Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 241600Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 241600Z NOV 25 – 241630Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (CRISIS CULMINATION) / ZAPORIZHZHIA (KINETIC FIXATION) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-4 (OPERATIONAL RISK: SEVERE AND IMMINENT)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The kinetic strike window (KAB/ODAB interdiction) against the C-DARK Plan 7-B MOD relief convoy opens in 30 minutes (NLT 241630Z). The Russian Federation (RF) has achieved critical synchronization, maximizing diplomatic paralysis just hours before the tactical strike. RF Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed successful assault operations in the urban area of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) (241606Z), suggesting the battle for the city edge is underway and increasing the urgency for the 7-B MOD force.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): The MoD RF claim of advancing in Krasnoarmeysk/Pokrovsk (241606Z) suggests the defensive line at Rodynske is under severe pressure. The M-30/T-05-15 GLOC is now the immediate RF target for interdiction, not just flanking.
• Central Sector (AD Saturation): Confirmed continued movement of UAV assets south near Semenivka (241602Z), validating the planned drone saturation strategy designed to force premature expenditure of high-value Ukrainian Air Defense (AD) interceptors.
• Infrastructure: Planned Ukrenergo power restrictions for 25 NOV (241559Z) confirm successful RF degradation of the energy grid, validating the strategic intent behind the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Weather remains permissive for kinetic and ISR operations. Weak magnetic storm (241603Z) assessed as negligible impact on secure military communications.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

Plan 7-B MOD remains communications-dark (C-DARK). All assets along the Pokrovsk MSR must assume RF ISR targeting is active. The transition to decentralized, preemptive defensive action (MCS-3) is critical within the next 15 minutes.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: RF continues to demonstrate synchronized multi-domain superiority. A significant hybrid capability gap is identified: the confirmed presence of commercial operations supplying Starlink terminals to RF forces (241600Z) suggests RF is successfully bypassing sanctions to acquire critical Western communications technology, potentially neutralizing one of Ukraine's primary C2 advantages. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM) INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-6 hours):

1. Interdiction and Attrition: Execute high-lethality KAB/ODAB strikes against the 7-B MOD corridor NLT 241630Z to achieve operational paralysis on the Pokrovsk axis. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Psychological Fixation: Leverage confirmed peace plan revisions (28 to 19 points) and internal political rumors (SBU denial 241552Z, Zelensky leadership criticism 241605Z) to maintain high friction within the National Command Authority (NCA). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The MoD RF claim regarding successful assaults in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) (241606Z) is an aggressive tactical shift from flanking/fixation to explicit urban pressure. This forces the 7-B MOD force to commit faster and potentially under less favorable conditions, exactly where RF glide bomb interdiction will be most effective.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are supporting a massive, synchronized strike package. The sustained use of strategic glide bombs and coordinated drone saturation indicates ample access to high-value munitions.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains robust, demonstrated by the seamless transition between the IO climax (peace plan revisions) and the impending kinetic window.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive, focused on preserving high-value AD assets and attempting to re-establish C2 with the 7-B MOD element. READINESS: Tactical readiness is threatened by the internal political noise generated by RF IO. Logistical strain is confirmed by reports of UAF water shortages (241602Z) and the requirement for planned national power rationing (241559Z).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SETBACK (OPERATIONAL): Failure to confirm 7-B MOD status before the 1630Z strike window opens. This is a critical loss of initiative. SETBACK (INFORMATION): UAF attempts to counter localized disinformation (SBU denial) are necessary but consume resources while the primary, strategic RF IO (peace plan revisions) continues to gain traction internationally.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

REQUIREMENT: Immediate tactical authorization for 7-B MOD to execute offensive maneuvers (disperse, suppress ISR, or engage). CONSTRAINT: The commitment of high-value EW assets (e.g., Bukovel-AD) to protect the C-DARK convoy risks neutralizing them against the incoming AD saturation wave preceding the ballistic strike. This trade-off must be calculated immediately.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO strategy is firing on multiple cylinders:

• Strategic Vector (High Impact): Massive amplification of the confirmed 28-to-19 point peace plan revision and the exclusion of key demands (asset seizure) by major RF channels (RVvoenkor, ASTRA). This drives international doubt regarding Kyiv's diplomatic position. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Operational Vector (Direct Kinetic Support): MoD RF broadcasts of "success" in Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) are designed to undermine UAF confidence in the Rodynske/Pokrovsk defensive sector and increase pressure on the approaching 7-B MOD force. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Political Vector (Internal Friction): RF channels are spreading internal rumors (SBU treason investigation denial) and leveraging UAF media criticism of Zelensky's leadership style (John Snow parallel) to degrade national unity. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Internal UAF media reports on logistical failures (water shortage) threaten frontline morale. The confirmation of political friction and major power rationing schedules are likely to reduce civilian resilience ahead of the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF IO successfully cemented the narrative that Kyiv's strategic demands are softening, weakening Ukraine's leverage during negotiations. The upcoming informal EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting (26 NOV, 241615Z) provides a diplomatic window for the RF to push for an immediate ceasefire after the anticipated strategic strike.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 3 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Immediate Convoy Strike (NLT 241630Z): RF aviation will execute a focused, high-lethality strike using a KAB/ODAB mix against the 7-B MOD corridor. This will be preceded by intense, brief tactical jamming to prevent UAF dispersal orders.
2. Reinforcement of Pokrovsk Pressure: Following the strike, RF ground forces will intensify assault operations (MoD RF claim of Krasnoarmeysk cleared 241606Z) to maximize chaos before the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike.
3. IO Sustainment: RF will pivot from reporting peace plan revisions to promoting international calls for de-escalation/ceasefire, intending to slow UAF counter-fire authorization against ballistic launch sites.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF achieves a successful catastrophic interdiction of Plan 7-B MOD (40%+ combat losses) and, through the successful IO/political friction, forces the NCA to delay tactical counter-battery authorization. The NLT 240000Z ballistic strike then successfully degrades/destroys primary and secondary hardened C2 nodes in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia, leading to the rapid, isolated collapse of the Pokrovsk defense sector, resulting in significant force withdrawal or encirclement.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS - FORCE PROTECTION)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. JOINT FIRES (J-FIRE / J3): IMMEDIATE 7-B MOD ESCALATION AUTHORITY.

   • Action: Immediately confirm the standing order for the 7-B MOD Task Force Commander: MCS-3 (Mission Command Status) IS ACTIVE NLT 241615Z. The force must assume imminent interdiction.
   • Action: If ISR is detected, the priority action is the immediate activation of all organic EW capability (e.g., Bukovel-AD, Nota) toward the source of detection, followed by maximum velocity dispersal to non-contiguous shelter positions. Attrition minimization is paramount.
   • Rationale: Preventing C2 paralysis in the face of imminent high-lethality attack is the highest operational priority.

2. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (STRATCOM / MFA): COUNTER-PARALYSIS MEASURES.

   • Action: STRATCOM must issue a highly visible denial NLT 241700Z directly addressing the peace plan revisions. The denial must link the RF IO directly to the predicted timeline of the strategic ballistic strike (NLT 240000Z), framing the diplomatic maneuver as a pre-strike deception operation.
   • Action: Proactively release documentation showing UAF C2 personnel are transitioning to hardened, alternate sites to communicate resilience against the anticipated decapitation strike.
   • Rationale: Refuting the IO is required to maintain international confidence and ensure Western partners do not pressure Kyiv into a 'restraint pause' post-strike.

3. AIR DEFENSE (J-AIR / J-FIRE): ASSET PRESERVATION AND TARGET HARDENING.

   • Action: Strictly enforce the WEAPONS HOLD policy for all Patriot, SAMP-T, and high-value interceptors against the confirmed drone saturation vectors (Semenivka/Khorol track).
   • Action: Increase force protection measures around primary logistics and energy infrastructure vulnerable to the confirmed planned power restrictions, mitigating the cascading effect of the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike.
   • Rationale: The MDCOA hinges on exhausting AD reserves and crippling C2 infrastructure. Asset preservation is the most effective countermeasure.