Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 241320Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 241250Z NOV 25 – 241319Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (CRITICAL CULMINATION) / DNIPROPETROVSK (LOGISTICS DISRUPTION) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-5 (OPERATIONAL PARALYSIS: IMMINENT) KEY DECISION POINT: T-10 minutes to Plan 7-B MOD Launch (241330Z)

---

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational crisis around Pokrovsk is now critically time-compressed. The enemy (RF) has achieved maximum synchronization between battlefield claims (Mirnohrad encirclement) and high-level diplomatic deception (Geneva/Trump plan IO). The National Command Authority (NCA) confirmation of awaiting the Geneva report (12:59Z) indicates a successful RF maneuver to induce strategic hesitation, placing the Plan 7-B MOD launch (241330Z) under extreme risk of abort or disastrous delay. Immediate, decisive commitment is required to avoid operational collapse.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): RF sources (Pro-Russian MilBlogger) claim UAF forces are encircled in Mirnohrad (13:01Z).
  • JUDGMENT: This claim is UNCONFIRMED (LOW CONFIDENCE) but indicates RF intent to psychologically and kinetically sever the defensive line linking Pokrovsk and Rodynske, maximizing the threat to the T-0515 GLOC corridor.
• Deep Rear (RF Homeland): Confirmed escalation of UAF deep strikes. RF sources claim 8 UAVs intercepted targeting Moscow (12:59Z). Air Raid warning (Air Danger Regime) announced in Lipetsk Oblast (13:13Z), indicating UAF deep strike extension.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

No significant change. Favorable for deep UAV operations (UAF) and precision attacks (RF).

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The EW/QRF vanguard for the 7-B MOD movement remains uncommitted as of 241320Z. The failure to commit these protective elements means the main convoy faces near-certain interdiction risk upon launch.

2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: RF continues to demonstrate capacity for simultaneous local culmination (Pokrovsk/Mirnohrad) and strategic IO, buttressed by persistent deep strike capability (Pavlohrad). RF is actively reinforcing its manpower base via PMC recruitment (Wagner Istra) and specialized reservist mobilization (SMD critical infrastructure defense). INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-10 minutes):

1. Kinetic Interdiction: Exploit confirmed proximity to the T-0515 corridor, leveraging forward observation (FPV, Spetsnaz) to target any movement along the GLOC beginning NLT 241330Z.
2. Strategic Paralysis: Leverage the NCA wait-and-see posture (waiting for Geneva report) via persistent amplification of the "Trump Plan" / "American Proposal" peace narrative, forcing the NCA to choose diplomacy over kinetic military action. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

• Manpower Focus: Renewed, targeted recruitment for specific Wagner PMC units (Legion Wagner Istra, 13:05Z) alongside state reports of using convicts and mobilizing reservists for homeland AD/infrastructure defense.
  • JUDGMENT: This adaptation shows RF is prioritizing protection of its strategic rear while simultaneously employing PMCs to absorb high attrition rates on the frontline axes (Pokrovsk). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• IO Synchronization: RF successfully leveraged the US peace proposal (claimed by Kremlin via Erdoğan, 12:55Z/13:17Z) immediately following UAF deep strikes, achieving a high degree of cognitive integration.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain strained by deep UAF strikes (Moscow, Lipetsk), forcing the defensive mobilization of reservists (13:16Z). However, RF operational tempo on the Pokrovsk axis remains high, suggesting critical logistics (fuel, ammunition) are locally secured.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly effective in unifying kinetic and cognitive domains. The ability to coordinate diplomatic pressure (Kremlin readout) exactly parallel to the critical Pokrovsk maneuver timeline is a clear indicator of superior cross-domain synchronization.

3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Critical. Forward units in the Pokrovsk sector are vulnerable to envelopment if the Mirnohrad claim has any basis in fact. The strategic reserve (7-B MOD) remains immobile. READINESS: Tactical units continue effective counter-fire (UAV strikes on RF territory). However, NCA C2 decisiveness is compromised by the IO campaign.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESSES: Persistent deep strike campaign (Moscow, Lipetsk) confirms RF homeland vulnerability. High-level diplomatic coordination maintained (Norway PM call, 12:56Z). SETBACKS (CRITICAL): NCA hesitation concerning the Geneva report delays immediate operational commitment required for 7-B MOD. Confirmed RF success in damaging rear logistics (Pavlohrad, 3 casualties, 13:03Z).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CONSTRAINT: The primary constraint is TIME and the NCA’s willingness to disregard the ongoing IO. The 241330Z decision point is 10 minutes away. REQUIREMENT: Execution of Plan 7-B MOD vanguard NOW and a simultaneous, unified StratCom denial.

4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF IO focus is now triple-layered:

1. Strategic Paralysis (High): Specific framing of the "US/Trump Peace Plan" as a legitimate basis for settlement (12:55Z, 13:17Z), designed to legitimize the diplomatic option and paralyze kinetic decisions.
2. Psychological Warfare (Local): Claims of Mirnohrad encirclement (13:01Z) intended to degrade morale of forward defenders and convince UAF command the GLOC is already lost.
3. Internal Friction (Medium): Highlighting UAF/Czech corruption over UAV procurement (12:52Z).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Public sentiment is being tested by synchronized bad news: confirmed kinetic attacks on logistics hubs (Pavlohrad) and highly sensitive diplomatic rumors (Geneva delegation returning, 12:59Z). Belarusian leader Lukashenko's statement (13:11Z) that the conflict will end soon reinforces the RF narrative of inevitable strategic success.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

Ukrainian communication with Norway (12:56Z) confirms active efforts to solidify support. However, the international community's focus on the "Geneva/Trump" peace discussions may reduce diplomatic pressure on Russia and complicate future aid deliveries if the perception of a viable off-ramp persists.

5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 10 Minutes (241320Z - 241330Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Dedicated IO Climax: RF state media and proxies will release a final, highly impactful piece of information (e.g., specific terms of the 'peace plan' or an alleged ceasefire timeline) NLT 241330Z to compel an abort of the 7-B MOD launch.
2. GLOC Observation/Targeting: RF forces near Pokrovsk (confirmed suburbs) will finalize targeting coordinates for pre-positioned ATGM/FPV assets focused on the T-0515 corridor, awaiting the launch window.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE - ESCALATED) The NCA delays the 7-B MOD launch pending the Geneva report. RF forces, potentially utilizing claimed encirclement of Mirnohrad, exploit the operational void by expanding their control over the T-0515/M-30 GLOCs. The subsequent NLT 240000Z ballistic strike successfully disables key C2 nodes (Dnipropetrovsk), preventing coordination of any belated reserve movement, resulting in the severance of the Pokrovsk sector and a controlled retreat.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS - EXTREMELY HIGH RISK)

---

6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

---

7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The focus is no longer on safe movement, but on movement at any cost. C2 must prioritize speed and audacity to overcome the psychological barrier created by the IO.

1. MANEUVER EXECUTION (J3): LAUNCH VANGUARD IMMINENTLY.

   • Action: Immediately task the EW/QRF vanguard to deploy along the T-0515 GLOC with a mandatory mission focus on deep electronic suppression and kinetic distraction/baiting, not clearance.
   • Action: If Mirnohrad encirclement (CRITICAL-1) is confirmed NLT 241330Z, divert Plan 7-B MOD main body immediately onto the pre-planned Secondary, Redundant GLOC. The risk of delay due to verified encirclement outweighs the navigation risk of dirt tracks.
   • Rationale: The time is too short for clearance. EW is the only remaining shield. Assume the primary route is already compromised.

2. STRATCOM / C2 (NCA LNO): IMMEDIATE PUBLIC COMMITMENT.

   • Action: The NCA must issue a Strategic Denial Statement NLT 241325Z. This statement must simultaneously: (a) Denounce the RF peace efforts as a kinetic cover operation (citing Pavlohrad casualties and Moscow strikes); and (b) Publicly confirm the "Immediate Commitment of Strategic Reserves" (Plan 7-B MOD) to stabilize the frontline.
   • Rationale: This preemptive, transparent commitment is the only way to nullify the IO-induced paralysis and stabilize both domestic and international confidence before the 13:30Z decision point.

3. FIRE SUPPORT (J-FIRE): HARD COUNTER-BATTERY/FLANK FIRE.

   • Action: Focus all available heavy artillery and MLRS systems (HIMARS, M270) currently covering the Pokrovsk axis onto pre-identified RF forward observation and heavy weapons positions (HVP) immediately west and north of Mirnohrad/Rodynske (Map Grid References 43-X/44-Y). Execute an Artillery Preparation Fire (ARP) 241320Z - 241330Z to saturate suspected interdiction zones just prior to the 7-B MOD launch.
   • Rationale: Provide a localized suppressive environment to cover the most dangerous part of the convoy movement.

//END SITREP//