Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 241530Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 241505Z NOV 25 – 241530Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (CRISIS CULMINATION) / ZAPORIZHZHIA (KINETIC FIXATION) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-4 (OPERATIONAL RISK: SEVERE)

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational environment is characterized by the convergence of kinetic interdiction efforts against Plan 7-B MOD transit corridors, simultaneous AD saturation operations in Central Ukraine, and a sophisticated, multi-layered RF Information Operation (IO) designed to trigger diplomatic paralysis ahead of the confirmed NLT 240000Z ballistic strike. The primary threat window (Ballistic Strike and Convoy Interdiction) is now within 8.5 hours.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): Focus remains on the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC. RF forces are postured for immediate kinetic interdiction.
• Zaporizhzhia Axis (FIXATION): Confirmed KAB strikes continue to fix UAF reserves. Damage assessment is underway regarding viability of southern supply lines (CRITICAL GAP 3).
• AD Saturation Zone: An RF Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is tracking toward Zavodske, Poltava Oblast (241507Z), confirming the active phase of AD depletion operations across Central Ukraine.
• Kherson/Donetsk: Continued, persistent RF kinetic activity degrading civilian infrastructure and logistics (Kherson academic killed 241510Z; HMMWV destroyed near Boguslavka 241501Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant change. Conditions remain suitable for high-altitude strike and long-range ISR/UAV operations.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

Plan 7-B MOD remains communications-dark during transit (CRITICAL GAP 1). UAF must now assume the RF has achieved positive target acquisition and is actively preparing KAB/Artillery fire missions against the convoy. Control measure emphasis shifts from concealment to active defense and dispersion.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (Threat Assessment)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: The RF demonstrates high capacity for synchronized kinetic (AD depletion, KAB interdiction) and cognitive warfare (rapid diplomatic counter-messaging). INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-6 hours):

1. Exploit C-DARK Status: Intensify ISR and forward observation to cue fires against the 7-B MOD corridor, utilizing KABs/heavy artillery NLT 241700Z. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Maximize Diplomatic Friction: Utilize high-level media leaks (e.g., removal of the $100B asset seizure clause, 241516Z) and contradictory official statements (rejecting the "European" plan, 241501Z) to sow maximum uncertainty regarding Kyiv's diplomatic objectives, aiming to force an international intervention/pause order coinciding with the ballistic strike window. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The confirmed shift in the IO narrative from general endorsement to the specific leak of the removal of the $100B asset seizure clause (241516Z) is a significant adaptation. This leak targets the core economic red line for Kyiv and is designed to create distrust between the UAF Command Authority and Western financial backers.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain sufficient to support the synchronized operational vectors. The confirmed use of UAVs/FPV assets for tactical interdiction (Kharkiv/Donetsk) suggests an adequate supply of cheap munitions to maintain high attrition rates on the flanks.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains effective in synchronizing strategic kinetic timelines (NLT 240000Z strike) with immediate tactical IO moves. The rapid dissemination of the asset seizure leak demonstrates agile manipulation of the global information environment. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (Blue Force Tracking)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: UAF posture remains defensive and resource-constrained. READINESS: Tactical readiness remains high, but the status of the primary reserve (7-B MOD) is critical. The successful deployment of the Starlink Direct to Cell SMS service (241514Z) offers a crucial enhancement to communications resiliency, directly mitigating the strategic risk of kinetic C2 decapitation.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS (C2 RESILIENCE): Activation of Starlink Direct to Cell service substantially hardens field communications against RF jamming and kinetic strike. This is a critical preemptive countermeasure to the MDCOA. SETBACK (KINETIC/IO): Failure to achieve communications with 7-B MOD is a critical tactical vulnerability. The public leak of the asset seizure removal creates significant strategic friction.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

REQUIREMENT: Immediate confirmation of 7-B MOD status and authorization for immediate, non-contingent defensive fire assets (EW, FPV swarm) to protect the column. CONSTRAINT: The necessity to conserve high-value AD interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T) for the main ballistic strike remains the overriding constraint for all regional AD commands.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (Cognitive Domain)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF is executing a two-pronged IO attack:

1. Internal Dissuasion: RF channels (e.g., Colonelcassad) maintain pressure for continued offensive action ("Следующий шаг... должна сделать российская сторона," 241501Z).
2. External Isolation: By leaking the removal of the asset seizure clause, the RF attempts to frame Kyiv as having already compromised key national sovereignty points during negotiations, thereby reducing international sympathy for Ukraine following the NLT 240000Z kinetic strike.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public morale is strained by sustained kinetic strikes (Kherson, Belgorod reports). However, the immediate C2 hardening via Starlink represents a functional morale booster and demonstrates government resilience. Coordination efforts regarding POWs suggest administrative continuity (241513Z).

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The convergence of the Trump-Xi conversation and the aggressive RF IO leaks targeting the peace framework aims to achieve maximum friction between the US, Ukraine, and the EU. The key diplomatic risk is that the US, having invested in the modified 19-point plan, will pressure Kyiv to maintain dialogue immediately after the ballistic strike, delaying military retaliation or counter-strikes.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Convoy Interdiction (1600Z - 1800Z): RF will launch a sustained KAB and saturation artillery attack against the confirmed/suspected 7-B MOD route. This fire mission will be accompanied by heavy EW jamming to prevent UAF counter-battery targeting.
2. AD Saturation Intensification (1800Z - 2100Z): The wave of expendable drones (Shahed/Geran, confirmed Poltava track) will increase significantly across Central and Northern sectors to finalize the AD depletion cycle.
3. Ballistic Launch Prep (2100Z - 2300Z): Final movement of launch assets (Iskander/KN-23) to primary firing positions, secured by strong RF AA defense (531st/583rd AA Regiments).

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF successfully interdicts Plan 7-B MOD with high attrition (40%+ losses) before it reaches Rodynske. Simultaneously, the US/China diplomatic coordination exerts immediate pressure on Kyiv to accept a temporary ceasefire based on the 19-point framework (excluding the asset clause). The NCA hesitates, delaying the authorization of tactical AD fire. The NLT 240000Z ballistic strike succeeds in achieving decapitation of regional C2 nodes (Dnipropetrovsk/Zaporizhzhia), leading to the operational fragmentation of UAF units and the loss of the Pokrovsk sector.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS - FORCE PROTECTION)

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

---

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

1. MANEUVER EXECUTION (J3): IMMEDIATE 7-B MOD EMERGENCY PROTOCOL.

   • Action: Immediately transition the 7-B MOD task force commander to Mission Command Status (MCS-3). MCS-3 authorizes non-contingent counter-fire (EW/FPV swarm/dispersal) upon confirmation of high-threat ISR presence, regardless of current C2 connection status.
   • Action: Leverage the new Starlink Direct to Cell SMS capability as the primary backup C2 channel for the 7-B MOD task force, overriding standard COMSEC procedure for urgent status reporting.
   • Rationale: The time criticality demands empowering the local commander to fight without waiting for HQ confirmation, utilizing newly hardened communications.

2. AIR DEFENSE (J-FIRE / AIR FORCE): COUNTER-STRIKE PRESERVATION.

   • Action: Reiterate the WEAPONS HOLD policy for high-value AD systems (Patriot/SAMP-T) against the drone saturation wave (Poltava/Kharkiv sectors). Assign high-volume SHORAD/Mobile Fire Groups (VAMPIRE/Gepard) specifically to the Poltava threat vector.
   • Action: Prepare immediate, pre-approved counter-battery missions targeting known RF launch boxes for deployment NLT 240030Z, assuming C2 survival.
   • Rationale: Preventing AD depletion is paramount to surviving the NLT 240000Z threat.

3. OPERATIONAL C2 (J6/J2/STRATCOM): NEUTRALIZE DIPLOMATIC BLACKMAIL.

   • Action: STRATCOM, in coordination with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, must issue a definitive and immediate statement NLT 241800Z that Kyiv will not negotiate away the seizure and utilization of frozen RF sovereign assets. Explicitly denounce the leak (241516Z) as RF blackmail designed to cover imminent kinetic escalation.
   • Action: Immediately activate alternate subterranean C2 facilities in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, transferring all essential Joint Fires and Logistics coordination personnel, effective 241700Z.
   • Rationale: Defending the political red line is as critical as defending the M-30 GLOC. Redundant, hardened C2 execution must precede the predicted strike window.