Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 241000Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 240930Z NOV 25 – 241000Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AXES: POKROVSK (MAIN EFFORT, CRITICAL) / ZAPORIZHZHIA (SHAPING, INTENSIFYING) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-3 (OPERATIONAL DECISIVENESS: CRITICAL)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The enemy (RF) is executing a synchronized shift in its multi-domain strategy. Tactically, RF pressure is intensifying on the Zaporizhzhia shaping axis with a confirmed territorial claim at Zatyshshya. Cognitively, the RF has pivoted its diplomatic Information Operation (IO) from promoting a fake "Geneva Peace Framework" to overtly rejecting talks, aiming to reinforce the narrative of inevitable military defeat in the Pokrovsk sector ahead of the anticipated strategic ballistic strike (NLT 240000Z). UAF command benefits from a reported easing of external diplomatic timelines, providing crucial breathing room for the execution of Plan 7-B MOD.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis (CRITICAL): Status Quo from 0930Z. Krasnoarmiisk and the GLOC corridor (T-0515) remain under deep RF information and physical interdiction threat. RF is seeking to confirm kinetic contact to reinforce the 'encirclement' narrative.
• Zaporizhzhia Axis (SHAPING): RF Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims to have "liberated" Zatyshshya (09:43Z). Pro-RF sources confirm major offensive action by "Vostok Grouping" towards Huliaipole (09:20Z), supported by sustained use of Guided Aerial Bombs (KAB) (09:26Z).
  • JUDGMENT: The confirmed loss of Zatyshshya (if validated by UAF) significantly compromises UAF defensive posture on the Huliaipole/Orikhiv front, successfully diverting UAF operational attention and fixing Southern reserves. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH for RF intent, MEDIUM for territorial claim validity).
• Kharkiv/Northeast Axis (ECONOMY): UAF Air Force reports Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) moving northeast over Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (09:20Z), likely reconnaissance or preparatory assets for follow-on strike waves.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear and cold conditions persist. Favorable for RF Fixed-Wing (FW) operations and long-range ISR/strike delivery systems.

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

UAF requires immediate verification of the Zatyshshya claim. RF maneuver elements are successfully pressuring the operational flanks, allowing the main effort (Pokrovsk collapse) to proceed under maximum cognitive pressure.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

CAPABILITY: RF C2 maintains high synchronization across multiple domains (Kinetic shaping, Strategic denial, Ballistic strike preparation). INTENTION (IMMEDIATE, 0-6 hours):

1. Reinforce Defeat Narrative: Leverage the kinetic success at Zatyshshya and the rejection of all peace talks (09:31Z) to convince UAF forward elements and the NCA that continued resistance on the Pokrovsk axis is futile, precipitating a pre-strike collapse.
2. Set conditions for Ballistic Strike: Maintain AD posture (as indicated by previous reporting) and continue KAB strikes in the Zaporizhzhia region to suppress UAF Air Defense resources ahead of the NLT 240000Z strategic strike window.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

The shift in the RF IO narrative from 'Peace is possible' to 'Peace is rejected' (09:31Z) is a key adaptive measure, intended to remove the political safety net created by the initial diplomatic deception. This confirms the RF believes it has successfully delayed Plan 7-B MOD enough to warrant a maximalist diplomatic stance. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF logistics remain strained internally (DPR health administration issues/propaganda of injured soldiers), but no indicators suggest operational logistics disruption to RF Grouping Vostok or Tsentr forces.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 is highly adaptive and effective in crisis generation. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov's rapid and coordinated denial of US-Ukraine negotiations (09:31Z, 09:35Z) demonstrates tightly controlled strategic messaging.

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive line integrity remains critical at Pokrovsk. The loss of Zatyshshya (if confirmed) necessitates rapid redeployment planning to prevent a cascade failure on the Huliaipole axis. READINESS: Political risk tolerance has improved due to the reported extension/flexibility of the US framework deadline (09:24Z). This removes the critical near-term political constraint that was delaying the high-risk commitment of Plan 7-B MOD.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESSES: International diplomatic pressure on Ukraine is reportedly easing (09:24Z). This success is strategic, directly mitigating the most dangerous operational constraint (NCA paralysis). UAF StratCom has material to discredit RF diplomatic IO efforts (WP confirmation Trump was detached 09:19Z). SETBACKS: Confirmed intensification of RF shaping operations, culminating in the reported loss of Zatyshshya (09:43Z).

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

The constraint remains the time window before 240000Z. Resources (EW, C-UAS, and rapid maneuver capacity) must now be split between clearing the Krasnoarmiisk corridor for Plan 7-B MOD and stabilizing the Huliaipole axis.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

RF IO is focused on:

1. Diplomatic Isolation: Claiming EU fears being excluded from US talks (09:20Z).
2. Defeatism: Explicitly denying the possibility of negotiations (09:31Z, 09:35Z) to remove hope and reinforce the necessity of surrender in the face of the kinetic offensive.
3. Internal Legitimacy: Pushing narratives of domestic prosperity (Moscow gaming night 09:30Z) and support for wounded soldiers (09:30Z) while administrative problems persist (DPR healthcare, previous SITREP).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Ukrainian information space is actively disseminating reports discrediting the US peace plan as a viable, detailed policy (09:19Z, 09:21Z), which helps inoculate against the initial RF IO objective. Distribution of "Winter Support" aid (09:21Z) attempts to stabilize domestic morale.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

• CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT: US deadline pressure on Ukraine is now reported as "more flexible" (09:24Z). This significantly reduces the immediate political risk associated with launching a major military operation (Plan 7-B MOD). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4 Hours (241000Z - 241400Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Pokrovsk Interdiction: RF Spetsnaz/deep ISR elements will increase ground activity (FPV/light probing attacks) to physically interdict tertiary routes west of Krasnoarmiisk, seeking high-value targets related to Plan 7-B MOD pre-positioning.
2. Zaporizhzhia Consolidation: RF forces will consolidate positions at Zatyshshya and launch follow-on mechanized assaults against UAF defensive lines closer to Huliaipole to lock UAF reserves in place.
3. IO Blitz: RF will launch a final, highly aggressive IO campaign combining the rejection of peace talks, claims of imminent Pokrovsk collapse, and tactical combat footage from Zaporizhzhia (Zatyshshya) prior to the strategic strike window.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF kinetic forces achieve a successful deep strike against Plan 7-B MOD logistics or C2 elements operating near Krasnoarmiisk (CRITICAL 1 requirement unmet). Simultaneously, the massed ballistic strike (NLT 240000Z) successfully penetrates AD and disrupts critical joint fires coordination centers in the operational rear. The failure to launch the reserve effectively and the simultaneous decapitation strike leads to an operational collapse on the Pokrovsk axis and the strategic loss of the Donetsk Operational Area.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The easing of the diplomatic timeline provides a non-recurring window of opportunity to launch Plan 7-B MOD. Command must accept calculated tactical risk on the Southern flank to achieve operational survival at Pokrovsk.

1. STRATEGIC C2 (J3 / NCA LNO): EXPLOIT DIPLOMATIC OPPORTUNITY.

   • Action: Immediately leverage the reported US deadline flexibility (09:24Z) to neutralize internal political hesitation. Provide the NCA with a consolidated briefing defining the RF denial of peace talks (09:31Z) as confirmation that military action (Plan 7-B MOD) is the only viable path.
   • Rationale: The political constraint is temporarily weakened. Full authority for the reserve launch must be secured immediately.

2. MANEUVER EXECUTION (J3): HIGH-SPEED RESERVE DEPLOYMENT.

   • Action: EXECUTE PLAN 7-B MOD NOW. Prioritize speed and EW coverage over perfect security on the approach to Krasnoarmiisk. The main body must be moving before 241330Z to pre-position for the night operations and avoid the 240000Z strike window while static.
   • Action: Commit dedicated aviation or heavy C-UAS/EW assets to the T-0515 corridor (CRITICAL 1) immediately to clear RF ISR/FPV teams ahead of the main column.

3. FIRE SUPPORT (J-FIRE / Air Force): COUNTER-SHAPING RESPONSE.

   • Action: Increase long-range fires and counter-battery targeting against known RF heavy artillery and Forward Operating Bases (FOBs) in the Vostok Grouping's depth, focusing specifically on axes leading into Huliaipole and Zatyshshya to slow consolidation.
   • Rationale: Retaliatory kinetic pressure is necessary to prevent the Southern axis from becoming a full operational crisis while the focus is on Pokrovsk.

//END SITREP//