Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 241349Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 241320Z NOV 25 – 241349Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (KINETIC CULMINATION) / ZAPORIZHZHIA (FIXING MANEUVER) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-4 (OPERATIONAL RISK: SEVERE)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The critical decision point (241330Z) regarding the commitment of Plan 7-B MOD has passed. New intelligence indicates an extreme kinetic environment on the Donetsk axis (KAB strikes), coupled with confirmed RF territorial gains (Zatishye, Zaporizhzhia) designed to fix UAF operational reserves. Critically, the RF Information Operation (IO) campaign peaked precisely at 1344Z (Fighterbomber message), attempting to finalize strategic paralysis. However, friendly StratCom (Stefanuk) and allied diplomatic statements (Tusk, Pavel) have provided critical political cover against the RF narrative, clearing the path for kinetic action. The primary risk now shifts from Strategic Paralysis to Force Protection for the committed reserves and Air Defense Posture ahead of the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Donetsk (Pokrovsk Axis): Confirmed Russian Aviation (VKS RF) launch of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) targeting the Donetsk region (241332Z).
  • JUDGMENT: This confirms peak kinetic activity intended to suppress UAF defenses and cover the likely RF ground maneuver on the M-30/T-0515 GLOC.
• Zaporizhzhia Front (New Crisis): RF Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims capture of the settlement Zatishye (241333Z) by the 114th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment.
  • JUDGMENT: This claim, if verified, validates the previous assessment of a flanking maneuver west of Stepnohirsk. The intent is to fix UAF Southern reserves, preventing any lateral redeployment toward the Pokrovsk crisis. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM - RF claim, but aligns with kinetic indicators).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant change. Favorable for RF KAB strikes and sustained reconnaissance (UAV/FPV).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The status of the Plan 7-B MOD launch is UNKNOWN. Analysts assume authorization was granted due to the NCA's political maneuvering (Stefanuk/Tusk statements). If the vanguard has launched, it is now moving into an environment actively suppressed by RF KAB strikes and likely monitored by FPV/ATGM assets.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: RF is demonstrating exceptional capability for mass production of conventional munitions (Chemezov claims), supporting a high operational tempo based on firepower superiority (KAB use). RF maintains the capacity for synchronized multi-domain pressure. INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-6 hours):

1. GLOC Interdiction/Attrition: Maximize kinetic pressure (KAB/Artillery) on the contested Pokrovsk GLOCs (M-30/T-0515) to inflict maximum attrition on any inbound UAF reserve movement (Plan 7-B MOD).
2. Reserve Fixation: Exploit the claimed gain at Zatishye to force UAF operational command to commit resources to stabilizing the Zaporizhzhia front, relieving pressure on the Pokrovsk assault groups. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Psychological Warfare Aftershock: The immediate post-decision IO (Fighterbomber) is designed to create doubt and friction within C2 regarding the wisdom of the kinetic option.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Air-Ground Integration: Increased reliance on high-volume, precision-guided munition (KAB) strikes immediately preceding or during expected UAF operational movement. This suggests a shift from attrition-focused fire to targeted interdiction/shaping fires.
• Technology Display: Public display of the NRTK "Courier" UGV. While not immediate operationally decisive, it reinforces the RF MIC propaganda (Chemezov).

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are supported by high-level claims of immense military industrial production (Chemezov). However, economic intelligence (RBC-Ukraine) confirms a projected one-third drop in oil/gas revenue in November, indicating long-term funding vulnerabilities despite short-term material superiority. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly effective in time-sensitive synchronization. The release of key IO narratives (Fighterbomber) simultaneous with kinetic escalations (KAB, Zatishye claim) demonstrates continued mastery of cross-domain integration.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive forces remain under heavy pressure on the Donetsk axis. Strategic reserve status (Plan 7-B MOD) is presumed active but is highly exposed. READINESS: Tactical AD units maintain vigilance (UAV tracking in Vasylivka). High-level political leadership demonstrated effective StratCom resistance to the IO campaign.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESSES (STRATEGIC): UAF and allied leaders successfully countered the strategic IO (Stefanuk, Tusk, Pavel statements). This action neutralizes the primary threat of strategic paralysis identified previously. SETBACKS (TACTICAL): High probability of facing peak RF air superiority over the movement corridor due to confirmed KAB strikes. Confirmed loss of territory (Zatishye claim) creates an operational dilemma regarding reserve allocation.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

REQUIREMENT: Immediate, real-time feedback on the physical status and location of Plan 7-B MOD. CONSTRAINT: Limited high-value AD assets must be conserved for the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike, meaning they cannot provide full air cover for the 7-B MOD movement now, increasing its kinetic risk.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

• RF IO Climax: The "Peace Plan" narrative received its cynical finale (Fighterbomber), framing the negotiations as a simplified ultimatum imposed externally. This is the last psychological push to halt kinetic action.
• RF Strength Projection: Heavy emphasis on the MIC's capacity (TASS/Chemezov) to discourage sustained resistance and long-term Western commitment.
• UAF Counter-IO (Effective): Speaker Stefanuk clearly articulated UAF "red lines" (241329Z, 241341Z), backed by Czech (241330Z) and Polish (241338Z) leaders who denounced unacceptable points. This effectively inoculated the information space against RF strategic deception.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

The clear articulation of "red lines" and the rejection of the RF peace framework by key allies are likely to stabilize domestic morale, reinforcing the necessity of military action over diplomatic capitulation.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Crucially, key NATO/EU partners (Poland, Czechia) have aligned with Ukraine's position, publicly rejecting the non-negotiable points of the rumored peace plan. This strengthens Ukraine’s position against perceived US/RF diplomatic coercion.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 6 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Continued Aerial Suppression: RF VKS will maintain high sortie rates and KAB strikes against logistical choke points and movement corridors in the Donetsk region, aiming to attrit the 7-B MOD force or force its fragmentation and delay.
2. Preparation for Ballistic Strike: RF forces will finalize preparations for the massed ballistic strike NLT 240000Z, with AD elements remaining on high alert (per previous SAR indicators) to protect launch areas.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF forward observation (Spetsnaz/FPV) successfully identifies the trajectory of Plan 7-B MOD along the primary or secondary GLOC. Simultaneous heavy KAB fire and concentrated ATGM/FPV attacks destroy the main body of the 7-B MOD convoy during transit (NLT 241800Z), turning the strategic reserve into a catastrophic loss. This kinetic success, combined with the successful NLT 240000Z ballistic strike on C2 hubs, leads to the uncontrolled retreat of forward Pokrovsk elements.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS - FORCE PROTECTION)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus is now force preservation during transit and strategic defense against the imminent ballistic threat.

1. MANEUVER EXECUTION (J3): FORCE PROTECTION AND DISPERSAL.

   • Action: Immediate confirmation of the 7-B MOD operational status. If movement is confirmed, instruct the command element to increase speed and prioritize short-term dispersal over route clearance stability.
   • Action: If CRITICAL-1 indicates significant attrition or route blockage, authorize localized UAF Air Force FPV/EW units to act as decoys or suppression against confirmed RF forward observation points (FPV control stations, Spetsnaz teams), accepting high attrition for these smaller assets to protect the main reserve body.
   • Rationale: The threat environment (KAB/FPV) is too severe for conventional protected movement. Must trade low-value assets for high-value reserve survival.

2. AIR DEFENSE (J-FIRE / AIR FORCE): BALLISTIC PRIORITY LOCKDOWN.

   • Action: Reiterate the CRITICAL ORDER to conserve high-value interceptors (Patriot/SAMP-T) for the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike. No expenditure of high-value munitions on Shahed/Geran or CAS until the ballistic threat window has passed.
   • Action: Ensure mobile SHORAD (e.g., Gepard, Avenger) are positioned to defend the alternate C2 nodes and logistics hubs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast away from the immediate front line, acknowledging the high confidence in the strategic missile strike target set.
   • Rationale: Preventing C2 decapitation NLT 240000Z is the highest priority operational task.

3. OPERATIONAL C2 (J2/J3): ADDRESSING THE SOUTHERN DILEMMA.

   • Action: Do not divert 7-B MOD assets to address the Zatishye/Stepnohirsk crisis until CRITICAL-2 is confirmed. Assign local territorial defense units or Southern Command (SC) reserves to contain the threat.
   • Rationale: The Pokrovsk crisis (GLOC severance) is the immediate operational center of gravity. Allowing RF to successfully create a crisis in the South and draw away the only reserve force would achieve the MDCOA.

//END SITREP//