Situation Report

INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (ISR) TIME: 250100Z NOV 2025 OPERATION: EASTERN THEATER OF WAR PRIORITY INTELLIGENCE REQUIREMENTS (PIRs): Confirmation of Strategic Ballistic Launch; Status of Plan 7-B MOD.

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

RF forces have successfully executed the predicted Air Defense (AD) saturation phase targeting Central Ukraine. Active kinetic operations are focused on two major axes:

1. Strategic Strike Axis (Kyiv/Central): Confirmed simultaneous drone strikes targeting critical infrastructure (Energy) and high-density civilian areas in Kyiv (Pechersk, Dniprovskyi) and Bila Tserkva. This effort is designed to overload AD systems and establish command paralysis.
2. Pokrovsk Operational Axis: RF ground force advance remains the primary conventional maneuver threat (D-S Belief: 0.58). The critical Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) for the Plan 7-B MOD relief force remains the center of gravity for RF interdiction efforts.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors

No significant change reported. Night operations are favoring RF fixed-wing/KAB operations (requiring radar guidance) and low-altitude drone saturation maneuvers.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

• RF Forces: RF is transitioning from the drone saturation phase to the expected ballistic/cruise missile phase, having met the NLT 240000Z strike timeline. New drone activity detected moving towards Odesa Oblast (Chornomorsk).
• UAF Forces: Air Defense assets are actively engaged, particularly mobile fire groups (SHORAD) around Kyiv. The high volume of successful penetrations resulting in damage to residential structures (Dniprovskyi, Pechersk) confirms the difficulty of the saturation defense.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (RED)

2.1. Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

INTENTION: Achieve immediate operational paralysis in the Pokrovsk theater by destroying C2 nodes in the supporting rear (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia) while simultaneously utilizing strategic drone strikes to degrade national energy infrastructure and spread terror. CURRENT COA (HIGH CONFIDENCE): Full execution of the anticipated combined air offensive.

• Phase I (Completed/Ongoing): Drone Saturation (Shahed/Geran) against soft targets and AD positions in Central Ukraine, confirmed by strikes in Kyiv/Bila Tserkva.
• Phase II (IMMINENT): Ballistic/Cruise Missile strike utilizing reserve high-value munitions (Iskander-M/KN-23) against hardened C2 nodes and key electrical substations (Confirmed by Minenergy reporting). The strike window is active (250000Z onwards).

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

No significant tactical shift in the immediate strike strategy, only successful execution. However, RF Information Operations (IO) have adapted to the kinetic phase by amplifying domestic UAF criticisms (M. Zhorin quote) to erode external and internal confidence during the time of maximum stress (Cognitive Paralysis Threat remains).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF missile and air asset stocks remain sufficient for the current high-intensity effort. UAF strike activity targeting RF rear areas (Novorossiysk drone attack, confirmed infrastructure damage and casualties) indicates a limited ability by UAF to create friction in RF logistics, but this likely does not impact the immediate strategic missile salvo.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective in coordinating the combined arms strike (drone saturation preceding strategic missile phase). Intelligence Gap 3 (BDA in Zaporizhzhia) needs to be addressed urgently to assess if previous KAB strikes have impacted UAF ability to coordinate fires against the anticipated RF ballistic launch targets.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

UAF forces are at high alert. Air Defense units responded to the drone saturation, likely adhering to the "Weapons Hold" protocol for strategic interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T) given the confirmed target profile (residential damage from drone/debris, not high-speed ballistic impacts). Readiness for the ballistic threat is critical.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

• Success: Successful UAF long-range strike on Novorossiysk inflicted damage (4 casualties, 3 buildings), demonstrating UAF ability to maintain operational depth in the Black Sea/RF rear.
• Setback: Confirmed civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Kyiv and Bila Tserkva, confirming RF success in penetrating initial AD layers.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

• Critical Requirement: Immediate need for real-time C2/ISR data on Plan 7-B MOD.
• Constraint: The successful RF drone saturation has forced the expenditure of expensive SHORAD ammunition, which constrains resources for sustained defense if the RF attack continues for multiple waves.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (IE)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF is actively utilizing the kinetic strike window to amplify narratives of imminent UAF defeat. The TASS report quoting a UAF commander lamenting the deteriorating front line (250028Z) is a direct psychological operation aimed at demoralizing troops at the operational level and weakening international resolve.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Attacks on residential high-rises in Kyiv will temporarily increase public anxiety and may strain trust in AD effectiveness. This kinetic-psychological impact aligns with RF objectives to create internal pressure on the National Command Authority (NCA).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The convergence of the renewed peace framework IO with the large-scale kinetic strike (as noted in the previous report) is designed to create a "bad faith" narrative for the West, suggesting that while RF offers diplomacy, Kyiv insists on escalation, potentially delaying critical aid decisions. The urgent Counter-IO recommendation remains relevant.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - 85%): Strategic Ballistic Follow-on Strike. The drone saturation has concluded, clearing the air for high-value strategic launches. Within the next 90 minutes (NLT 250230Z), RF will initiate the anticipated high-speed ballistic missile strike (Iskander/KN-23), primarily targeting the C2 nodes in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, synchronized with ongoing interdiction attempts against Plan 7-B MOD movement.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA)

(MEDIUM CONFIDENCE - 65%): Coordinated Operational Collapse. RF successfully uses KAB or Spetsnaz/ISR assets to achieve a hard stop or massive attrition of Plan 7-B MOD. Simultaneously, the ballistic strike successfully degrades the primary Joint Fires (J-FIRE) C2 capability in the rear, leaving Ukrainian forces holding the Pokrovsk line and the Plan 7-B reserves isolated, resulting in tactical encirclement.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

TO: J3 (Operations) / NCA

1. Immediate C2 Activation: Assume primary C2 nodes in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia are targeted. EXECUTE IMMEDIATE ACTIVATION of subterranean and mobile backup command centers now, prior to impact.
2. Plan 7-B MOD Autonomy (CRITICAL): Re-authorize and confirm the "NO COMM" PROTOCOL. If real-time C2 remains compromised or jammed, the relief force commander must proceed with maximum dispersion and tactical Electronic Warfare (EW) deployment (Bukovel-AD) to prevent RF ISR cuing of KABs. Survival is prioritized over rigid adherence to the original travel plan.

TO: AIR FORCE / AD COMMAND 3. Ballistic Interception (WEAPONS FREE): Immediately move Patriot/SAMP-T systems to WEAPONS FREE status against high-speed tracks confirmed to be targeting C2 or critical national energy infrastructure. Do not deplete high-value interceptors on secondary targets or follow-on drone waves. Utilize air patrols (MiG-29/Su-27) for confirmation and terminal defense of critical assets.

TO: J2 (Intelligence) / ISR ASSETS 4. Collection Priority Shift (CRITICAL): * PRIORITY 1 (7-B MOD): Reroute all available ISR assets (SIGINT, UAV, Human Intelligence) to confirm the location and status of Plan 7-B MOD (Immediate requirement). * PRIORITY 2 (Payload Confirmation): Utilize SATINT/HUMINT to confirm launch telemetry post-strike to definitively identify if the RF has used KN-23 variants for optimized countermeasure deployment in future strikes. * PRIORITY 3 (BDA/Targeting): Conduct immediate BDA of energy infrastructure strikes to determine if reserve power generation can be initiated without further compromise.

//END OF REPORT//