Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - STRATEGIC STRIKE INITIATION AND EXPANDED AD SATURATION

DTG: 242250Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 242230Z NOV 25 – 242250Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: CENTRAL AD DEFENSE / POKROVSK GLOC INTERDICTION / RF REAR KINETIC DOMAIN OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-5 (CRISIS EXECUTION: Strategic Missile Engagement Active)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The Russian Federation (RF) has initiated the strategic strike sequence, with confirmed launches of multiple cruise missiles (likely Caliber) from the Novorossiysk area. This kinetic climax is concurrent with the expansion of the UAV saturation campaign into Kyiv Oblast and the identification of a new high-value energy target, Kanivska HPP (Cherkasy Oblast). UAF deep strike operations remain highly effective, confirmed by BDA in Taganrog and ongoing AD activity in Novorossiysk. The battle for Air Defense synchronization is entering its most critical phase.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Central AD Axis (CRITICAL):
  • Kyiv East: UAV formations confirmed entering eastern Kyiv Oblast, tracking westbound (242247Z). This marks a third major AD saturation zone, straining limited mobile SHORAD assets already allocated to Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad. (FACT/JUDGMENT: HIGH CONFIDENCE)
  • Kanivska HPP (CIK): RF sources have explicitly identified the Kanivska HPP as a potential target (242228Z). This hydroelectric plant in Cherkasy Oblast represents a major CIK target, requiring immediate force protection measures. (JUDGMENT: HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• RF Deep Rear: UAF deep strikes have achieved confirmed kinetic effects: Fire confirmed in Taganrog, Rostov Oblast, following drone attack (242238Z). RF AD systems are actively engaging UAF drones over Novorossiysk (242243Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Permissive for all domains.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The highest priority is the execution of the strategic AD engagement protocol against the confirmed Caliber missile launch. AD resources are now critically spread thin across four oblasts (Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Kyiv) under simultaneous threats. The status of Plan 7-B MOD remains unverified and critical.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: RF has demonstrated the capacity to synchronize strategic missile strikes (Caliber) with high-volume, multi-axis AD saturation (Shahed/Geran) and coordinated IO pressure. INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-1 hour):

1. Strategic C2 Decapitation: Target the C2/J-FIRE redundancy centers identified in the Caliber pre-launch planning, potentially including the new threat to Kanivska HPP.
2. Overwhelm AD: Use the UAV waves entering Kyiv and Kirovohrad to saturate defense layers, forcing UAF to expend strategic interceptors unnecessarily or fail to engage the Calibers.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

TARGET SHIFT: The explicit mention of Kanivska HPP signifies an immediate tactical shift in high-value targeting, moving away from purely logistical/rail infrastructure towards critical energy production facilities in central Ukraine. This is likely an attempt to disrupt long-term industrial output and national morale simultaneously with the Pokrovsk pressure. (JUDGMENT: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

FRICTION CONFIRMED: UAF kinetic action in Taganrog and Novorossiysk forces RF to divert operational resources (AD units, fire services, civil defense) away from offensive tasks. Long-term, reports of China increasing prices for military-related goods suggest future high-end component acquisition friction for RF.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust, successfully coordinating the initiation of the complex strategic kinetic sequence exactly within the predicted window.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: High-alert defensive posture activated across Central and Southern AD corridors. READINESS: Critical. The force must now execute the prepared AD response under maximum pressure. The effectiveness of the deep strike campaign (Taganrog/Novorossiysk) demonstrates retained offensive kinetic freedom of action, mitigating some of the pressure on the frontline.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS: Confirmed successful UAF kinetic strikes on Taganrog CIK/military assets. The campaign forces RF to dedicate significant AD resources to its own rear, potentially weakening frontline air cover. SETBACK: CRITICAL: The Caliber launch initiation, combined with the lack of C2 confirmation for Plan 7-B MOD, means the operational situation on the Pokrovsk axis is rapidly nearing the MDCOA threshold.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

REQUIREMENT: Immediate tracking and allocation of strategic interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T) against the 8 confirmed Caliber launches. Urgent requirement to allocate mobile SHORAD to the Kanivska HPP and Kyiv East corridors. CONSTRAINT: Absolute conservation of strategic interceptors remains the primary constraint until Caliber trajectories are fully confirmed.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF state media (TASS) is concurrently pushing narratives designed to create diplomatic friction and operational paralysis:

1. Peace Optimism: Citing US political figures (Trump circle) suggesting a peace deal is near, aiming to sow distrust among Kyiv's partners and encourage a "wait-and-see" approach.
2. Funding Cutoff: Explicitly claiming that direct US funding has stopped, focusing on kinetic assistance being channeled through NATO sales, potentially intended to create uncertainty regarding immediate resupply mechanisms.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Internal UAF morale is likely bolstered by the successful, visible deep strikes (Taganrog fire). However, the active threat of strategic missile strikes (Calibers) elevates national anxiety.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The immediate goal of the RF IO campaign is to neutralize the Western political reaction to the strategic missile strike by preemptively introducing the "peace optimism" narrative. This requires rapid counter-IO to ensure continued, unambiguous material support.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 1 Hour (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Caliber Impact: The 8 confirmed Caliber missiles will impact priority C2/CIK targets (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia/potentially Kanivska HPP) NLT 2340Z.
2. AD Probe Intensification: UAV formations in Kyiv and Kirovohrad will intensify their probing to force UAF AD engagement ahead of the kinetic climax, potentially feinting towards high-density urban areas.
3. Pokrovsk Exploitation: Confirmation of C2/CIK damage from the Caliber strikes will immediately trigger RF local ground forces (40th/155th OMBR) to launch aggressive reconnaissance-in-force attacks on the Pokrovsk defensive line NLT 240000Z.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 6 Hours (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF achieves simultaneous operational paralysis:

1. Successful kinetic destruction of a high-value CIK target (e.g., Kanivska HPP) and the primary J-FIRE C2 node via Caliber strikes.
2. UAF AD systems fail to track or successfully intercept the majority of the strategic strike, leading to critical capability degradation.
3. RF ground forces capitalize on the operational disruption by achieving a deep, localized penetration of the Pokrovsk axis (e.g., bypassing Rodynske) before Plan 7-B MOD elements can be reorganized and deployed defensively.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. AIR DEFENSE (J-AIR): STRATEGIC INTERCEPT EXECUTION.

   • Action: Immediately transition from "Weapons Hold" to "Weapons Free" against the 8 confirmed Caliber launches. Prioritize intercept allocation based on target vector confirmation (C2/J-FIRE nodes > Kanivska HPP > other CIK).
   • Action: Rapidly deploy remaining mobile SHORAD assets (VAMPIRE/Gepard) from the Kharkiv/Poltava reserves to cover the newly active Kyiv East UAV corridor and harden the Kanivska HPP CIK site.
   • Rationale: The threat is kinetic and imminent. Delay risks C2 decapitation.

2. OPERATIONAL (J3): CIK FORCE PROTECTION (Kanivska HPP).

   • Action: Immediately deploy engineer teams to Kanivska HPP (Cherkasy Oblast) to establish damage control protocols and pre-position equipment for rapid counter-strike infrastructure defense. Increase tactical ISR over the area.
   • Rationale: Proactive defense against the newly cued target mitigates massive collateral damage and long-term energy disruption.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (STRATCOM): IO NEUTRALIZATION.

   • Action: Issue a robust and immediate media release explicitly linking the confirmed Caliber missile launch sequence and UAV saturation campaign to the RF "peace optimism" narrative (Trump claims). Frame the RF diplomatic maneuvers as a cynical attempt to achieve strategic military goals under the cover of negotiations.
   • Rationale: Maintain political support and prevent partner paralysis during the critical kinetic window.