Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP) - URGENT ACTION WINDOW

DTG: 242030Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 241950Z NOV 25 – 242030Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (GLOC INTERDICTION CRITICAL) / STRATEGIC STRIKE (RECONFIRMED IMMINENCE) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-4 (OPERATIONAL CRISIS: GLOC PENETRATION IMMINENT)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational crisis has matured into the critical kinetic phase centered on the Pokrovsk M-30/T-05-15 GLOC. The window for proactive denial of the RF breach (NLT 242030Z) has been reached. RF is simultaneously executing attrition drone waves across Northern and Central Ukraine (Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk) as confirmed by UAF Air Force (241950Z, 242017Z), validating the high probability of a coordinated strategic ballistic strike NLT 240000Z.

Critically, UAF National Command Authority (NCA) has successfully neutralized the RF cognitive paralysis threat through a high-profile address (Zelenskyy, 242008Z), confirming diplomatic progress but issuing a clear operational warning regarding persistent RF kinetic pressure ("very careful about air raid alarms"). This permits the immediate, decisive deployment of reserves.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (FACT/JUDGMENT)

• Pokrovsk Axis (M-30/T-05-15): STATUS RED. RF ground exploitation is now expected to commence or accelerate immediately following the 2030Z threshold. This is the main effort.
• Airspace (Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk): Multiple groups of RF UAVs confirmed tracking southwest, aiming to deplete UAF Short-Range Air Defense (SHORAD) coverage, specifically near the operational area and central logistics hubs. (FACT)
• Black Sea/Naval: UAF UAVs confirmed striking targets in Novorossiysk, leading to active RF Air Defense (AD) response (241951Z, DS Belief 0.072). This confirms UAF ability to maintain pressure on RF deep logistics/naval assets.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (FACT)

Permissive for all domains.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures (JUDGMENT)

UAF C2 nodes remain secure following hardening protocols. Strategic reserves must now be in motion toward the Pokrovsk sector. The 82nd Air Assault Brigade (suggested in UAF internal messaging, 242001Z) may be a candidate for high-mobility stabilization tasks.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (JUDGMENT)

CAPABILITY: RF maintains high capacity for synchronized multi-domain attacks (IO, ground, deep fires). The 40th/155th OMBR elements are poised for tactical breakthrough. INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-2 hours):

1. GLOC Physical Seizure: Rapid insertion of RF lead elements (SpN/Reconnaissance) onto the Pokrovsk GLOC to establish strong FOPs and block counter-attacks.
2. AD Attrition: Sustain high-volume, low-cost UAV strikes into Central/Northern Ukraine to degrade UAF interceptor stockpiles ahead of the NLT 240000Z ballistic launch.
3. IO Diversion: Amplify localized tactical narratives (e.g., Kupyansk infiltration claims) to distract UAF C2 from the primary GLOC threat.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations (JUDGMENT)

RF has maintained tactical sequencing despite UAF hardening of C2 nodes and the temporary ballistic scrub. The immediate launch of coordinated drone waves confirms the intent to precede the strategic strike with AD suppression.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status (JUDGMENT)

RF logistics remain adequate to support the ongoing KAB campaign and ground exploitation forces. Dva Mayora's (RF support channel) appeal for aid suggests localized materiel shortfalls or preparation for a prolonged, resource-intensive offensive. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness (JUDGMENT)

RF C2 remains effective, executing the transition to Phase Two (Ground Exploitation/AD Attrition) seamlessly following the temporary failure/delay of Phase One (Strategic Decapitation).

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness (JUDGMENT)

POSTURE: Defensive, now transitioning to tactical counter-attack (if reserve commitment is executed). READINESS: Strategic readiness is high due to NCA successfully countering the IO threat. Operational readiness hinges entirely on the immediate tactical allocation of reserves to the Pokrovsk GLOC.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks (FACT/JUDGMENT)

SUCCESS: NCA effectively neutralized the RF cognitive warfare operation targeting decision paralysis regarding Western support/peace talks. SETBACK: Plan 7-B MOD (Relief Force): Remains unaccounted for (Communications-Dark/CRITICAL GAP 1). This forces reliance on secondary, dedicated GLOC Stabilization Forces.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints (JUDGMENT)

REQUIREMENT: Execution of the decision to deploy the GLOC Stabilization Force. Sustained Indirect Fire (IF) resupply for the Pokrovsk sector. CONSTRAINT: Potential exhaustion of SHORAD munitions due to the ongoing RF drone attrition waves.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (JUDGMENT)

RF IO has shifted focus immediately following the neutralization of the diplomatic friction narrative:

• Tactical Exaggeration: Heavy RF amplification of alleged success near Kupyansk, specifically citing a fantastical "pipeline infiltration" (241957Z, 242000Z). This is likely an attempt to draw UAF reserves north or distract ISR assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Counter-Narrative Reinforcement (UAF): Zelenskyy's address strongly reaffirmed UAF sovereignty, constructive engagement with Western partners (Geneva), and validated the threat of ongoing RF kinetic pressure. This is a highly effective counter-IO measure. (FACT)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors (JUDGMENT)

UAF morale is reinforced by the clear, high-level guidance from the President and the successful rebuttal of the "zero gratitude" narrative (241958Z). The public warning about air raids serves to manage expectations regarding imminent strike risk.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments (FACT)

Zelenskyy confirmed the Geneva delegation achieved progress, reducing the necessary points for a peace framework (from 28). This suggests continued Western diplomatic engagement, mitigating the previously assessed risk of political paralysis.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4 Hours (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. GLOC Hardening: RF 40th/155th OMBR elements will establish forward combat patrols on the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC NLT 242130Z, aiming to fix UAF defenses and prepare the corridor for heavier armor exploitation.
2. Attrition and Pre-Positioning: Drone groups (Kharkiv/Dnipropetrovsk) will continue their SW track, leading to localized air defense engagements and forcing UAF expenditure of high-value interceptors.
3. Kinetic Fixation: KAB and artillery strikes targeting reserve movement corridors (Zaporizhzhia) will be maintained to delay counter-attack forces.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours (HIGH CONFIDENCE)

RF successfully utilizes the 2030Z threshold to gain an irreversible foothold on the Pokrovsk GLOC. A coordinated failure of UAF SHORAD defense (due to attrition) allows the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike to achieve its revised objective: the destruction of critical UAF reserve assembly areas and logistics nodes, enabling deep operational penetration by RF ground forces.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. OPERATIONAL (J3/J5): CONFIRM & PROTECT GLOC STABILIZATION FORCE MOVEMENT.

   • Action: J3 to provide immediate confirmation (NLT 242045Z) that the designated GLOC Stabilization Force (reserves) is committed and actively maneuvering. This is not a planning task; it is an execution audit.
   • Action: Dedicate priority J-FIRE (Joint Fires) support to suppress known or suspected RF interdiction points along the stabilization force's route of advance. Prioritize SEAD against RF ISR that could cue KABs.
   • Rationale: The time for preparation is over. Decisive commitment must be confirmed to prevent total GLOC loss.

2. AIR DEFENSE (J-AIR): MANAGE ATTRITION AND PROTECT RESERVES.

   • Action: UAF Air Force must strictly adhere to the WEAPONS HOLD order for strategic AD assets (Patriot/SAMP-T) against the current low-cost drone waves. Continue using mobile fire groups (Gepard, MGs) for current UAV engagements.
   • Action: Immediately re-task high-value SHORAD (e.g., NASAMS) to provide point defense over the identified Reserve Assembly Areas and the forward C2 node supporting the GLOC counter-attack, recognizing the RF shift to targeting reserves.
   • Rationale: RF is actively depleting interceptors. Conservation is critical to successfully defending against the imminent ballistic strike, which Zelenskyy's warning re-confirms.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (STRATCOM): PIVOT TO TACTICAL IO COUNTER-ATTACK.

   • Action: STRATCOM must immediately launch a campaign that uses Zelenskyy’s authoritative warning as the basis for national and frontline resilience messaging.
   • Action: Simultaneously, STRATCOM must directly debunk or ridicule the RF "pipeline infiltration" narrative (Kupyansk) to deny RF intelligence the ability to draw UAF focus away from the Pokrovsk main effort.
   • Rationale: Maintain the cognitive advantage gained by the NCA speech and prevent diversion of critical ISR/C2 resources to secondary axes.