Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 240500Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 240400Z NOV 25 – 240500Z NOV 25 (CRITICAL C2 VULNERABILITY WINDOW) OPERATIONAL AXIS: POKROVSK AXIS (M-30/T-05-15 GLOC) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-2 (C2 FRAGMENTATION RISK: EXTREME)

1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational situation remains defined by a synchronized Russian Federation (RF) multi-domain attack targeting the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) Command and Control (C2) during the execution of Plan 7-B MOD dispersal. RF Electronic Warfare (EW) pressure persists at maximum output, while Information Operations (IO) have intensified with specific, localized psychological operations (PSYOPS) designed to induce panic among operational reserves near Krasnoarmiisk. UAF defense remains stable but is currently undergoing the highest stress test on decentralized command protocols (Mission Command).

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis: Primary kinetic objective remains the interdiction and physical severance of the M-30/T-05-15 Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) near Rodynske. The immediate rear area (Krasnoarmiisk) is now a primary cognitive objective due to RF PSYOPS targeting (TASS 0438Z).
• UAV Activity: Confirmed RF Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) presence (likely Shahed/Geran 2) tracking west toward Lozova (Donetsk/Kharkiv Oblast junction), indicating sustained deep strike targeting of logistical or C2 infrastructure in the eastern rear.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, stable weather persists. This ensures optimal conditions for high-altitude RF Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) assets and maximizes the efficacy of high-power EW jamming systems. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: EW assets confirmed active. Forward elements of 40th/155th Separate Marine Brigades (OMBR) maintain aggressive reconnaissance (RECCE) preparation for follow-on attacks. UAF (Plan 7-B MOD): Forces are dispersed and adhering to EMCON Level 2 protocols. The defense is currently reliant on pre-planned indirect fires and decentralized decision-making.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action

Capability: RF is confirmed capable of simultaneous high-power EW, precision kinetic engagement, and targeted, localized PSYOPS dissemination synchronized to kinetic activity. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Intention: Induce the localized collapse of UAF C2 integrity in the Pokrovsk sector by coordinating spectral denial (EW), psychological threat magnification (PSYOPS), and aggressive RECCE activity.

Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations: The introduction of specific PSYOPS claiming UAF forces are "fleeing Krasnoarmiisk" (TASS 0438Z) represents a focused effort to target the morale and stability of UAF operational reserves and rear support elements (e.g., logistics, maintenance, and tactical C2 nodes located near this city). This is a precise psychological maneuver during the UAF C2 dispersal vulnerability window. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.2. Logistics and Sustainment Status

Confirmed RF UAV activity targeting the rear (Lozova track) suggests continued robust logistical support for deep strike capabilities (cruise/ballistic/Shahed). Ground logistics for 40th/155th OMBR remain sufficient to support a penetration attempt following C2 fragmentation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

2.3. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 shows high effectiveness in synchronizing kinetic (RECCE/UAV), spectral (EW), and cognitive (TASS/ASTRA PSYOPS) domains. The expansion of ASTRA to platform 'X' (0428Z) confirms proactive adaptation to Western social media environments, increasing dissemination reach. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Defensive consolidation remains highly fragile due to the spectral environment. Readiness is dependent on the effectiveness of decentralized Mission Command protocols. COUNTER-IO SUCCESS: UAF/allied intelligence (РБК-Україна 0428Z) successfully identified and issued a counter-disinformation alert regarding RF attempts to fabricate social media accounts for high-value national leaders (HUR Chief Budanov). This response demonstrates effective defensive security in the leadership cognitive domain. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SETBACK (Cognitive Domain): The aggressive RF PSYOPS regarding Krasnoarmiisk attempts to directly undermine the local tactical initiative and sow seeds of doubt/panic among essential support elements.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Immediate, high-level counter-IO to neutralize the Krasnoarmiisk rout narrative and the broader "93 UAV" claim. CONSTRAINT: Real-time BDA and confirmation of the operational integrity of Plan 7-B MOD elements remains constrained by necessary EMCON adherence (CRITICAL GAP 1).

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF SIOP is operating on three coordinated vectors:

1. Tactical Defeatism: Claims of UAF soldiers fleeing/captured in Krasnoarmiisk (TASS 0438Z). (Actionable threat to morale)
2. Strategic Legitimacy: Highlighting the TASS publication regarding a US analyst's call for NATO to adopt a proxy war strategy (TASS 0448Z, DS Belief: 0.49). This supports the foundational "Geneva Peace Framework" deception by framing NATO/US policy as the cause of continued conflict.
3. High-Value Target Degradation: Fabrication of UAF HVT social media accounts (Budanov alert 0428Z).

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

UAF tactical morale is under extreme pressure from both the EW environment and localized PSYOPS (Krasnoarmiisk). The prompt UAF counter-disinformation regarding HVT deepfakes helps shield key leadership credibility from the strategic IO attack.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF IO continues to focus on shifting the diplomatic narrative away from the Pokrovsk offensive to alleged Western political/strategic aggression (proxy war narrative). This is designed to reduce the political cost of the ongoing military escalation. (CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM)

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

The RF intent to exploit C2 fragmentation remains the dominant factor. The insertion of specific PSYOPS validates the high-risk operational vulnerability predicted earlier.

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4 Hours (240500Z - 240900Z)

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Kinetic/Cognitive Synchronization: RF forward elements (40th/155th OMBR) will launch aggressive, high-profile probing attacks near Rodynske, synchronized with amplified broadcasts (VHF/SW) of the Krasnoarmiisk rout narrative and the 93 UAV interception claim.
2. C2 Decapitation: RF ISR/UAVs will continue high-priority targeting of any C2 signature that breaks EMCON. High-velocity cruise missiles (Kh-101/Kalibr) or concentrated artillery strikes may be authorized against any confirmed C2/J-FIRE location.
3. UAV Strike Sustainment: RF UAVs currently tracked near Lozova will likely strike a C2 node or critical logistical railway junction NLT 240700Z.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF EW successfully isolates Plan 7-B MOD units in key defensive sectors. The Krasnoarmiisk PSYOPS succeeds in creating confusion and hesitancy in the logistical/reserve chain. RF Spetsnaz/mobile groups exploit a failure in decentralized fire coordination (caused by C2 paralysis) to bypass fixed defenses (Rodynske) and establish a foothold on the M-30 GLOC, preventing the successful establishment of the secondary defense line.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The primary tactical imperative is C2 survival, coupled with immediate aggressive counter-IO to negate the RF psychological exploitation of the operational crisis.

1. C2 AND EW DEFENSE (J6 / J3): NEUTRALIZE PSYOPS EFFECT.

   • Action: Immediate dissemination of the Code Word X-RAY (or similar pre-designated confirmation signal) through secure, low-probability-of-intercept (LPI) channels to all Plan 7-B MOD commanders, confirming that Mission Command is active and that any messages claiming routs or withdrawals (specifically Krasnoarmiisk) are confirmed RF deception.
   • Rationale: Directly combat the localized PSYOPS attempt to induce panic and operational paralysis at the unit level.

2. COUNTER-RECCE / GROUND SECURITY (J2 / J3): DENY INTERDICTION.

   • Action: Allocate all available FPV and organic drone assets to establish a 2km denial zone around the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC near Rodynske. Authorize pre-emptive engagement against any detected RF RECCE element (Spetsnaz/light vehicles) NLT 240600Z.
   • Rationale: Ensure physical integrity of the supply line and prevent the RF from confirming gaps caused by C2 confusion.

3. STRATEGIC IO / COUNTER-NARRATIVE (STRATCOM): DEFENSE IN DEPTH.

   • Action: Issue a triple-point denial: 1) Refute the "93 UAV" claim. 2) Explicitly brand the TASS "Krasnoarmiisk rout" story as a "cowardly PSYOPS deception targeting military families." 3) Frame the RF promotion of the NATO proxy war analysis as a desperate attempt to justify their ongoing C2-decapitation campaign.
   • Rationale: Maintain the initiative in the cognitive domain across tactical, operational, and strategic levels.

4. AIR DEFENSE (AIR FORCE / J-3): PROTECT EASTERN REAR C2.

   • Action: Divert a tactical unit of mobile air defense (e.g., Gepard/NASAMS Short-Range) to protect the immediate vicinity of the identified path toward Lozova NLT 240630Z, specifically targeting high-speed UAVs/missile threats, while maintaining the prioritization of anti-ballistic mode for high-value Patriot/SAMP-T batteries against the NLT 240000Z ballistic threat window (now elapsed, focus shifts to high-subsonic threats).
   • Rationale: Protect critical rear infrastructure confirmed as being actively targeted by RF deep assets.

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