Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME: 250130Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER OF WAR - STRATEGIC STRIKE RESPONSE PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS (PIRs): Location and Status of Plan 7-B MOD; Confirmation of Strategic Ballistic Launch trajectory/payload.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF kinetic efforts are focused on three concurrent axes:

1. Pokrovsk Operational Axis: Remains the center of gravity for UAF operational maneuver. RF forces continue to use KAB strikes (Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk) to fix UAF reserves and interdict the movement corridor of Plan 7-B MOD.
2. Central/Eastern Strike Axis (Kinetic Expansion): Confirmed KAB strikes now targeting Sumy (250051Z) and Donetsk (250103Z) regions, demonstrating RF intent to leverage air superiority across a broader front to degrade UAF logistics and C2 resilience.
3. C2 Targeting (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia): New UAV waves are converging on the Dnipropetrovsk region (250056Z), confirming the final stages of RF target identification and softening before the anticipated ballistic salvo.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No significant change reported. Night operations continue to favor RF long-range strike capabilities and drone saturation tactics.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Forces: RF is executing a sustained drone saturation phase (Phase I), using new UAV groups (Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia) to confirm coordinates for C2 and critical infrastructure targets in Dnipropetrovsk ahead of the high-value ballistic strike (Phase II).
• UAF Forces: Air Defense units successfully engaged naval-launched UAVs (250115Z). However, new groups entering key regions (Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad) indicate the saturation effort remains challenging. UAF forces in Kyiv are focused on immediate damage control (4 confirmed casualties in Dniprovskyi district).

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RED)

2.1. Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION: Achieve operational paralysis by crippling rear-area C2 (Dnipropetrovsk) and preventing the deployment of Plan 7-B MOD relief forces, thereby enabling a potential breakthrough on the Pokrovsk axis. CURRENT COA (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Sustained Saturation Preceding Ballistic Salvo. RF is extending the drone saturation window beyond previous estimates to maximize AD depletion and finalize precision targeting of C2 nodes in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia. The high-value ballistic strike (Iskander/KN-23) is imminent, likely coordinated to strike shortly after the UAVs clear the airspace (NLT 250230Z).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Geographic Expansion of KABs: The initiation of KAB strikes in Sumy and Donetsk suggests an operational shift from strictly interdicting Plan 7-B MOD to a broader strategy of fixing multiple UAF reserve groups and preventing lateral movement of reinforcements.
• Intelligence Cuing: The incoming UAV waves confirm RF priority on real-time target confirmation for high-value ballistic strikes, ensuring optimal engagement geometry.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF missile stocks are confirmed sufficient for the current phase. Information Operations (TASS, 250102Z) emphasizing the accelerated production of new armament is an IO effort designed to project long-term industrial superiority and erode the credibility of Western aid commitments.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective, coordinating simultaneous drone waves, KAB strikes, and preparing the ballistic launch. The UAV concentration on Dnipropetrovsk C2 is directly linked to the intelligence requirement of neutralizing the operational support for the Pokrovsk axis.

Confidence Assessment: HIGH regarding the immediate execution of Phase II (Ballistic Strike).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF AD assets are highly engaged, focusing on neutralizing drone waves while reserving critical long-range interceptors for the anticipated ballistic threat. Readiness level remains CRITICAL across Central and Eastern Operational Commands.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Confirmed engagement and neutralization of UAVs launched from the sea direction (250115Z).
• Setback: Confirmed civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Kyiv reinforce the operational difficulty of fully defending against saturated drone attacks.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• CRITICAL CONSTRAINT: Expenditure of SHORAD ammunition remains a concern.
• INTELLIGENCE GAP 1 (CRITICAL): Status of Plan 7-B MOD remains unknown. The relief force is now operating inside the confirmed RF kinetic fixation zone (KABs/ISR cuing).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IE)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF is employing a multi-layered IO approach:

1. Industrial Intimidation: TASS/Chemezov messaging promotes the rapid modernization and acceleration of RF defense production (250102Z), intended to instill strategic pessimism in Western capitals.
2. Psychological Targeting: The Colonelcassad release of alleged NPO Praktika worker lists (250103Z) is an attempt at OSINT collection combined with harassment/intimidation aimed at disrupting the UAF defense industrial base.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Confirmation of civilian casualties in Kyiv (Dniprovskyi) will temporarily heighten anxiety. StratCom efforts must immediately link the ongoing humanitarian impact of the strikes to the RF IO campaign, portraying the industrial claims as a cynical attempt to distract from war crimes.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The strategic IO convergence (peace framework/industrial claim) is designed to maximize foreign policy friction and potentially slow the next tranche of Western aid decisions during the period of maximum kinetic stress.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 90%): Final Saturation and Ballistic Strike on C2 Hubs. RF will sustain drone activity (specifically the waves converging on Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia) until NLT 250200Z. This will be immediately followed by the launch of a high-value ballistic salvo (Iskander-M/KN-23), targeting primary and secondary C2 nodes, electrical substations, and rail infrastructure supporting Plan 7-B MOD.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - 65%): Combined Fires Breakthrough. RF successfully executes the MLCOA, crippling the primary J-FIRE C2 capability. Simultaneously, RF Spetsnaz/ISR assets successfully fix the location of Plan 7-B MOD, enabling concentrated KAB strikes that inflict mass attrition and force the retreat or operational defeat of the relief column. This creates an unrecoverable operational gap on the Pokrovsk Axis.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

TO: J3 (Operations) / NCA

1. C2 Redundancy Activation (IMMEDIATE): Confirm primary C2 nodes in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia have transitioned to subterranean/mobile/hardened backup locations. Personnel must be relocated NOW, prior to impact, based on the high probability of success for the RF ballistic strike.
2. Plan 7-B MOD Execution (CRITICAL): Reiterate the mandate for the Plan 7-B MOD commander to operate under the "NO COMM" PROTOCOL. Maximum tactical dispersal and aggressive use of tactical Electronic Warfare (EW) (Bukovel-AD systems) must be maintained to neutralize RF ISR cuing and prevent follow-on KAB strikes. Survival and dispersion are the mission priority over maintaining a rigid GLOC route.
3. Forward Air Controller (FAC) Deployment: Deploy dedicated FAC teams equipped with secure satellite uplinks to the projected movement corridor of Plan 7-B MOD to provide immediate ground-based BDA and tactical re-routing authority independent of regional C2 nodes.

TO: AIR FORCE / AD COMMAND 4. Air Defense Priority Shift: Prioritize interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T) solely for tracks targeting C2 nodes and critical substations supporting the Eastern Theater. Given the incoming drone waves targeting Dnipropetrovsk, designate that region as PRIORITY ONE INTERCEPTION ZONE for the next 60 minutes. 5. KAB Counter-Strike Requirement: Prepare counter-battery/HIMARS strikes against potential RF fixed-wing staging areas or forward operating bases responsible for the expanded KAB launches (Sumy/Donetsk).

TO: J2 (Intelligence) / ISR ASSETS 6. Intelligence Gap Closure (CRITICAL): Reroute high-end ISR (SAR/SIGINT) exclusively to the Plan 7-B MOD movement corridor to confirm status (attrition/location). This is the single most critical intelligence gap affecting operational decisions. 7. Payload Confirmation: Utilize all post-impact BDA (BDA) assets to confirm the ballistic missile variant (Iskander-M vs. KN-23) to optimize future countermeasure deployment protocols.

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