Situation Report

MILITARY INTELLIGENCE SITUATION REPORT (SITREP)

DTG: 240223Z NOV 25 REPORTING PERIOD: 240200Z NOV 25 – 240223Z NOV 25 OPERATIONAL AREA: POKROVSK AXIS (CRITICAL / M-30 GLOC SEVERANCE) OVERALL THREATCON: CAT-2 (OPERATIONAL FAILURE IMMINENT)

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1. SITUATION OVERVIEW (SIT-SUM)

The operational crisis on the Pokrovsk Axis is rapidly converging from kinetic interdiction to tactical exploitation and psychological operations (PSYOP). RF forces are confirmed to be sustaining heavy aerial bombardment (KABs) while simultaneously deploying surrender propaganda leaflets near Dimitrov, indicating RF ground forces are in close proximity and attempting to consolidate the breach on the M-30/T-05-15 GLOC corridor. The critical task remains the successful maneuver and survivability of Plan 7-B MOD reserves. RF multi-domain synchronization (Air/Ground/IO) is assessed as high and effective.

1.1. Battlefield Geometry and Key Terrain

• Pokrovsk Axis / Dimitrov: The confirmation of leaflet drops targeting UAF positions near Dimitrov (T-05-15 route) places RF influence directly onto the secondary bypass routes planned for Plan 7-B MOD. This shrinks the maneuver space available for the reserves.
• M-30 GLOC: Assessed as physically contested or interdicted. The RF objective is shifting from severance to consolidation.

1.2. Weather and Environmental Factors Affecting Operations

Clear, stable weather continues to provide optimum conditions for RF tactical aviation (KAB delivery) and low-level aerial distribution (leaflet drops/ISR). (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

1.3. Current Force Dispositions and Control Measures

RF: RF elements (40th/155th OMBR) are supported by persistent KAB coverage (Confirmed by UAF Air Force report 240210Z). They are now layering kinetic pressure with localized PSYOPs. UAF (Plan 7-B MOD): Forces are currently engaged in high-risk maneuver protocols against confirmed heavy fire.

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2. ENEMY ANALYSIS (THREAT ASSESSMENT)

2.1. Enemy Capabilities, Intentions, and Courses of Action (COA)

Capability: Demonstrated ability to synchronize high-density KAB strikes (Air Force confirmation) with low-level aerial distribution of PSYOP materials (TASS report on Dimitrov leaflet drop). Intention (Next 4 Hours):

1. Annihilate Reserves: Maintain KAB coverage to destroy Plan 7-B MOD maneuvering elements.
2. Force Localized Collapse: Use proximal surrender propaganda (leaflets) to demoralize or force the surrender of isolated UAF forward units holding key tactical points in the Rodynske/Dimitrov area.
3. Maintain Fixation: Continue UAV activity in the Northern sector (Chernihiv) to prevent AD redeployment.

2.2. Recent Tactical Changes or Adaptations

NEW ADAPTATION (PSYOP/KINETIC SYNCHRONIZATION): The confirmed leaflet drop near Dimitrov signifies the RF believes they have sufficient ground force advantage and localized air superiority to execute high-risk, close-proximity psychological operations. This is a critical indicator of RF confidence in their tactical success. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

2.3. Logistics and Sustainment Status

RF KAB cycle and PSYOP material distribution logistics are assessed as sufficient to sustain the current tempo for the next 12 hours. The ability to drop thousands of leaflets (TASS claim) suggests dedicated light payload distribution systems are operational.

2.4. Command and Control Effectiveness

RF C2 synchronization remains HIGHLY EFFECTIVE. The coordinated execution across the kinetic, fixation, and cognitive domains (Air, North, Pokrovsk leaflets, Diplomatic deception) confirms robust multi-domain integration. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)

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3. FRIENDLY FORCES (BLUE FORCE TRACKING)

3.1. Ukrainian Force Posture and Readiness

POSTURE: Critical defensive maneuver under direct fire and PSYOP targeting. Operational focus must be shifted to unit cohesion and counter-demoralization protocols while moving. READINESS: High. Requires immediate validation of counter-KAB dispersion protocols and reinforcement of C2 links to prevent unit fragmentation resulting from PSYOP/kinetic combination.

3.2. Recent Tactical Successes or Setbacks

SETBACK: The confirmed KAB strike and the proximity of RF ground forces (implied by leaflet distribution) increase the risk profile for Plan 7-B MOD transit to maximum.

3.3. Resource Requirements and Constraints

CRITICAL REQUIREMENT: Mobile, immediate-response SHORAD to screen the movement of Plan 7-B MOD reserves. NEW REQUIREMENT: Immediate dissemination of counter-propaganda/loyalty messaging to units operating in the Dimitrov vicinity to negate the effect of the surrender leaflets.

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4. INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT (COGNITIVE DOMAIN)

4.1. Propaganda and Disinformation Campaigns

The RF is employing a sophisticated, multi-layered deception strategy:

1. Strategic Deception (Diplomatic): The "Geneva Peace Framework" IO is validated and escalated by new narratives claiming a "European counter-proposal." This continues to tax NCA strategic bandwidth. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
2. Operational PSYOP (Dimitrov): Direct military demoralization via leaflet drops (2,000+ leaflets, TASS) designed to force tactical surrenders and consume UAF tactical command resources with Prisoner of War (POW) management/defection concerns. (CONFIDENCE: HIGH)
3. Subversive IO: Specific recruitment propaganda aimed at establishing a collaborator network inside Ukraine. (Colonelcassad, 240203Z).
4. Distraction/Projection IO: RF state media focuses on internal policies (e.g., mobile pharmacies) to project normalcy and stability, diverting attention from the kinetic crisis.

4.2. Public Sentiment and Morale Factors

Morale of forward units near Rodynske/Dimitrov is now directly challenged by proximal surrender messaging synchronized with kinetic annihilation attempts.

4.3. International Support and Diplomatic Developments

RF continues to use the fictitious diplomatic framework to create cognitive dissonance among supporting partners and distract from the current military exploitation in Donetsk.

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5. PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS (FUTURE OPERATIONS)

5.1. Most Likely Enemy Courses of Action (MLCOA) - Next 4 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE)

1. Maximum Interdiction Effort: RF will peak its KAB sortie rate between 240230Z and 240400Z to exploit the confirmed UAF reserve movement.
2. Local PSYOP Escalation: RF will follow the leaflet drop with targeted radio/C2 interference broadcasts offering surrender terms to units in the M-30/T-05-15 corridor, seeking to disrupt C2 of Plan 7-B MOD elements.
3. GLOC Consolidation: RF 40th/155th OMBR will attempt to establish concrete forward observation and fire control points along the GLOC severance area to pre-target follow-on UAF counter-attacks.

5.2. Most Dangerous Enemy Courses of Action (MDCOA) - Next 12 Hours

(HIGH CONFIDENCE) RF ISR identifies a concentrated element of Plan 7-B MOD vehicles, which is then immediately hit by a coordinated KAB strike. Simultaneously, tactical C2 nodes supporting the maneuver are successfully jammed or hit, leading to localized unit isolation. The resulting unit fragmentation, combined with proximal surrender propaganda, leads to a cascade of localized tactical surrenders, rendering Plan 7-B MOD ineffective and opening the door for RF deep exploitation.

5.3. Timeline Estimates and Decision Points (CRITICAL STATUS)

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6. INTELLIGENCE GAPS AND COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS

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7. ACTIONABLE RECOMMENDATIONS

The enemy has escalated kinetic fire with psychological pressure. Recommendations focus on immediate military countermeasures and cognitive resilience.

1. AIR DEFENSE (AIR FORCE / J-3): VALIDATE AND EXECUTE SHORAD RE-TASKING.

   • Action: Immediately confirm successful commitment of all available mobile SHORAD (Gepard, Avenger, MANPADS teams) to act as a close-in, layered traveling screen for Plan 7-B MOD elements. The priority must be KAB deflection/destruction, not UAVs in the North.
   • Rationale: The threat to the operational reserve is existential. Any delay in SHORAD allocation will result in catastrophic loss.

2. OPERATIONAL MANEUVER (J3): HARDEN C2 AGAINST PSYOP/JAMMING.

   • Action: Disseminate an immediate, concise Counter-Propaganda message to all units in the Pokrovsk sector (via secure comms only). Explicitly state that the leaflets are a sign of enemy desperation and must be ignored. Institute EMCON Level 2 protocols (Restrict non-essential transmissions) for Plan 7-B MOD elements and prepare for an immediate shift to secondary/tertiary communication methods if tactical jamming begins.
   • Rationale: The synchronization of PSYOP and kinetic fire is designed to break C2 and morale. Counter-messaging and hardened C2 protocols are the immediate defense.

3. STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS (STRATCOM): REFUSE ALL DIPLOMATIC DIVERSIONS.

   • Action: Reiterate the STRATCOM directive: Total refusal to comment on the "European counter-proposal" or any other diplomatic fiction. Immediately pivot all messaging to the confirmed brutality of the KAB strikes and the war crimes associated with forcing surrenders under aerial bombardment.
   • Rationale: Deny the enemy the ability to consume UAF strategic attention while the critical tactical maneuver is underway.

//END SITREP//