes confirmed by the converging UAV waves.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• AD Exhaustion Successful: The air raid cancellation in Kyiv suggests the northern drone wave either completed its mission (AD depletion) or was neutralized, allowing RF to commit the remaining strategic strike capacity entirely to the C2 hubs in the East/Southeast.
• Risk Tolerance: RF appears willing to proceed with the planned ballistic strike despite the UAF deep strike on Krasnodar, indicating the Pokrovsk/C2 neutralization mission is of paramount strategic priority and cannot be delayed.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain capable of sustaining the current strike tempo. The focus on high-value munitions (ballistic missiles, KABs) demonstrates targeted allocation of limited, precise resources.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective, demonstrating successful synchronization between IO efforts, sustained kinetic fixation (KABs), and the preparatory phase for the strategic ballistic salvo.

Confidence Assessment: HIGH regarding the imminent launch timing (within the next 60 minutes) and target selection (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia C2).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (IPB Step 3)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF readiness remains CRITICAL, but the all-clear in Kyiv provides a brief operational window to reallocate reserve interceptors or adjust missile defense coverage to the anticipated impact zone.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• SUCCESS (OPERATIONAL): UAF long-range strike on Krasnodar Krai confirms the ability to conduct deep penetration attacks, potentially degrading RF operational security, diverting RF AD resources, and demonstrating strategic retaliation capability.
• SUCCESS (TACTICAL): The clearing of the air threat in Kyiv indicates successful AD management or neutralization of the northern saturation wave.
• SETBACK (CRITICAL): The lack of status confirmation for Plan 7-B MOD remains the single largest operational risk.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: The status of Plan 7-B MOD is an INTELLIGENCE GAP 1 (CRITICAL). The force is now entering the period of maximum kinetic interdiction risk.
• REQUIREMENT: Immediate confirmation of reserve interceptor status (Patriot/SAMP-T) and readiness for the ballistic engagement window.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IPB Step 4)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF Information Operations (IO) immediately pivoted back to political distraction following the cessation of the air threat in Kyiv. The TASS report (250120Z) on Ukraine seeking European participation in US/Kyiv talks is a renewed attempt to inject a "peace framework" narrative, sustaining the cognitive paralysis threat aimed at Western capitals and UAF NCA.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The successful UAF strike on Krasnodar (reported RF casualties/damage) provides a significant morale boost, countering the anxiety generated by the saturated drone attacks and the sustained RF IO campaign. StratCom should immediately amplify the success of this counter-strike.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The strategic intent of RF IO remains to delay critical Western decisions. The convergence of kinetic strikes and diplomatic noise is timed for maximum political friction.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (IPB Step 5)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 95%): Execution of Strategic Ballistic Strike. RF will initiate the ballistic launch sequence (Iskander-M/KN-23) targeting C2 nodes and supporting infrastructure (e.g., electrical substations) in the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia regions NLT 250230Z. This will be followed by continued, targeted KAB strikes aimed at Plan 7-B MOD movement areas as ground truth is relayed by ISR/SpN assets.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - 65%): Operational Defeat and Tactical Encirclement. A successful ballistic strike degrades UAF C2 effectiveness by 75% or more. Simultaneously, RF KAB and artillery fire successfully interdicts the dispersed Plan 7-B MOD components, inflicting high attrition and forcing their retreat, leading to the collapse of the UAF defensive posture on the Pokrovsk Axis due to lack of reinforcement.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

TO: J3 (Operations) / NCA

1. C2 Redundancy Activation (IMMEDIATE/CRITICAL): Assume the MLCOA (Ballistic Strike) has a 95% chance of success against primary targets. CONFIRM ALL PRIMARY C2 PERSONNEL AND FUNCTIONS ARE TRANSITIONED TO HARDENED/MOBILE BACKUP NODES NOW. Impact is expected within the next 60 minutes.
2. Plan 7-B MOD Protocol (CRITICAL): Reinforce the mandate that the relief column remains in maximum tactical dispersal and continues using "NO COMM" PROTOCOLS. Tactical survival and EW suppression (Bukovel-AD) against RF ISR must be prioritized over scheduled movement.
3. Exploitation of Krasnodar Strike: Task J-FIRE to identify any newly created RF operational vulnerabilities (e.g., diverted AD, exposed logistics) resulting from the Krasnodar strike. Prepare follow-on deep strikes to sustain pressure.

TO: AIR FORCE / AD COMMAND 4. Air Defense Priority (IMMEDIATE SHIFT): With the threat cleared from Kyiv, reallocate any available Patriot/SAMP-T reserve assets or crews to maximize coverage density over the Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia C2 complexes and supporting electrical grid. This is the definitive target zone. 5. SHORAD Reallocation: Direct mobile SHORAD fire groups (Gepard, VAMPIRE) previously operating in the North/Center to stage for rapid deployment East to cover post-strike RF follow-on drone reconnaissance waves.

TO: J2 (Intelligence) / ISR ASSETS 6. Intelligence Gap Closure (CRITICAL): Reallocate ALL available real-time ISR (UAV/SIGINT) assets to confirm the status and precise location of Plan 7-B MOD. This intelligence must override all other collection requirements for the next 2 hours. 7. Payload and Trajectory Analysis: Dedicate immediate analysis resources to track and confirm the ballistic trajectory parameters upon launch notification to optimize intercept calculations and identify launch origin (to refine future counter-battery targeting).

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