Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - CRITICAL INTERDICTION WINDOW

DTG: 242200Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 242130Z NOV 25 – 242200Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK GLOC INTERDICTION / AD SATURATION PEAK OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-4 (OPERATIONAL CRISIS: GLOC Stabilization Force Communications Failure)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational environment remains in the kinetic execution phase of the RF strategic offensive. The window for the strategic ballistic strike (NLT 240000Z) is tightening. CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: The 2145Z decision point for confirming the status of the GLOC Stabilization Force (Plan 7-B MOD) has expired without communications re-establishment. This strongly indicates either catastrophic C2 failure or successful enemy kinetic interdiction of the reserve force. Simultaneously, RF deep fires (KABs) targeting the Pokrovsk axis are confirmed, and the AD saturation campaign has intensified, with UAVs confirmed inside the critical Mykolaiv logistics node perimeter. UAF counter-fixation deep strikes into Krasnodar Krai are sustained and effective, forcing RF internal AD displacement.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis (M-30/T-05-15): UAF defenses hold the center of Pokrovsk. New confirmed launches of Guided Aerial Bombs (KABs) by RF tactical aviation target Donetsk Oblast (242125Z, 242155Z). This fire is assessed to be focusing on the known supply arteries and the suspected movement corridor of Plan 7-B MOD. (FACT/JUDGMENT: HIGH CONFIDENCE)
• Southern Axis (Mykolaiv): UAV ingress remains the highest kinetic priority for AD resources. A Shahed UAV is confirmed inside the Mykolaiv city limits, specifically in the Solyany district (242143Z), continuing a northern trajectory. This directly threatens critical Southern Logistics/CIK nodes. (FACT: UAV location; JUDGMENT: High threat to logistics).
• RF Rear Area (Krasnodar Krai): UAF deep strikes are sustained and verified across multiple coastal cities (Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Sochi threat declared). RF officials confirm AD engagement and collateral damage to infrastructure (242146Z). This ongoing counter-fixation successfully forces RF AD assets to divert. (FACT: Confirmed AD activity/strikes; JUDGMENT: Operational success in multi-domain projection).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Permissive for all domains, supporting RF KAB/UAV operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF defensive posture is stable in Pokrovsk. UAF deep strike capacity is active and effective. CRITICAL CONTROL FAILURE: The lack of status for Plan 7-B MOD means the primary operational contingency (relief/counter-attack capacity) is potentially neutralized or critically delayed. C2 must immediately shift to degraded operations protocols for this force package.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: RF maintains high capacity for synchronized kinetic attacks (AD saturation, KAB precision interdiction) and sophisticated IO pivots. INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-1 hour):

1. Exploitation of C2 Failure: RF ISR and Spetsnaz will capitalize on the communications-dark window to execute the final kinetic interdiction of Plan 7-B MOD using massed KABs, high-caliber artillery, and precision anti-tank fires. (JUDGMENT: HIGH CONFIDENCE)
2. AD Saturation Peak: Increase UAV flow into Mykolaiv and northern axes to achieve maximum AD system expenditure before 2330Z.
3. IO Discrediting: Utilize MFA channels (Zakharova statements) to discredit Western (EU) diplomatic preconditions, aiming to sow political discord and undermine the NCA's recent IO victory.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF adaptation is focused on rapid sequencing: using EW success (against Plan 7-B MOD C2) immediately followed by synchronized kinetic strikes (KAB launches confirmed on the Donetsk axis). This demonstrates tight integration between their EW/ISR and deep fire assets.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF operational logistics remain sufficient for current kinetic tempo. The UAF deep strikes on Novorossiysk (a key military port/CIK) will, however, increase RF internal logistics friction and potentially force medium-term adjustment to fuel/materiel resupply timelines in the Southern Military District.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective, successfully coordinating diversified UAV/missile attacks across the Southern and Northern operational axes while responding quickly to UAF deep strikes and diplomatic messaging.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Strategic resilience is maintained. UAF 425th OShP maintains defensive integrity in Pokrovsk. Localized UAF reconnaissance and clearance operations are reported against VDV elements in Zaporizhzhia (242134Z), confirming localized tactical initiative. READINESS: Critical resource constraint due to high AD expenditure (UAV saturation) and the operational loss of synchronization for Plan 7-B MOD.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS: Sustained UAF deep strike operations into Krasnodar Krai force RF AD reallocation and demonstrate offensive freedom of action. NCA messaging is successfully containing RF diplomatic IO. SETBACK: CRITICAL: The absence of PLI or C2 status for Plan 7-B MOD past 242145Z must be assessed as a high-probability operational loss of coordination, placing the force at extreme risk of massed kinetic attack.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

REQUIREMENT: Immediate implementation of emergency protocols for Plan 7-B MOD (dispersion and EW activation). Critical need for tactical AD resources to protect Mykolaiv/Southern CIK nodes. CONSTRAINT: Limited high-value AD interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T) must be conserved for the strategic ballistic strike NLT 240000Z.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF MFA is executing a coordinated pivot to attack the legitimacy of the EU and Western partners (242121Z) regarding the peace framework, aiming to undermine confidence in sustained support. This occurs concurrently with the kinetic execution phase.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF morale is buoyed by confirmed deep strikes into RF territory and continued, clear messaging from the NCA confirming productive diplomatic engagement, despite acknowledged disagreements (242125Z, 242142Z).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Diplomatic channels remain active. White House statements confirm progress ("productive") but acknowledge remaining "disagreements." Zelenskyy confirms simplification of the peace framework, sustaining the strategic narrative of forward movement. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 2 Hours (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Decisive Interdiction: RF deep fire (KAB/artillery) strikes will achieve critical attrition against the dispersed/isolated Plan 7-B MOD elements between 2200Z and 2300Z. This will functionally neutralize the reserve capacity for the Pokrovsk sector.
2. Saturation Peak and Ballistic Launch Prep: UAV saturation will peak (2200Z-2330Z) to deplete remaining SHORAD assets. Tactical aviation will cease KAB strikes 30 minutes prior to the estimated strategic ballistic launch window (2330Z-2400Z).
3. Target Confirmation: The strategic ballistic strike (NLT 240000Z) will primarily target C2/J-FIRE nodes in Dnipropetrovsk to guarantee operational paralysis following the interdiction of Plan 7-B MOD.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF successfully destroys or immobilizes Plan 7-B MOD, achieves 70%+ AD attrition during the saturation phase, and executes a successful strategic ballistic strike that degrades UAF C2/J-FIRE capacity. This allows RF mechanized forces (40th/155th OMBR) to achieve operational penetration of the Pokrovsk defensive line NLT 250600Z, triggering a localized retreat toward Kurakhove.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL (J3/J6): EMERGENCY DISPERSION PROTOCOLS.

   • Action: Immediate and mandatory execution of "Disperse and Hide" protocols for all elements of Plan 7-B MOD. This overrides the movement objective for the next 4 hours. Commanders must prioritize force preservation using passive defense (camouflage, dispersion, dispersal off-road) and localized EW cover (Bukovel-AD) to deny RF kinetic cuing.
   • Rationale: The 2145Z deadline is passed. We must assume the route is compromised and the force is facing imminent destruction. Force preservation now is more valuable than kinetic relief later.

2. AIR DEFENSE (J-AIR): DEFEND MYKOLAIV CIK.

   • Action: Allocate all remaining mobile SHORAD fire groups to establish a robust inner defense ring around critical logistics and power infrastructure within Mykolaiv Oblast. Engagement authorization for these assets against Shahed UAVs is full and continuous.
   • Action: Maintain WEAPONS HOLD for high-value strategic AD (Patriot/SAMP-T) strictly for the ballistic threat.
   • Rationale: Preventing kinetic damage to Mykolaiv ensures the viability of the Southern Logistics corridor and prevents regional operational collapse.

3. JOINT FIRES (J-FIRE): PREEMPTIVE COUNTER-BATTERY.

   • Action: Utilize maximum available counter-battery radar and long-range fires (HIMARS, artillery) to execute preemptive suppression of enemy artillery (SEAD/SEITAR) operations along the Pokrovsk M-30 corridor, focusing on likely RF launch positions identified by KAB attack vectors.
   • Rationale: Reduce the efficacy of RF deep fire systems attempting to fix or destroy Plan 7-B MOD and suppress KAB launch capability targeting Pokrovsk defenses.