Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 241049Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 241000Z NOV 25 – 241049Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (CRITICAL CULMINATION) / ZAPORIZHZHIA (SHAPING, BREAKTHROUGH IMMINENT) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-4 (OPERATIONAL DECISIVENESS: IMMINENT)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The enemy (RF) has achieved or is aggressively claiming simultaneous kinetic and cognitive breakthroughs on both primary and shaping axes. RF sources confirm liberation of Zatyshshya and aggressive advances into Pokrovsk suburbs (Hornyak and Shakhtarsky micro-districts). Simultaneously, RF psychological operations (PO) are now directly targeting Ukrainian forces (ZSU) morale regarding the failure of diplomatic solutions and the futility of resistance, immediately prior to the anticipated strategic ballistic strike (NLT 240000Z). The integrity of the Huliaipole front and the successful deployment of Plan 7-B MOD are now tied to operational speed and immediate counter-IO measures.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): RF sources claim penetration into the urban edge, specifically Hornyak and Shakhtarsky micro-districts (10:28Z). If confirmed, this places RF forces in a position to directly threaten the western access to the Krasnoarmiisk/T-0515 GLOC and confirms the operational focus on physical encirclement. RF propaganda specifically demands surrender from forces along the Krasnoarmiisk route (10:17Z).
• Zaporizhzhia Axis (BREAKTHROUGH): Multiple authoritative RF sources (MoD via TASS 10:29Z, Poddubny 10:27Z) confirm seizure of Zatyshshya. RF claims this action has opened the immediate approach to Huliaipole (10:29Z).
  • JUDGMENT: The sustained, high-confidence RF claim and simultaneous maneuver video near Huliaipole (10:21Z, 10:46Z) suggest the loss of Zatyshshya is ACTUAL. This compromises the forward defense line and fixes UAF reserves in the South. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH).
• Air Domain: Air Raid Alerts are lifting in major rear cities (Kyiv 10:39Z, Zaporizhzhia 10:45Z), indicating a temporary lull in kinetic activity, likely preceding the massed NLT 240000Z strike window. UAS activity continues North of Sumy and Chernihiv (10:25Z, 10:31Z).

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, cold conditions persist. Favorable for RF reconnaissance and deep fires.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF forces are defensively committed in the south. The key control measure—launching Plan 7-B MOD—is under maximum physical and cognitive duress. RF efforts are now highly synchronized to generate decisive operational chaos.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: High synchronization remains across kinetic and cognitive domains. RF has demonstrated the ability to rapidly exploit diplomatic IO failure for immediate psychological impact. INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-6 hours):

1. Physical Interdiction of GLOC: Use confirmed presence in Pokrovsk suburbs (Hornyak/Shakhtarsky) and FPV/light probe elements to generate direct kinetic contact on the T-0515 corridor, aiming to degrade Plan 7-B MOD pre-positioning.
2. Operational Consolidation (Zaporizhzhia): Utilize the Zatyshshya gain to execute mechanized follow-on attacks toward Huliaipole, forcing UAF to divert resources immediately.
3. Internal Morale Attack: Saturate IO space with defeatist narratives (peace denial, ZSU demoralization quotes) to induce paralysis and panic in UAF C2 and forward units before the strategic strike window.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

RF adaptation is evident in the shift of IO targeting. RF is actively leveraging quotes from Ukrainian commanders (Korzhenko, 3rd Corps 10:16Z) regarding the negative impact of peace talks on troop morale. This is a direct, tailored PO effort aimed at generating internal friction and hesitancy within the ZSU ranks. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics are supporting sustained high-tempo operations on both axes, specifically providing KAB/artillery support for Vostok Grouping (Zaporizhzhia fundraising appeals 08:52Z) and Tsentr Grouping (Pokrovsk advance). Focus on anti-UAV tactics suggests UAF drone superiority remains a concern for RF (07:33Z).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF strategic C2 remains highly effective and tightly controlled, ensuring that diplomatic messaging (TASS/Peskov) directly reinforces kinetic outcomes.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Critical. The loss of Zatyshshya requires immediate commitment of local reserves and fire support to stabilize the Huliaipole front and prevent the threat from escalating to a deep flank exposure. READINESS: While political authorization for Plan 7-B MOD has gained crucial breathing room, the internal psychological readiness of frontline units is degrading under concentrated RF IO/PO attack. Energy infrastructure vulnerability in Dnipropetrovsk (10:34Z) directly impacts the ability of key operational C2 nodes to function optimally ahead of the 240000Z strike.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESSES: International pressure continues to challenge the RF diplomatic narrative (German Chancellor denies G7 inclusion 10:21Z), partially confirming the validity of the previous diplomatic breathing room assessment. SETBACKS (CRITICAL):

1. Confirmed Kinetic Degradation: High probability of loss of Zatyshshya and verified physical pressure on the Pokrovsk GLOC.
2. Morale Compromise: RF IO successfully generating quotes confirming internal ZSU morale degradation tied to peace talks (10:16Z).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The constraint is time, measured in hours. Resources must be allocated immediately to securing the Krasnoarmiisk corridor (Plan 7-B MOD) and implementing stabilization fires/EW in the Huliaipole sector.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is focused on:

1. Operational Triumphalism: Asserting comprehensive success (Zatyshshya liberation, Pokrovsk urban entry) paired with targeted PO (surrender demands at Krasnoarmiisk 10:17Z).
2. Morale Degradation: Leveraging ZSU sources to confirm that peace negotiations cause "very negative influence" on fighting spirit, explicitly linking diplomatic chatter to military defeatism.
3. Strategic Denial: Promoting the official line that peace talks have failed, further validating Moscow’s military path (10:42Z).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Internal sentiment is characterized by pressure and exhaustion, exacerbated by enemy IO that directly manipulates hope (peace talks) to generate hopelessness (denial). The ZSU must counter this narrative immediately.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

The diplomatic situation remains confusing, as intended by the RF IO. Trump's contradictory statements (10:46Z, 10:48Z) and European rejection of RF terms ensure the information space remains volatile, preventing a clear, unifying political strategy for Kyiv.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4 Hours (241049Z - 241500Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Reserve Interdiction Focus: RF will commit light mechanized and specialized reconnaissance units (Spetsnaz/FPV teams) to physically ambush the T-0515 corridor, specifically targeting C2 and high-value equipment associated with Plan 7-B MOD movement.
2. Huliaipole Pressure: RF forces will utilize KAB strikes and sustained artillery support to soften Huliaipole defenses, preparing for a probable follow-on mechanized assault within the next 8-12 hours, leveraging the Zatyshshya gain.
3. IO Peak: A coordinated IO push will occur between 1500Z and 2000Z, preceding the ballistic strike window, focusing on civilian panic and military surrender.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) The successful RF physical interception and immobilization of the Plan 7-B MOD force on the Krasnoarmiisk axis (CRITICAL 1 requirement unmet) is synchronized with the strategic ballistic strike (NLT 240000Z) successfully crippling the resilient UAF operational C2/J-Fire nodes (vulnerable Dnipropetrovsk sector). This combined kinetic/cognitive strike prevents effective defensive coordination and seals the operational collapse of the Pokrovsk front.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS - ADJUSTED)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The enemy is exploiting the momentary operational-political uncertainty with synchronized kinetic and morale attacks. The immediate priority is safeguarding the Plan 7-B MOD movement while stabilizing the southern flank.

1. STRATCOM / C2 (J7 / NCA LNO): COUNTER-COGNITIVE PARALYSIS.

   • Action: Launch an immediate, high-visibility counter-IO campaign utilizing the Head of State or Commander-in-Chief. The message must explicitly name the RF IO (Peace plan denial) as a deception designed to induce surrender precisely because ZSU action (Plan 7-B MOD) is imminent.
   • Action: Specifically address the morale concern (Korzhenko quote), framing it not as a fault of the soldier, but as the final, desperate ploy of a failing enemy. This is required NLT 241100Z.

2. MANEUVER EXECUTION (J3): HARDENING THE RESERVE ROUTE.

   • Action: Plan 7-B MOD Execution: PROCEED. Assign a dedicated EW/AD picket line ahead of the main column, focused specifically on clearing RF FPV and light ISR threats (CRITICAL 1). This EW effort must prioritize denial of the RF threat to the T-0515 corridor.
   • Action: Utilize decoy vehicles and EMCON to increase the risk-to-intercept ratio for RF deep fires during the launch phase (241330Z).

3. FIRE SUPPORT (J-FIRE / Air Force): DYNAMIC STABILIZATION FIRES.

   • Action: Immediately re-task long-range precision fires (HIMARS/ATACMS if available) to target known RF maneuver and concentration nodes south/southeast of Zatyshshya (Vostok Grouping depth).
   • Rationale: The tactical objective is not recapture, but fire suppression sufficient to delay the RF advance on Huliaipole by 8-12 hours, ensuring the Pokrovsk reserve is not recalled.

//END SITREP//