Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 241600Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 241530Z NOV 25 – 241600Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (CRISIS CULMINATION) / ZAPORIZHZHIA (KINETIC FIXATION) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-4 (OPERATIONAL RISK: SEVERE)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational environment is characterized by the convergence of the immediate kinetic strike window (Convoy Interdiction: 0-2 hours; Ballistic Strike: 8 hours) and the successful culmination of the Russian Federation (RF) diplomatic information operation (IO). The key analytical finding is that the leak regarding the removal of the $100B asset seizure clause is now confirmed by international media reporting, creating severe friction in US-Ukrainian negotiations hours before the anticipated strategic strike. The priority threat remains the communications-dark Plan 7-B MOD convoy moving toward Pokrovsk.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): The M-30/T-05-15 GLOC remains the decisive terrain. RF forces are postured for immediate, high-lethality interdiction.
• Zaporizhzhia Axis (FIXATION): Confirmed RF advances and continued use of heavy glide bombs (KABs/ODABs) near Huliaipole reinforces the fixation strategy, successfully pinning UAF reserves away from Pokrovsk.
• AD Saturation Zone: An RF Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is confirmed tracking north through Poltava Oblast toward Khorol (241536Z). This validates the AD depletion operation is actively drawing fire farther west, increasing the geographic scope of the air defense effort.
• Vovchansk/Kharkiv: Confirmed capture of 57th Brigade personnel (241546Z) indicates persistent RF pressure on the Northern sector, ensuring UAF cannot redeploy forces south easily.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No change. Favorable for high-altitude strike and low-level UAV operations. Note: Space weather alert regarding intense polar auroras over Russia (241532Z TASS) is dismissed as irrelevant to current ground/air operations in Ukraine.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

Plan 7-B MOD remains communications-dark (C-DARK). The designated RF KAB/ODAB launch window is anticipated to open NLT 241630Z. UAF control measures must now transition from preemptive defense to immediate reactive defense (active EW/FPV suppression and maneuver dispersion).

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: RF has demonstrated synchronized capabilities across the kinetic, information, and diplomatic domains. The confirmed use of ODAB (heavy thermobaric ordnance) indicates high-lethality strike packages for interdiction. INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-6 hours):

1. Kinetic Interdiction: Execute high-lethality KAB/ODAB strikes against the 7-B MOD corridor, leveraging dedicated ISR assets prior to the strike window (1630Z). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Diplomatic Paralysis: Maintain high-level diplomatic pressure by amplifying the confirmed asset seizure clause removal and the lack of a Trump-Zelensky meeting, intending to paralyze the National Command Authority (NCA) from authorizing counter-battery strike authorizations NLT 240000Z. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed deployment and use of ODAB (heavy thermobaric glide bombs) in the fixation sectors (Zaporizhzhia/Huliaipole) is a significant adaptation. If these munitions are employed against the 7-B MOD column, the attrition rate will be substantially higher than standard HE KAB strikes.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain sufficient to support synchronized operations. The high-volume use of drones (confirmed Poltava track) and precision KABs suggests adequate access to key munitions.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective. The synchronized timing between confirmed IO success (15:42Z) and the anticipated kinetic interdiction window (16:30Z) suggests centralized control over strategic and operational effects. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive, high readiness for AD intercept against the NLT 240000Z strike, but critically exposed on the Pokrovsk axis. READINESS: Tactical readiness is constrained by localized logistical needs (evidenced by ongoing fundraising for FPV defense/vehicles). Strategic C2 resilience is being tested by confirmed internal diplomatic friction (Geneva negotiations near-failure, 241533Z).

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS: Previous activation of Starlink Direct to Cell remains the primary C2 resilience measure against the MDCOA. SETBACK (STRATEGIC): Diplomatic leverage is being actively eroded by confirmed RF IO regarding peace plan point removals (asset seizure). Failure to close the 7-B MOD C-DARK status represents the single largest operational threat vulnerability.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

REQUIREMENT: Immediate authorization for the 7-B MOD task force commander to execute offensive EW/FPV counter-ISR operations without requiring HQ confirmation. CONSTRAINT: The overriding requirement to preserve high-value AD interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T) for the ballistic strike limits defensive options against the incoming drone saturation wave (Poltava/Khorol track).

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO campaign has transitioned from disinformation to exploiting confirmed, damaging facts regarding the peace plan structure.

• Key Fact Confirmation: The removal of the $100B asset seizure clause from the US/EU framework is confirmed (The Washington Post/Bloomberg, 241526Z/241542Z).
• Messaging: RF channels (TASS, Два майора) amplify this confirmation and the lack of a Trump-Zelensky meeting to reinforce the narrative that Kyiv is internationally isolated and strategically weakening its position ahead of the kinetic escalation.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public morale is likely to drop sharply upon widespread reporting of the confirmed removal of the asset seizure clause, as this touches a key national sovereignty and financial pillar. The need for immediate fundraising appeals (DeepState, RBC-Ukraine) signals persistent resource gaps at the tactical level, potentially impacting frontline morale.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The confirmed diplomatic friction in Geneva (241533Z) and the amplification of the Trump-Xi call pose an immediate threat of international pressure (US/China) for Kyiv to exercise restraint immediately following the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike. This pressure is the strategic objective of the RF IO.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Convoy Interdiction (1630Z - 1800Z): RF aviation assets (Su-34/Su-35) will launch high-lethality KAB/ODAB mixes against the identified 7-B MOD movement corridor. This will be preceded by intense electronic reconnaissance/jamming to neutralize tactical FPV defense.
2. AD Saturation (1700Z - 2100Z): The Poltava/Khorol drone track will be reinforced by subsequent waves of Shahed/Geran drones aimed at depleting reserves and fixing Mobile Fire Groups (MFGs) farther from the primary strike targets (C2 nodes).
3. IO Climax (1600Z - 2200Z): RF will intensify messaging that Kyiv’s diplomatic position is failing, forcing the NCA to delay tactical authorizations pending strategic consultation.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF successfully interdicts Plan 7-B MOD with high attrition (40%+ losses) using ODAB/KAB strikes. Simultaneously, the NCA, compromised by the successful IO targeting their strategic financial independence, hesitates to authorize pre-approved counter-battery fire against launch positions. The NLT 240000Z ballistic strike achieves the intended operational fragmentation by destroying the primary and secondary hardened C2 nodes in Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia, leading to localized unit isolation and the operational collapse of the Pokrovsk defense.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS - FORCE PROTECTION)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. MANEUVER EXECUTION (J3): IMMEDIATE RESPONSE FOR 7-B MOD INTERDICTION.

   • Action: Immediately transmit the standing order to the 7-B MOD task force commander: EXECUTE MCS-3 (Mission Command Status, fight without explicit HQ approval) NLT 241615Z. The primary response upon detecting high-threat ISR/Jamming must be full dispersal and localized FPV swarm attack against RF ISR assets cuing KAB launches.
   • Action: Prioritize the use of organic EW assets (Bukovel-AD) to create a protective corridor, mitigating the confirmed high-lethality risk posed by KAB/ODAB strikes.
   • Rationale: The threat window is closing rapidly. Empowering local command is essential to minimizing attrition.

2. AIR DEFENSE (J-FIRE / AIR FORCE): DEFENSIVE PRIORITY REITERATION.

   • Action: Reiterate the WEAPONS HOLD policy for high-value AD systems against the confirmed drone saturation targets (Poltava/Khorol). Utilize only low-cost, high-volume SHORAD/MFGs (Gepard, M-1097 Avenger, MANPADS) for these vectors.
   • Action: Pre-stage specialized C2 teams into the hardened alternate subterranean facilities (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia) NLT 241700Z, ensuring key targeting and interception personnel are protected ahead of the ballistic strike window.
   • Rationale: Preserving high-value interceptors and command continuity is the only way to mitigate the MDCOA ballistic threat.

3. OPERATIONAL C2 (STRATCOM / MFA): NEUTRALIZE DIPLOMATIC BLACKMAIL.

   • Action: STRATCOM, in coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, must issue a definitive public statement NLT 241700Z that forcefully denies that Kyiv has conceded on the sovereign asset seizure clause. The message must explicitly frame the media confirmation (Bloomberg/WP) as a predictable result of RF IO designed to demoralize Ukraine before its strategic strike.
   • Action: Simultaneously communicate with key Western interlocutors (US/UK/EU) to share the confirmed NLT 240000Z ballistic threat timeline, linking the diplomatic maneuvers directly to the kinetic escalation.
   • Rationale: Diplomatic credibility must be maintained to ensure continued international political support following the predicted strategic strike.