Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 240300Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 240223Z NOV 25 – 240300Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AREA: POKROVSK AXIS (CRITICAL / M-30 GLOC SEVERANCE) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-2 (OPERATIONAL FAILURE IMMINENT)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The critical tactical situation on the Pokrovsk Axis persists. UAF reserve maneuver (Plan 7-B MOD) is currently operating within the peak Russian Federation (RF) kinetic threat window (240230Z – 240400Z), characterized by intense Guided Bomb Unit (KAB) strikes and concurrent localized surrender propaganda (PSYOP) near Dimitrov. Confirmed RF counter-drone activity on the Zaporizhzhia front indicates continued commitment to the secondary flanking effort, fixing UAF southern reserves and sustaining the dilemma for UAF High Command.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain (UNCHANGED)

• Pokrovsk Axis: Dimitrov vicinity (T-05-15 route) remains the convergence point where RF kinetic fire, PSYOP, and ground force proximity create maximum risk for Plan 7-B MOD maneuver. The M-30 GLOC is assessed as functionally severed.
• Zaporizhzhia Axis: Orikhiv direction (Stepnohirsk flank) confirms continued kinetic fixation efforts by RF elements.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations (UNCHANGED)

Clear, stable weather maintains optimum conditions for RF tactical aviation (KAB delivery) and ISR/UAS operations. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF elements (40th/155th OMBR) are currently executing maximum effort to interdict the UAF reserve movement. The synchronization of KAB, ground pressure, and PSYOP is confirmed. RF Air Defense (AD) in deep rear areas (e.g., Lipetsk Oblast) demonstrated responsive capabilities against deep UAF penetrations. UAF (Plan 7-B MOD): Currently maneuvering under extreme pressure. IMMEDIATE SHORAD SCREENING IS CRITICAL.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

Capability: RF maintains the capability to execute synchronized deep strike (ballistic, per previous warning NLT 240000Z) while simultaneously conducting highly effective integrated fire and PSYOP at the tactical level (Pokrovsk). They are demonstrating effective AD response to UAF deep strikes. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH) Intention (Next 4 Hours):

1. Annihilate Reserves: Sustain KAB density to destroy Plan 7-B MOD moving elements until 240400Z.
2. C2 Disruption: Immediately follow kinetic pressure with dedicated tactical jamming and propaganda broadcasts targeting UAF tactical C2 nets (as per MLCOA 5.1).
3. Fixation Sustained: Continue counter-drone operations (Orikhiv direction confirmed by D-S) to protect the RF western Stepnohirsk maneuver.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

CONFIRMED COUNTER-UAS ACTIVITY (ZAPORIZHZHIA): RF military bloggers (Operatsiya Z) and D-S analysis confirm RF counter-drone engagement in the Orikhiv/Zaporizhzhia direction. This validates the UAF success in utilizing FPV drones to harass the RF flanking element, but also shows the RF's tactical readiness to counter these platforms. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF KAB cycles and PSYOP distribution are sustained. RF AD posture in the deep rear is dynamic (Lipetsk UAV threat cancellation suggests resources are available and responsive).

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 synchronization remains HIGHLY EFFECTIVE across the kinetic and fixation domains. The coordination between front-line pressure (Pokrovsk) and sustained flanking pressure (Zaporizhzhia) prevents UAF optimization of its limited AD and reserve assets. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Reserves are committed to maneuver under maximum interdiction risk. The priority shifts from maneuver execution to survival and C2 integrity. READINESS: High tactical requirement for psychological resilience and immediate SHORAD coverage.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SUCCESS: UAF deep strike and ISR capabilities were demonstrated, prompting an RF UAV threat cancellation in a deep rear area (Lipetsk), indicating successful diversion of RF resources. SETBACK: Plan 7-B MOD is operating in the peak vulnerability window.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Mobile, immediate-response SHORAD for Plan 7-B MOD. CONSTRAINT: The threat of a coordinated massed ballistic strike (warned NLT 240000Z) consumes high-value interceptor stocks and prevents optimal AD redeployment to the Pokrovsk sector.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns (UNCHANGED CORE THREAT)

The RF multi-domain deception strategy is fully active: Strategic Diplomatic Deception ("Geneva Framework") taxing NCA bandwidth, and Tactical PSYOP (Dimitrov leaflets) aimed at localized demoralization and operational paralysis.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale of forward units remains the immediate target of proximal PSYOP synchronization. C2 integrity remains the key defensive factor against localized collapse.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

New external messaging regarding US-Israeli interceptor production (RBC-Ukraine) provides a long-term positive signal for UAF AD sustainability, but is irrelevant to the immediate tactical crisis. Strategic communications must remain focused on kinetic reality over diplomatic fiction.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Peak KAB Strike Culmination: The RF will continue maximum KAB sortie rates until 240400Z, aiming to score decisive hits on Plan 7-B MOD concentrated elements.
2. C2 Attack Initiation: Starting around 240400Z, the RF will transition to high-power tactical jamming and targeted PSYOP broadcasts (voice/data) over VHF/UHF frequencies near the M-30/T-05-15 corridor, seeking to isolate UAF maneuvering units.
3. Ground Force Close-In: RF 40th/155th OMBR reconnaissance elements will attempt to close the distance to Plan 7-B MOD routes, utilizing UAV observation (confirmed high activity) to guide further precision fire or direct engagement.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF ISR identifies and destroys a concentrated element of Plan 7-B MOD via KAB saturation, while simultaneous tactical jamming isolates the remaining scattered units. The resulting fragmentation, combined with localized surrender propaganda, leads to a critical operational break on the Pokrovsk axis, enabling RF exploitation toward Mirnohrad/Pokrovsk itself.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The critical operational timeline demands immediate defensive action focusing on force protection and cognitive resilience against kinetic/PSYOP synergy.

1. AIR DEFENSE (AIR FORCE / J-3): MAINTAIN SHORAD SCREENING PRIORITY.

   • Action: Confirm that SHORAD assets (Gepard/MANPADS) are actively executing a layered traveling screen protocol and are receiving updated RF KAB approach vectors. Prioritize interception of incoming KAB platforms/munitions above all other AD tasks in the immediate vicinity of Plan 7-B MOD.
   • Rationale: Preventing KAB strikes on the reserves is the single most critical task for operational survival.

2. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER (J3): EXECUTE HARDENED C2 AND COUNTER-PSYOP.

   • Action: Immediate dissemination of an "Ignore and Destroy" order regarding all leaflets and broadcasts to frontline units (secure comms only). Simultaneously, enforce EMCON Level 2 strictly during the transit phase (until 240600Z) to preempt RF jamming. Designate and pre-stage secondary/tertiary (non-RF) communication systems (e.g., Starlink/high-frequency burst comms) for immediate use if jamming is confirmed.
   • Rationale: Prevent unit isolation and fragmentation, which is the operational goal of the RF multi-domain attack.

3. STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE (J2/STRATCOM): DIPLOMATIC IO INOCULATION.

   • Action: Initiate high-speed collection to confirm or deny the NLT 240000Z ballistic strike (CR 2). If confirmed, STRATCOM must immediately pivot messaging to the ongoing slaughter and war crimes coinciding with the "Geneva" fiction, reinforcing the narrative that the diplomatic talk is a cover for kinetic exploitation.
   • Rationale: Maintain strategic focus and prevent NCA distraction during tactical crisis culmination.

//END SITREP//