Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 241220Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 241130Z NOV 25 – 241220Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (CRITICAL CULMINATION) / HULIAIPOLE (DEFENSE STABILIZATION) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-4 (OPERATIONAL DECISIVENESS: IMMEDIATE)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The enemy (RF) continues to capitalize on kinetic and cognitive synchronization. Confirmed visual evidence substantiates enemy maneuver element presence in the Pokrovsk urban periphery, placing the T-0515 GLOC under sustained, direct interdiction threat. Simultaneously, UAF operational depth targeting (Moscow, Syzran, Crimea) is confirmed, potentially creating a counter-pressure but not immediately alleviating the frontline crisis. The critical window for Plan 7-B MOD launch preparation is closing, demanding immediate commitment of force protection assets.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): RF sources (TASS/RV War Correspondents, 11:56Z) released video evidence of combat in the Shakhtarsky and Hornyak micro-districts.
  • FACT: RF forces (likely Tsentr Grouping) have penetrated the outer defenses and are fighting within established urban areas of Pokrovsk.
  • JUDGMENT: This confirms active kinetic engagement within 5km of the planned Plan 7-B MOD transit corridor (T-0515). The risk of precision interdiction and short-range fire on the route is MAXIMUM. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
• Deep Rear (Operational Offset): Confirmed successful UAV strikes deep into RF territory, including Moscow (4 drones downed, 12:04Z) and Syzran (increased casualty count to 3, 12:19Z).
  • JUDGMENT: UAF maintains the ability to dictate the tempo in the deep operational rear, forcing RF Air Defense (AD) assets to prioritize homeland security over frontline force protection. This creates potential windows for UAF tactical air/UAV operations near the Line of Contact (LOC). (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions favor RF ISR platforms and FPV drone proliferation along the T-0515 axis. UAF deep strike execution is unaffected.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

The commitment of EW and security assets to the T-0515 corridor is the single most critical control measure pending implementation. Failure to commit protection assets NLT 241145Z (as previously recommended) increases the risk of massed interdiction during the 241330Z launch window.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: Demonstrated continued ability to execute simultaneous conventional operations (Pokrovsk/Huliaipole), strategic fires (NLT 240000Z), and internal security (FSB counter-sabotage in Altai, 12:10Z). INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-2 hours):

1. Block/Disrupt T-0515: Intensify low-level harassing fire (Snipers, FPV, light mortars) along the T-0515 corridor, leveraging confirmed positions in Shakhtarsky/Hornyak to prevent the successful organization and launch of Plan 7-B MOD.
2. Psychological Warfare: RF commentators (12:08Z) continue to amplify the diplomatic chaos, aiming to foster command paralysis in Kyiv.
3. AD Response: RF AD assets will remain committed to Moscow/Syzran defense, but this distraction is temporary. Assets may be shifted back to the front immediately following the NLT 240000Z strike period.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF adaptation focuses on rapid, deep penetration into Pokrovsk urban terrain, bypassing conventional consolidation areas to seize key GLOCs immediately. This confirms a priority on speed over consolidation efficiency.

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain strained by deep UAF targeting (Crimea BDA, 12:14Z) and domestic threats (Syzran). However, frontline forces maintain sufficient sustainment for the current tempo.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 remains highly integrated strategically, synchronizing kinetic attacks with IO maneuvers. Domestic security focus (Altai FSB, 12:10Z) confirms that RF C2 is managing multiple internal/external threats simultaneously.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: UAF is defensively postured at the operational level (Pokrovsk/Huliaipole) but offensively active at the strategic depth level (UAV strikes). The critical vulnerability remains the T-0515 corridor clearance. READINESS: Frontline forces are under extreme pressure. Maintaining communication security and situational awareness is paramount to prevent kinetic confusion from amplifying the RF IO campaign.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESSES: Confirmed kinetic and casualty infliction on critical RF infrastructure and deep logistics (Syzran, Moscow, Crimea). UAF StratCom is maintaining the legal/accountability counter-narrative (PGO meeting, 12:10Z). SETBACKS (CRITICAL): Enemy forces are confirmed inside Pokrovsk suburbs, validating the intelligence forecast of GLOC severance risk.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CONSTRAINT: Time (T-minus 1 hour 10 minutes until Plan 7-B MOD Launch Decision Point). REQUIREMENT: Immediate deployment of mobile short-range EW (e.g., electronic warfare truck/vehicle systems) and dedicated QRF (Quick Reaction Force) to aggressively clear the T-0515 route.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO continues to focus on:

1. Diplomatic Fiasco: Amplifying the widespread confusion surrounding international peace initiatives (Fighterbomber, 12:08Z; RBC-Ukraine/Trump, 12:09Z). This successfully reinforces the internal narrative of Western abandonment and strategic uncertainty in Kyiv.
2. Unstoppable Advance: Utilizing high-quality video (TASS/RV, 11:56Z) to confirm the seizure of Pokrovsk suburbs, projecting inevitable victory.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF morale is stressed by the synchronization of bad news (frontline losses) and strategic confusion (peace talks). The NCA's immediate, confident denial and transition to operational action (Plan 7-B MOD launch) remains the only effective morale intervention.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

International diplomatic support for war crimes accountability remains steady (PGO/Denmark meeting, 12:10Z). The key diplomatic vulnerability is the continued projection of confusion from US political circles regarding peace plans, feeding the RF deception strategy.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4 Hours (241220Z - 241620Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. GLOC Contestation (T-0515): RF forces will commit highly mobile light forces (ATGM teams, FPV spotters) from Pokrovsk suburbs to generate continuous, lethal friction on the T-0515 corridor, aiming to deter or delay the Plan 7-B MOD launch.
2. Huliaipole Suppression: Sustained heavy fire preparation (Artillery/KAB) continues around Huliaipole to suppress UAF counter-battery fire and C2 elements, enabling the mechanized thrust planned for the evening (NLT 241800Z).
3. Ballistic Strike Preparation: RF AD assets will likely be repositioned following the peak hours of UAF deep UAV activity (observed Moscow/Syzran strikes) to maximize protective coverage for the NLT 240000Z launch window.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The RF successfully utilizes FPV drones and precision artillery strikes to destroy multiple high-value vehicles (EW or C2) in the vanguard of the Plan 7-B MOD convoy during its high-risk launch phase (241330Z). The resulting GLOC block and cascade failure forces the operational reserve movement to abort. Simultaneously, the RF Vostok Grouping launches its mechanized assault on Huliaipole, achieving a rapid breakthrough before the planned NLT 240000Z ballistic strike.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS - UNCHANGED)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The transition from strategic planning to tactical execution is now fully underway under fire. The focus must be on Force Protection and Speed for Plan 7-B MOD.

1. MANEUVER EXECUTION (J3): MAXIMIZE CORRIDOR PROTECTION.

   • Action: Immediately dedicate and launch all available mobile EW platforms (e.g., electronic warfare vehicle systems) as the absolute vanguard of the Plan 7-B MOD convoy, providing a continuously moving, high-power electronic suppression shield.
   • Action: Utilize dedicated heavy indirect fire assets (Artillery/MLRS) to provide immediate, pre-planned Emergency Suppression Fires (ESF) on coordinates corresponding to the confirmed RF presence in Shakhtarsky/Hornyak (Pokrovsk suburbs) during the 241330Z launch window. Accept collateral damage risk.
   • Rationale: The threat to the GLOC is confirmed kinetic. Protection must be mobile and overwhelming to suppress FPV/ATGM threats.

2. FIRE SUPPORT (J-FIRE): EXPLOIT RF AD VULNERABILITY.

   • Action: If CRITICAL (2) indicates reduced RF short-range AD density near Pokrovsk (due to Moscow/Syzran focus), authorize the use of UAF fixed-wing Close Air Support (CAS) or long-range attack drones to strike identified RF forward armor concentration points near Rodynske.
   • Rationale: Leverage the RF AD distraction in the deep rear to mitigate pressure on the immediate GLOC threat, supporting the Plan 7-B MOD movement.

3. STRATCOM / C2 (J7 / NCA LNO): NO RETROGRADE IO.

   • Action: Ensure all military command announcements and official communications cease all reference to peace talks or diplomatic windows. The narrative must now be 100% focused on military determination, operational capability (Plan 7-B MOD is moving), and enemy deceit.
   • Rationale: Prevent the RF IO (Trump quotes, multiple peace plans) from causing any further C2 hesitancy or operational paralysis during this critical phase.

//END SITREP//